Bush leads Kerry by 12 points (53-41) in rural battleground rural parts of 17 swing states

The Center for Rural Strategies ^ | 10/23/04

[Cableguy]

Republican George W. Bush maintains a 12-point lead over Democrat John Kerry among rural voters in battleground states, according to the most recent poll by the 80-55 Coalition for Rural America.

Among likely voters in rural parts of 17 swing states, 53 percent favor Bush while 41 percent favor Kerry. The result is essentially unchanged from September, when Bush led the rural battleground by 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent.

"President Bush has solidified his vote in the rural areas," said Bill Greener, a Republican strategist and an adviser to the poll. "I believe this will be sufficient to tip the scales in several critical states and give the president a victory overall."

Adviser Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, said the survey showed Kerry continued to perform better on economic issues among rural voters.

"For Democrats the good news is that Kerry improved his standing among rural blue-collar voters," Greenberg said. "If the discussion moves to economic recovery in rural America, Kerry is going to continue to pick up votes there."

The 2004 campaign has seen an increasing emphasis put on attracting rural voters, said Dee Davis, president of the Center for Rural Strategies, which commissioned the poll.

"When we see Bush speaking in front of hay bales and Kerry walking a field with a shotgun cradled in his arm, we get the message that the rural vote is important," Davis said. "This election could very well be determined in the next few days by the rural margins in a few states."

The poll also found that:

• Bush continues to receive heavy support from devout Evangelical Christians in the rural battleground (73 percent). Rural mainline Protestants and Catholics were more evenly split between the two candidates (51 percent prefer Kerry).
• Bush has strong support from rural gun owners. Among those who own three or more guns, Bush leads by 22 points, 59 to 37 percent. Non gun-owners in the rural battleground prefer Kerry by 9 points, 52 to 43 percent.
• Bush lost ground among rural women in the past month, moving from a 10 point advantage in September (53 percent Bush to 43 percent Kerry) to a 7 point advantage in October (51 to 44 percent).
• Bush improved among rural senior citizens, going from 42 percent support in September to 53 percent in October.
• Kerry improved his performance with rural blue collar voters, increasing from 43 percent in September to 50 percent in October.
• Kerry improved among rural older women, from 46 percent in September to 50 percent in October.
• Rural battleground voters are slightly more optimistic than the rest of the country about the direction the nation is headed, but nearly half (49 percent) still think the country is on the wrong track. Nationally, 55 percent of likely voters think the nation is on the wrong track.

The nonpartisan poll was commissioned on behalf of the 80-55 Coalition for Rural America, composed of groups and individuals across the United States who seek to improve opportunities for rural communities. The coalition is named for the fact that 80 percent of the nation's land area is rural, as are 55 million of its residents.

The poll interviewed 513 likely voters on Oct. 19-20 from non-metropolitan counties in Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percent.

[Cableguy]

ping

[CzarNicky]

Now we're polling parts of states?

[governsleastgovernsbest]

This past Friday I drove for about one hour on back roads through rural Pennsylvania, from Pine Grove to Lancaster. Until I got to the Lancaster outskirts, Bush signs outnumbered Kerry signs by about 100:1.

[Ravi]

I wonder if there were any results from 2000.

[smiley]

I'm so angry at Kerry and Edwards I can't even see straight! What a couple of snakes they are turning out to be! Lie after lie after lie after lie....hurting our President, our troops and this country! Despicable pos.

[jjmcgo]

Did you stop and bet the double at Penn National?

[Merry]

It always depends on how much fraud goes on in the big cities. I see this in Illinois. The state is pretty Republican except for chicago. By the time the dead vote and each voter votes 10 times in the city, it overwhelms the vote total from the rest of the state. I am worried about Philadelphia again. Last election, Philadelphia precincts with the help of Jesse Jackson, were polling over 100%.

[WoodstockCat]

I believe that the Bush campaign made a concerted effort to do the ground work to reach the rural areas, the red counties on that red/blue map from 2000. They decided that rather than spend money in the cities per se, they would drive up their numbers in these areas with organization and commitment.

Soros and the Dems tried to counter with massive registration in areas where the voter intent is not near as committed or strong, witness the "paid" volunteers turning in cartoon names.

[governsleastgovernsbest]

Don't think I passed it. I was on 501 all the way.

[NittanyLion]

In related news, polls show that among voters in Philadelphia Kerry leads 118% to -7%.

[IndianPrincessOK]

Thank God we only have 6 days to go....this is really devastating to our countrys morale...It is an eye opener at just how low and scummy they will go to win. Good will prevail, Bush will win and could very well be by a landslide...America is tired of the negatives of Kerry and MSM!!!!

[Temple Owl]

But, they are being overwhelmed by Disney characters in Philly. Betty Boop, Pluto, Mickey Mouse, Snow White, Goofy, Tinker Bell, Donald Duck and his three nephews, Huey, Louie and Dewey are vot ing for Kerry.

[SolomoninSouthDakota]

"I'm so angry at Kerry and Edwards I can't even see straight! What a couple of snakes they are turning out to be! Lie after lie after lie after lie....hurting our President, our troops and this country! Despicable pos."

Many feel the same way. Hopefully those of us that do can channel the emotion into organized efforts to crush them both on election day.