Posted on 10/27/2004 9:39:51 PM PDT by anonposter
WASHINGTON -- Pollster John Zogby surprised the political world back in April with a long-range prediction that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for president. On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the president is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.
That conclusion would be a surprise for frantically nervous Republicans and cautiously upbeat Democrats entering the campaign's final days. In fact, nobody, including Zogby and all the other polltakers, can be sure who will win this election. Yet, it is clear that President Bush's strategists have succeeded in solidifying his base to a degree that makes it much harder to defeat him next Tuesday.
The long, tortuous presidential contest has come down to who the "security mom" thinks can best protect her family against terrorism. Based on current polling data, Bush has won that argument in the face of Sen. Kerry's relentless attacks. That explains why the Democratic nominee this week was not talking about health care or other standby issues of his party, but was trying to pierce Bush's security shield by harping on the disappearance of munitions in Iraq.
The difficulty that Kerry now encounters has been shrouded by misleading overnight tracking from last weekend, showing a Democratic surge that is common in Friday-through-Sunday polling. Otherwise, Kerry is in trouble. When Zogby had second thoughts Monday, he found Bush with a national lead of three percentage points and an undecided vote of only 2.7 percent.
The data shows the undecided voters in Bush's base are resolving their misgivings about the president. Zogby's subgroups in the Republican base -- such as investors, military and married couples -- are returning to Bush.
Zogby shows Kerry's advantage among women is only three percentage points, exactly the same margin reflected in the nightly tracking by Republican pollster Ed Goeas. The Goeas poll shows a 13-percentage point Bush advantage among men. Goeas's poll has white men favoring Bush over Kerry, 58 percent to 35 percent. Remarkably, the count among white married women is not far behind: 53 percent for Bush, 42 percent for Kerry. The problem for the Democrats is Bush's continued large lead over Kerry concerning which candidate voters prefer to fight terrorism.
If these numbers hold up, the campaign strategy of Bush political adviser Karl Rove will be vindicated. While Kerry's strategy seems to have a thousand fathers, no presidential campaign in my experience has been so completely in the hands of one man as Bush's. Amid much private criticism in GOP ranks, Rove has concentrated on mobilizing the base behind Bush as the anti-terror candidate rather than making conventional overtures to undecided centrists.
With his base secure this week, the Bush strategy did turn to Democratic voters -- not with the usual leftward turn but appealing to hard-liners who have trouble accepting Kerry leading the war against terror. Campaigning in Wisconsin Tuesday, Bush invoked the memory of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman and John F. Kennedy for their "resolve in times of war and in hours of crisis" -- drawing an unfavorable comparison with Kerry. Bush is after the security moms, Republican or Democrat.
On the same day, the Kerry campaign threw out previous plans and made the candidate's centerpiece a New York Times report of 380 tons of explosives found missing from Iraq. Although NBC embedded reporters said the explosives were gone when U.S. troops arrived in March 2003, Kerry insisted for two days that this was another example of Bush's inadequacy in waging the war on terror. Whether such a complex issue appeals to security moms is another matter.
A lot can happen in the next few days. In 2000, Zogby had Bush three percentage points ahead at this stage, but Al Gore seized the lead because of the attack on Social Security privatization and the revelation of Bush's drunk driving case.
Kerry needs what he has been unable to accomplish so far: a direct hit on Bush's anti-terrorism credentials. It is hard to imagine a Democratic victory without removing those security moms from under Bush's anti-terrorism banner.
No kidding. Very few chicken littles on here that I've seen. Take a trip over to the DUmbass DUgout and there is fear abounding.
"Novak has been sour on Dubya throughout this election cycle. Now it seems that he is coming around."
The man broke his hip. He probably is confined to a bed as he writes. This has given him time to think a little more.
Yes, but they don't know that.
Nothing personal, but your remarks are why women shouldn't be allowed to vote. This is why Clinton was elected, too.
The office has become a TV-handsome contest.
I'm sorry if this upsets some women, but you know I'm right.
lol
oh they are all wathcing him eat soup..lOL
;^D
Real men in blue jeans always get me going.
Real men in blue jeans always get me going.
"Nothing personal, but your remarks are why women shouldn't be allowed to vote. This is why Clinton was elected, too."
Pardner, us men are not much better. We are just as prone, if not more so, to act on hormones not reason. I think there are men that post here that would kill someone if Ann Coulter asked them; and not because they admire her brain.
I'm not at all sure what to make of this. This is an astounding admission if true.
He needs to be right to stay in business, its his livelyhood.
He took a gamble on Kerry, and it looks like he lost, now he's just trying to cut his losses.
I do not think Novak would make it up.
I think Zogby really told him that.
I agree, but still -- it is an astounding admission.
I don't doubt it. I meant to convey more the idea that Bush must be doing even better than we all think he is doing if even Zogby -- who has publicly gone out on a limb for months predicting a Kerry win -- is now reversing himself.
Good.....didnt direct that to you personally.....but i just hear a lot of talk lately about how we're gonna win in a ladnslide, etc....gets me edgy cuz I remember 4 yrs ago, the same thing happened with Rove predicting 300+ EV......
I know the DUI story had an impact, but I guess I'm just paranoid..the last year or so has made me very pessimistic about the American peoples' judgment- so when good news arrives I tend to doubt it.
Well. We'll see what he carries. With this attempt at the second DUI story by Kerry, and it's failure, means that we may have smooth sailing into November 2nd. We'll continue to hope and pray it goes through with that 300+ win.
Too much testosterone and not enough cool, dispassionate brain matter.
I'll take this pic over Kerry in his mustard barn coat any day. But can we PLEASE have a brush-clearing picture?
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