Posted on 10/27/2004 9:16:45 AM PDT by propertius
WASHINGTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - A freak tie result in the U.S. presidential election could mean the House of Representatives would choose the next president, a scenario that would favor Republican incumbent George W. Bush.
But since the Senate would decide the vice presidency, Bush could end up with Democrat John Edwards.
If you thought the close 2000 presidential election was a mess, think about what could happen if the 2004 contest ended up as an Electoral College tie.
There's an outside chance of a tie because of the way the United States elects its president. Voters in 50 states and the District of Columbia select 538 representatives to the Electoral College. A winner needs 270 votes.
Nathan Ritchey, a Youngstown State University mathematician, calculates there's a 3.25 percent chance of a 269-269 tie in the electoral college. The odds have increased since late summer.
"Looking at the 10 closest states, there are 17 ways this can occur - 17 out of 1,024 possible outcomes," said Ritchey, who has been tracking statistics in this year's contest between Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts.
The odds of a tie fluctuates as states move on and off the "battleground" list according to the latest polls. After all, nobody a few months ago saw states like Hawaii, with four electoral votes, or Colorado, with nine, to be in play.
As recently as August, chances for a tie were only 1.4 percent, said Ritchey.
Even if Bush wins on Tuesday by a single electoral vote, there's still the possibility of a hitch.
A small town mayor in West Virginia, who is a Republican elector, may not cast his vote for Bush when the electors convene on Dec. 13.
"Gosh, I just don't know," South Charleston Mayor Richie Robb told Reuters. Robb said he admired the first President George Bush but opposes the son's Iraq and tax policies. As a Vietnam veteran, he resents the attacks on Kerry's war record.
FAITHLESS ELECTORS
There have been a handful of so-called faithless electors in the last century but none have ever decided the presidency. Robb acknowledged he could find himself in that position, but said a bit nervously, "I don't think it's likely."
Robb is the only possible "faithless elector" who has made his views public.
There is no federal law requiring electors to vote according to the results of the popular vote in their states, but some states do bind electors to popular vote results.
The only previous tie was in 1800 when Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr each got 73 electoral votes. The House chose Jefferson and Burr, under the system then in place, became vice president.
If the Bush-Kerry race tied, Bush would have an advantage in the Republican-dominated House under a system in which each state gets one vote, based on the makeup of its congressional delegation. The House is expected to remain Republican-run on Tuesday.
But should Democrats recapture the Senate, the outcome could be Republican Bush as president and Democrat Edwards as vice president.
After the monthlong dispute over the 2000 race, ultimately decided by the Supreme Court, most of the calls for reform have focused on the mechanics of voting - the voting machines - not the system itself.
But another squeaker, or another election in which the winner of the popular vote didn't become president, would probably be unsettling enough to create momentum for at least some change.
"If it does go into the House, people would feel disenfranchised," said Candice Nelson, an elections expert at American University.
University of Florida political scientist Michael Martinez said he has been too preoccupied with the potential mess next week to worry about reform next year.
"It could be anything - voter fraud in a battleground state, a fight over provisional ballots in Ohio, problems with voting machines in Dade County, Florida - or all of the above. Or something neither you nor I have even thought of," he said.
They can, but it's highly unusual and unlikely...
Rueters tries to write another story about a "close" election. Read the tea leaves people, this one is over.
But should Democrats recapture the Senate,
He could, yes. It's never decided an election, though, but if the final result was 270/268 and he flipped, it could happen.
True.
We'll gain 2 seats and Bush will win with 330+.
I am having a fit of giggles imagining Dubya with Edwards as his veep,,can you imagine. Remember how veeps used to go to funerals all the time? Edwards would be on permanent funeral duty. Meanwhile Cheney could be appointed as secy of state and drive Edwards nuts!!!
Could somebody post a plausible tie scenario. I had one where Kerry takes the Left coast, Northeast, Wisconsin, Michigan, Hawaii and Florida. Bush takes everything else and it's 269-269. But that doesn't account for the split electoral vote in Maine.
Exaggerated precision alert.
>>This chap can cast his vote against Bush when the electors convene even if thats not what the results of the poll in west virginia?
Seriously, he can, but he better hope nobody knows where he lives.
I'm not joking here.
I know! The idea is just unbelievable. One would have to assume that even if the democrats did take the Senate one or two would put country before party and vote for Cheney to avoid four years of confusion for the sake of making a petty point.
i'm a little slow this morning....i can see how bush would win the presidency in a tie, but how would edwards end up as veep?
That's kind of my feeling, too. The mainstream media is doing everything they can to make Kerry look good. If the best they can say is that the election will be a nailbiter, that leads me to believe that they privately realize that Bush is going to take this one.
House picks Prez. - Bush
Senate picks Veep. - Edwards if Dems gain control of Senate. Could not the Senate pick Kerry as Veep? That would be ultimately cooler. :)
"Could somebody post a plausible tie scenario."
Not very likely, but I guess its *plausible*.
Kerry Takes:
WA
OR
CA
MN
IA
WI
IL
FL
PA
Hawaii
and all of New England
Bush takes:
OH
NM
and all others.
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/index.html
Right, add in Illinois,Minnesota.
269 269. And as you pointed out, Bush COULD take 1 elector from maines 2nd district.
Kerry would throw himself off a bridge.
I may be a little confused about the process but I thought that if there was a tie in the electoral vote the House of Representatives will, not might, choose the next President. Reuters uses the phrase "could mean that the House of Representatives would choose the next President" as if it is optional.
Second, in the event of a tie and the House chooses the President and the Senate chooses the Vice President, is that House and Senate as they are on Nov 1 before the election, or on Nov 3 after the election?
The elector has said that he would not vote for Kerry. So, it could be 269-268.
ROTFLMAO!!!! You haven't been following the US Senate for a while have you ??????
They would Probably not install Edwards, but the Newly Defeated Tom Daschle.
Oh God how pathetic. How do I sign up for this loser parade?
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