Are Young Cell Phone Users Democrat Secret Weapon?

CNSNEWS.com ^ | 10/26/04 | Robert B. Bluey

[kattracks]

(CNSNews.com) - The 2004 presidential campaign has produced a new challenge for polling firms: Getting in touch with the millions of Americans - up to 5 percent of the electorate - who rely solely on their cell phones, and therefore can't be reached for public opinion surveys.

Since so many of those people are young and perceived to be Democratic, there is speculation that John Kerry's chances on Election Day might be better than pre-election polls have thus far indicated. Pollsters, however, seem unconcerned, claiming that individuals who only use cell phones represent a small portion of the electorate. They argue that the group doesn't favor Sen. John Kerry more than President Bush or vice versa.

"It is not a specific demographic," said Eric Nielsen, a spokesman for The Gallup Poll. "As a whole, the cell phone-only crowd is not homogeneous. They're heterogeneous. Their opinions, especially political and policy attitudes reflect those who have landlines."

Nielsen also disputed the notion that young cell phone users might give Kerry a slight edge that isn't showing up in polls. Government surveys have estimated 5 percent of households rely only on cell phones and Nielsen said young adults make up about 17 percent of the electorate.

Harvard University's Institute of Politics released a survey of young voters last week that gave Kerry a 13-point advantage over Bush. The latest Zogby tracking poll has Kerry up 57 percent to Bush's 43 percent among voters 18 to 24 years old.

But the college crowd won't be able to sway the election to Kerry, according to Nielsen, whose Gallup survey also shows the Democrat with an advantage among young voters.

"To get the overall number to move 1 percentage point," Nielsen said, "the cell phone-only group would have to be young people and it would have to be splitting 90 percent for one candidate or the other."

Despite the pro-Kerry polling numbers among young Americans, Alison Aikele, a spokeswoman for the College Republican National Committee, said she expects a much closer race. Aikele said the organization has registered 35,000 young Republicans, many of whom are actively volunteering on Bush's behalf.

"What is typically a shoe-in for the Democrats is now something Senator Kerry is struggling to keep," Aikele said. "We're finding our base much more energized."

The political influence of cell phone users has been a recurring topic in the news media in recent weeks. At a National Press Club event last week in Washington, pollsters Peter D. Hart and Neil Newhouse downplayed the consequences.

"While we may not be reaching people who have cell phones, we're not under-representing young people," said Hart, a Democrat who conducts the NBC-Wall St. Journal poll. He conceded however that "it may be harder for us to get to the young person."

Hart said his firm estimates about 4 percent of the population uses only cell phones. He said there's little evidence to suggest pollsters are getting misled as a result, although Hart acknowledged that it's an assumption.

"With respect to the younger voters who have nothing but cell phones, you know what? We miss those people," said Newhouse, a partner at the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies. "We can't reach them. It's illegal for us to call them."

Federal law prohibits polling firms from contacting cell phone users because they could incur charges. John Zogby, president and chief executive of Zogby International, has predicted a crisis in years to come.

"It is illegal for polling firms to call cell phones, coupling that with the rapidly increasing rate of cell phone use and the gradual decrease of landlines, the polling industry will face a crisis within a decade," Zogby wrote in September. "For now, the 170 million cell phones are largely duplicates and triplicates of landlines."

Pollster Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, agreed that by 2006 and 2008, cell phones would force some changes in the way polling firms conducted their surveys. But he also said pollsters have dealt with similar challenges in the past.

"You have to put cell phones in the context of everything else that has happened in the last 10 years," Rasmussen said. "Answering machines and caller ID have made polling more challenging. There was a time not too long ago when the phone rang and people felt compelled to answer it. They don’t have that sense anymore. Cell phones are another complication."

E-mail a news tip to Robert B. Bluey.

Send a Letter to the Editor about this article.

[MikefromOhio]

All this really is is a false hope. They HOPE that 5% of the young voters that make up this demographic are democratic....im telling you what, of that 5%, about 50% is actually more conservative....

[Calico Cat]

My husband and I use cell phones as our only phones and we're both members of the VRWC.

[Kornev]

I only use cell phone.. This is such a bizarre thing to cling to. I doubt the numbers are all that terribly different from the last election.

[LegendHasIt]

Don't hold your breath Kerry.

I live in a little town, not a lot of political activism, or even much interest until recently here. I've been working down at our local Republican headquarters for the last week... and have been astounded and very pleased at the number of high school kids and young adults that not only support President Bush and despise Kerry; A LOT of them are coming in to actually volunteer: they are working the phones, passing out flyers, offering to whatever they can to help.

Also getting a lot of help from a rather surprising source: The Apache Reservation right outside of town; Normally apolitical or Democrat, many of them oppose Kerry vigorously, and a surprising number just LOVE President Bush and are working their tails off to convince their other tribal members to get out and vote to re-elect "Dubya"

Oh, and I'm a VWRC / cell phone only guy too.

[SoDak]

I cut my land-line in 2000. I'm exclusively using a cell. A lot of guys I know and work with have done the same, and we're all Bush-backers, so I wouldn't count on it.

[Pharlap]

If a significantly large number of "young voters" use cell phones and, therefore, cannot be polled, then how do the pollsters definitively conclude that Kerry has a substantial lead among this demographic. Either they are being polled or they are not being polled.

[Mayflower Sister]

Me too! Cell phone only - VRWC member!

[veronica]

The cell phone thing strikes me as absurd.

[matymac]

I remember weeks before the Iowa Caucuses and the NH Primary, Howard Dean was asked about his shrinking poll numbers and he responded that polls don't reach his most vital supporters...young voters with cell phones. Well it looks like those voters had their phones shut off on election day...because they never showed up. Oh how I miss Howard!

[Wiser now]

This really is a false hope and another (yawn) stereotype. Two of my daughters have only cell phones. Neither are registered to vote, and neither can stand Kerry!

[Perdogg]

Ask Howard Dean.

[the invisib1e hand]

Are Young Cell Phone Users Democrat Secret Weapon?

if so, we can all go back to sleep.

[rep-always]

Ditto. No home phone. Four cell phones in my home. Husband and I, son, daughter, all members of the VAST RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY AND PROUD PRESIDENT BUSH SUPPORTERS in South Florida. We have already voted.