Analysis Of An October Surprise

polipundit.com ^ | Monday, October 25th, 2004 | Lorie Byrd

[cvq3842]

Thanks for input.

[mc5cents]

I have heard that there is an individual that has been trying to influence the Iowa Electronic Markets with huge buys and sells in order to force the Bush numbers down.

Do I smell Soros?

[RetiredArmy]

Fox is going that route also, probably to get a wider audience for advertising rates. I can't stand O'Reilly's voice anymore.

I feel your pain!!!! Ha! I know what you mean my friend. I quit watching him long ago. I read part of his first book. My wife had bought both for me at Costco (thankfully at a reduced price). Because I hated the first one, and threw them both in the trash. It was garbage. He is garbage. He has got to big for his liberal pants. Used to say he was in the middle. It was a big lie all the time. He is a stinking liberal, votes dem in my book.

[arkady_renko]

Moose,

I think you are right. I've also been wondering if there might be a back door attack through Cheney with some 'new' revelation about Halliburton, that evil empire. All they need is a 1-2% swing or a similar reduction in turnout.

On the other hand, what type of revelation about Kerry would dissuade his base from coming out? Let's see - they are pacifists, yet give him a wink about his war hero status. He is filthy rich because of his use of women, yet he gets a pass from the feminists. They are animal rights activists, yet he kills a goose. The worst thing that could be leaked about him to suppress his base would be???

Turnout is key, of course.

A_R

[wrathof59]

You are right, O'Reilly is as phony as they come.

[teletech]

I have heard that there is an individual that has been trying to influence the Iowa Electronic Markets with huge buys and sells in order to force the Bush numbers down. The effect is always short-lived however because there are plenty willing to buy with the Bush stock goes down.

So its being manipulated by some Kerry freak. That would explain the drastic change. It appears to be coming back up in the last hour.

[Moosilauke]

It's probably a pretty economical way to influence the race. Tradesports and IEM aren't very large markets. They get a lot more publicity than their investment base would warrent simply because it's such a neat idea. If you can generate a "Race Momentum Changes" headline in the MSM, then you've invigorated your troops and demoralized the opposition. All for a lot less cash (which doesn't even have to be reported) than it would take to run an ad campaign in the national media. (And your ad campaign probably won't change the race momentum!)

It's a beautiful strategy if you can make it work. And it's an instructive example of "unintended consequences" at work. Someone thought these kinds of markets would be a real nifty way of gauging public opinion; now they've become one more way of trying to shape public opinion.

[razzle]

O'Reilly is supporting Bush because Kerry wouldn't come on his show, otherwise he would be sucking up to the Senator like he did to Rosie O'Dumbell

[Colorado Doug]

I've also been wondering if there might be a back door attack through Cheney with some 'new' revelation about Halliburton

Watch for fRance to leak a false document about a french Halliburton subsidiary being on the take with Saddam's oil for food

[Moosilauke]

The worst thing that could be leaked about him to suppress his base would be???

You've hit the nail on the head. He's invulnerable to attack because even among his supporters, there is a pretty clear recognition that there's no there there. He's been invisible in the Senate for 20 years. They're not buying a leader, certainly not a moral example. He doesn't have to be anything...so long as he's not BUSH! That's the campaign in a nutshell.

[sevry]

I have not been watching much TV at all, just because of my schedule. But I hear Fox is becoming less reliable. I wonder what gives?

I believe it was due to a film that apparently only FOX employees and supervisors went to see - called, Outfoxed. They seem to have been utterly embarrassed by the complaints of the film. And that seems about the time they decided to try to become somewhat LM themselves. It's a shame. These people are supposed to be adults. They should know better than to be persuaded by leftist propaganda. They SHOULD . . know better.

[massgopguy]

When will Kerry start quoting the Zen philospher Basho?
"A doughnut with no holes, is a Danish". His sycophants will revel in his brilliance.

[arkady_renko]

Something like that is my guess.

A_R

[snooker]

the NYTimes and see-BS are guilty of journalistic malpractice.

If you can sue Sinclair why not CBS and the NYTimes? Class action suit anyone?

[PowerPro]

Another gem from the Daily Recycler:

http://www.dailyrecycler.com/blog/2004/10/nytrogate.html

[Arizona Carolyn]

Drudge said this was to be done on 60-minutes Sunday evening as THEIR October suprise. The Times jumped the scoop-- which worked to our advantage since MSNBC/NBC was able to debunk it.

I knew immedietly it was phoney because I remembered all the reporters showing us bunkers, schools, you name it, all full of weapons, explosives, etc... I remember a truck parked just full of stuff. They said it would take 10 or more years to blow everything up if we blew it up every day.

[Arizona Carolyn]

I'm mad that no one is covering the Kerry Vietnam stuff in the NY SUN today. I guess if the cables can't get if off the NY Times, it's not news.

[Billthedrill]

I'm inclined to agree, this is way too early, and look how quickly it was refuted. No, the Surprise this year will hit late Thursday or on Friday, so that the weekend will mute any refutation on the part of the Republicans.

The rules behind this sort of politicking are such that the ordinary standards of evidence do not apply - a shrill enough accusation will suffice as long as it can last three days. Corrections later on page 39, below the fold, as per usual practice.

And the MSM continues in its death spiral into irrelevance, and they wonder why.

[Greek]

Take heart, like the SeeBS story, this is going to back-fire and actually help Bush. They will next try to claim that Rove planted this false story to set them up...

[cvq3842]

I've heard of the film, and that it was a really easily debunked hatchet job. But it could well be that Fox is running scared. Maybe WE will have to scare them back!!!