Posted on 10/25/2004 8:33:43 PM PDT by JingoJim
WASHINGTON - President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry, in a race dividing Americans far more along lines of cultural values than economic interests, remain locked in a dead heat one week before election day, a Times Poll has found.
BUT CHECK THE DELUSIONAL INTERNALS HERE http://www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2004-10/14807601.pdf
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
Second, party breakdown is as follows.
D R I
Bush 10% 96% 49%
Kerry 89% 2% 47%
Looking at the break down one can see that if total R's and D's are close that Bush has to lead by at least 5-6%. So what party breakdown does the poll use? Reverse engineering the numbers, assuming I = 26%, gives total R weighting = 33.66 and total D weighting = 39.44%! Almost 6% higher for D's! Not even close and I am using Bush +1% over Kerry! Zogby uses D at +4 to Rs and he has Bush +3.
I won't waste my time looking for a third point. A junk poll.
http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/news/082403_nw_recall_poll.html
Poll Shows Bustamante Leading Schwarzenegger
LOS ANGELES — Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante has a significant lead over actor Arnold Schwarzenegger in the recall race according to the latest poll.
An LA Times poll released today finds 35 percent backing Bustamante, a Democrat, and 22 percent supporting Schwarzenegger, a Republican.
-snip-
The MSM is doing whatever it can to discourage GOP turnout. They are truly despicable.
Dang, you beat me to it. Great minds and all that . . . you're right, it's a junk poll, greatly oversampling Dems because it was done on a weekend. Not too surprising that the LA Times would pull something like this, they're kind of like the NY Times with a slightly better reputation.
pure garbage. what do we expect from the terminate the terminator bunch
you know, there is a term for this type of thing. It is called face validity. Without even looking at the specifics, when you see men break for Kerry, women for Bush, stop right there and put down the paper. This poll is garbage. But you know what will get play? That this election if razor thin. Go look at the CNN website. Bush is up 5 in the LV model, but the way you read the headline at CNN, you wouldn't be able to tell that. This seems to me that the media are in meltdown mode right now. Kerry can't seem to find any momentum, so if that's the case, the MSM have to make it up.
Kerry's leading the "Men" category....HA HA HA. That's funny.
If it is weighted that way it's a good poll. With a weight of about 6+ more Dems and Kerry can only break even, he's toast.
They probably took their sample of "men" from San Francisco.
The internals make no sense at all.
Kerry leading among men? Bush leading among women?
85% "concerned" that we will get "bogged down" in Iraq?
This isn't a serious poll. It was a "push poll", with specious demographics.
The models start with the assumption that the race will be close and adjust the data in creative ways to make it happen.
Kerry will get 43%, the most a northeast liberal can garner in a national election.
LOL ..I guess that would be NUWWWSAHHHNCE for Senator Waffle
I'll give him 45%. What these weights don't do for the numbers (even while showing the percentages) is take in to consideration the 20% of Dems going for Bush...the 15-20% of blacks, the fact women are going for Bush overall, and the huge gains for Bush in the Catholic and Jewish vote.
When you weight it down with more Dems, these higher numbers for Bush among these groups get lost in the sheer volume.
It looks like "Fuzzy math" to me. Where did that line go?
I still remember that LA Times poll over the recall....haha
LA TIMES is the propaganda machine of the Democratic party(one of many)
Your individual observations don't mean a hill of beans on a national level. And I've read and heard many blacks in Philly say just the opposite. Just because you haven't doesn't make it so.
Take the time to look at the internals of all these polls and you'll find Bush getting 15-20% of black votes. They all show it.
It's like the old story of some NY elitist (whose name escapes me right now) that in 1972 said, "I don't know how Nixon won...I don't know anyone that voted for him".
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