Bush Expands Lead in Florida and Ohio according to updated Zogby State Polls.

Reuters.com ^ | 10/26/04 | Reuters

[njsketch]

Florida: Bush 49, Kerry 45 Iowa: Bush 45, Kerry 45 New Mexico: Bush 48, Kerry 43 Ohio: Bush 46, Kerry 44 Colorado: Kerry 49, Bush 47 Minnesota: Kerry 46, Bush 44 Nevada: Bush 49, Kerry 46 Michigan: Kerry 49, Bush 44 Wisconsin: Kerry 48, Bush 46 Penn: Kerry 49, Bush 45

I know some of you are not fond of Zogby state polls, but it is some more grist for the mill.

[Keith in Iowa]

It's that new recipe Zogby secret sauce again... or he's in full gluteous protectus mode...

[kesg]

My attitude towards Zogby is that because he is a Democrat who has stated publicly that he thinks Kerry will win, his polls are credible only when they show Bush with the lead.

[RWR8189]

Zogby state polls are not to be trusted...

[gypsylea]

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. At least the Florida expanding lead seems to track with GOP internals, according to my source down there-- Bush has gained in I-4 corridor, including with non-Cuban Hispanics, at least partly due to Martinez, whose story has finally (after hurricane distractions) started to resonate with that community.

Ohio polls are all over the place, I have to believe that any Republican who is at 48% + in the midwest as a whole, which is about where Bush is, can get to 50% in Ohio, which usually runs 2-4% average GOP vote.

[politicsfan]

Yeah the Colorado numbers are completely wrong. Bush won it by 8 points last time. He will win it by at least 6

[Reagan Man]

I can't speak for any state but my own. Zogby may have Kerry ahead of Bush in Colorado, but I don't buy it.

Accordiong to RCP, the most recent polls have had Bush significantly up on Kerry. Take a look. Ciruli is a local Colorado pollster.

Survey USA | 10/18-10/20 596 LV 4.1 52 45 - Bush +7

Ciruli Assoc | 10/15-10/19 600 LV 4.0 48 42 2 Bush +6

Rasmussen | 10/18 500 LV 4.5 50 45 - Bush +5

CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/14-17 666 LV 4.0 51 45 1 Bush +6

Mason-Dixon | 10/14-10/16 630 LV 4.0 49 43 1 Bush +6

[scottybk]

I think Kerry's internals show that he's in deep doo-doo. He has started running ads this week in Haiwaii, an electoral "prize" of 4 votes! Apparently, Bush is ahead in Hawaii by 3 pts. Remeber, this is the state that went to Carter in 1980 and dukkakis in 88- very, very liberal territory.
Looking at the big picture, I think the Klown is re-arranging the deck charis on the Titanic. I predict Bush takes WI, OH, FL, MN, Iowa, Hawaii, New Hampshire- this is going to be an electoral college slam dunk, folks.

[Nascardude]

If anybody has any doubt about Ohio. They should check out this link:

http://jaycost.blogspot.com/

If anybody has any doubt about Flordia. You should check out this link:

http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/10/bush-has-strong-advantage-in-florida.html



Read these and you'll feel a lot better.

[ambrose]

Zogby state polls are not to be trusted...

Senator Lazio concurs.

[NeoCaveman]

Senator Lazio concurs.

As does Senator Strickland of Colorado.

[Tall_Texan]

I hope Zogsauce is right because if Bush wins Ohio and Florida, the Dems are in a world of hurt. They'd either have to win Colorado or a combination of New Hampshire and Nevada *and*, in any scenario, win every state Gore won.

That ain't gonna be easy.

[Clump]

That is what I think. Although, we have to be cautious because some of his state polling can be way off. Look at Colorado. Even he doesn't think CO will turn blue (he said that on Hannity). All in all probably not too far off. Bush is in good shape with the EV. He just needs to make sure Kerry doesn't get any kind of a real national boost in the next 6 days.

[No Longer Free State]

or he's in full gluteous protectus mode...

More likely. Not a single one of these results is outside his MOE, so he's got plausible deniability.

[motife]

At Tradesports today for the first time New Mexico is in the Bush column.

As of today, Tradesports electoral vote is Bush 297 Kerry 241.

However, Ohio continues to move to Kerry in the odds.

Overall Bush's odds at Tradesports and IEM has fallen from the low 60's to the mid 50's.

[Porterville]

I only really trust Zogby and Gallup- I feel queezy about the other polls; these are the only two I wait for.

[plushaye]

Thanks for the insider info! Early October polls also showed the swingiest portion of the state - the I-4 corridor - was also swaying for the President. I heard the GOP-leaning northern part and an I-4 swing can outweigh the Dem southern part (Miami etc). That is really good news.

I truly believe that OH and FL will be both ours next Tuesday.

[Porterville]

It will be raining all next week in Ohio

[Porterville]

Actually will it be raining in the whole North East next week? This can be very good because I trust Florida is ours.... so it couldn't rain in a better sector of the United States.

[Porterville]

I love this part, Florida: Bush 49, Kerry 45