Posted on 10/28/2004 4:30:40 AM PDT by shrinkermd
"The polls have President Bush and Sen. John Kerry neck-and-neck, but I do not believe that is true. It is not that I believe that the polls are intrinsically inaccurate, but rather that this election is so profoundly important for the future of the nation that many voters will make up their minds, or change their minds, at the last moment.
" I have no scientific evidence, but my decades of experience covering politics leads me to a piece of unconventional wisdom — that the election will not be a tight horse race but that Mr. Bush will win re-election by at least 5 percentage points, and even more in the Electoral College.
(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...
Not all are gloomcasters.
Good read, and the new Bush ad will just put the nail in Kerry's coffin.
http://www.georgewbush.com
My prediction: Bush 65.17%, Kerry 34.75%
I think many are going to be very surprised on Wednesday morning.
bump!
On target.
Kerry 44%.
Any political ad that brings tears to the eyes is effective.
That's the best one ever.
God Bless President George W. Bush.
no fraud or fraud kept to a minimum = gwb - 2nd term
And that's the ONLY way Kerry is EVER getting a "44" next to his name!
:-)
I live in a Dem strong hold in Nassau County. Last night at the ATM an older couple (65+) wearing Kerry buttons joked that it was OK to be there with me because I wasn't wearing a Bush button. They were joking and assuming that I was on their team. I said, nope - wife, two voting age kids and I all solid Bush voters. Things were very light, not at all tense, very civil. After doing my business I wished them luck. The woman responded..."Thanks, we'll need it." Very surprising and I hope very prescient.
I don't think the difference will be that large, but I do think it could be as large as 10%. This election is not the neck-and-neck horserace that it's being portrayed as.
However, if the mainstream media was honest, and if the Democratic party was honest about it's beliefs, I think your percentages would be exactly correct.
That's not going to indyce a surprise, that'sgoing to induce a coma! No way will it be that, sorry.
Agreed. The "whatever it takes" Bush ad is the best, most powerful ad of the campaign season! And that is saying a lot because the "wolf" ad is also very effective.
Your both probably right, but a few days ago, there was a thread about some schoolkids voting and they predicted that large a margin. (I can't find it in my ping list; winxp pro keeps locking-up when I rapidly go through that list) Supposedly, they haven't been wrong in many years. And since there's no money riding on this *prediction*, I'll stay with it, just for grins. Hey, one can hope...
I expect Bush to win and it to not be really that close - Bush 51 to Kerry 45 or so, with Dubya winning 325 or so EVs.
Not that I'm saying Kerry's going to win, but I'm not impressed with the article's analysis.
I'd love to belive it's true, but the left's hatred of GW is so strong it is irrational. Unfortunately I can attest to this because I have tried to talk to these people. It completely confounds me. They are in love with 'Anybody But Bush'.
Mr. Gross presented a rational arguement. If I were a Democrat, I'd be seething with anger that such a putz ended up being nominated by my party. Yet the one's I know voting for Kerry are doing so because he is not Bush.
That is one awesome ad!!!
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