Scientific Poll: President [SD - B55%-K36% Mason-Dixon (LV)]

KELOLAND TV ^ | 10/25/04 | Don Jorgensen

[conservative in nyc]

Most political pundits said Senator John Kerry out performed President Bush during their three presidential debates. But talk is cheap at least in the eyes of South Dakota voters.

Last week we randomly surveyed 800 registered voters in South Dakota by phone. And judging by the numbers, President Bush will easily win South Dakota's three electoral votes. The last time we took a scientific poll in the presidential race, 11% of the voters were still undecided on who they were going to vote for, President Bush or John Kerry.

"Probably because John Kerry is a fairly new commodity, he went a long way through the primary unrecognized everybody thought he wasn't going to make it, then he was the candidate, he had a lot less time," said KELOLAND News Analyst Steve Hemmingsen.

But it's clear as more people make up their minds, they're choosing President Bush. If the election were held today Bush would get 55% of the vote, Kerry would pick up 36%, 7% are still undecided.

Back in September when we took our poll Bush had 50% compared to Kerry's 37%. Some say the numbers changed because we're at war and South Dakota historically follows the leader.

"Virtually any war in the history of statehood, South Dakota has always been at the top of the list in terms of percentage of population taking part."

In September, South Dakota voters gave President Bush a 51% favorable rating, 33% unfavorable, 16% were neutral.

While John Kerry had a 30% favorable rating, 44% unfavorable, 25% were neutral.

Neither candidate has campaigned in South Dakota, but one month later the numbers have changed. 53% of the South Dakotan's recognized President Bush as favorable, 31% unfavorable. While John Kerry got a 32% favorable rating and a 46% unfavorable.

[conservative in nyc]

Not surprising. I found this while looking for new Thune-Daschle numbers.

Mason-Dixon also shows Herseth(D) over Diedrich by 4 (48-44) in the race for South Dakota's Congressional seat. 7% are STILL undecided, even though Herseth barely beat Deidrich the seat in a special election a few months ago.

[babydubya1981]

19 points? That's all. *lol* South Dakota ain't stupid

[GeronL]

Does that mean Daschle will be bye bye??????

[dawn53]

Well, they keep electing Daschle...so until they elect Thune, I'll hold my judgment on the state, LOL!

[GeronL]

South Dakota ain't stupid

Reserve judgement until after we find out the numbers for Daschle-Thune

[conservative in nyc]

I expect KELO and the Argus Leader to publish the Mason-Dixon Thune-Daschle numbers tomorrow. Hopefully, Thune will have the lead and we'll REALLY know South Dakota ain't stupid.

By the way, although the KELO article says Mason-Dixon interviewed registered voters, the Argus Leader article (which better describes methodology) says Mason-Dixon interviewed 800 likely voters from 10/19-21. The Argus Leader is a Gannette Snoozepaper, so we can't post the article here. MOE is +/- 3.5%, so the Congressional race is within the margin.

[babydubya1981]

LOL - Point made!

[MNJohnnie]

expect KELO and the Argus Leader to publish the Mason-Dixon Thune-Daschle numbers tomorrow. Hopefully, Thune will have the lead and we'll REALLY know South Dakota ain't stupid.


I hear the Argus endorsed Bush? True?

[conservative in nyc]

I hear the Argus endorsed Bush? True?

Yes. I'd post the editorial if it wasn't for their stupid corporate parent's rules.