Posted on 10/25/2004 7:33:50 AM PDT by The G Man
UPDATE 10/25: President Bush continues to maintain a structural edge in the Electoral College that has worked to his advantage this entire campaign. However, the states that are producing that advantage have shifted since the summer.
In our initial Electoral analysis we suggested that the election would boil down to Florida and Ohio, with Kerry having to win one of those two states and President Bush simply needing to carry them both to gain reelection. At the time we suggested that one of the President 's advantages was the possibility of offsetting a loss in Ohio or Florida by poaching some of the Gore states (IA, WI, MN NM, and OR), giving the President an alternate option of collecting an EC majority that Senator Kerry really never had.
As of today this alternate option, if necessary, for President Bush is starting to look more and more like a very real possibility. Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico are fully in play: eight days before the election Bush holds leads in the RCP State Averages in all four of these states. This is seriously complicating Kerry's strategy in getting to 270 Electoral Votes. Conventional wisdom for months, including RCP's, had been that whoever won two of the "big three" Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida would almost certainly become President.
While it may still be likely that whoever carries two out of those three will win the election, it is not the cut and dry proposition it was earlier. President Bush can offset a loss in Ohio (and New Hampshire) by carrying Wisconsin and either Iowa, New Mexico or Minnesota. He can offset a loss in Florida (and New Hampshire), by winning three of those four states. Winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine's 1 Electoral Vote and holding New Hampshire would also allow President Bush to gain reelection while losing Florida.
Turning the conventional wisdom completely on its head President Bush could even lose all three of Ohio, Pennsylvanian and Florida and still win, as long as he was able to flip Michigan. Granted, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Kerry would win Pennsylvania and Ohio yet lose Michigan, but with a poll in Michigan showing the President ahead by five and Mason-Dixon calling it a one point race, coupled with a gay marriage initiative and Ralph Nader on the ballot (unlike PA and OH), it's not totally impossible. In this scenario Bush victories in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could offset the loss of Florida's 27 Electoral Votes and Michigan would offset a loss in Ohio, leaving Kerry with a measly three electoral vote pick up.
While the Michigan option is a little far-fetched the other two are not. The problem for Kerry is he has no backup plan to not winning in either Florida or Ohio. The problem for President Bush is that Kerry is still very much alive in both those states. All of Bush's backup Electoral scenarios will be irrelevant if he loses FL and OH and Kerry hangs on to PA and MI.
As the race sits today, the President holds roughly a three point lead in the national race. At the state level, using the RCP state averages to allocate the Electoral College, President Bush would win 306 - 232. However, the final movement in the national polls will have an exaggerated effect on that electoral tally. If Bush starts to pull away this week and can close strong building back toward his 5-7 point lead of September, that Electoral number could easily expand to 352 - 186. A small tightening towards Kerry in the final days from where we are today would indicate a dead heat race, where many of those electoral scenarios mentioned above could very well come into play. A strong break towards Kerry and most of these states would flip his direction leading to something like a 311 - 227 Kerry win.
Keep an eye on the RCP National Average. Eight days out it shows Bush ahead by roughly three points. Where that number is a week from today will be the best tell on how this race will turnout.
Kerry has to win EITHER OH or FL, Bush has to win BOTH to win? No bias there.
Weekly Reader Poll has Bush at 60 and Kerry at 33 or so.
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47.8
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47.0
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1.3
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Bush +0.8
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|
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47.4
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46.8
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OffBallot
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Bush +0.6
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|
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45.5
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48.7
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OffBallot
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Kerry +3.2
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|
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48.0
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44.8
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1.0
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Bush +3.3
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44.7
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48.7
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1.0
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Kerry +4.0
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| Minnesota | 10/15 - 10/24 |
46.7
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45.7
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2.0
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Bush +1.0
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47.6
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45.6
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2.0
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Bush +2.0
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50.0
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44.7
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OffBallot
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Bush +5.3
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45.8
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46.5
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1.0
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Kerry +0.7
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49.2
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43.8
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1.0
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Bush +5.4
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49.0
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45.0
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1.0
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Bush +4.0
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48.0
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45.3
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1.0
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Bush +2.7
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| Oregon | 10/9-10/18 |
44.9
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49.4
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1.5
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Kerry +4.5
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49.2
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44.8
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1.3
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Bush +4.4
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42.0
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50.5
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1.0
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Kerry +8.5
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48.3
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46.3
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1.5
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Bush +2.0
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44.7
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43.8
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-
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Bush +0.9
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Can't wait for this week to get over!
Duh, I guess with all the expected fraud in PA, they figure it to be in the bag. As opposed to Tuhrayzuh, who is always half in the bag.
You are going to hear the same thing in the Bush interview with Hannity. Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico are fully in play and the "Bush Strike Teams" will probably be sent out there.
I also wonder now with the only 2 recent polls available for Hawaii BOTH showing Bush in the lead, why it is not a tossup?
Even Zogby shows Bush up by 5 in Ohio.
And they've been right every time since Ike's day! I'll go with them. (Not meant as sarcasm, but I like their result!!! And it's almost as "scientific" as all these other crystal-ball gazers.) At least I HOPE they are right!
I think Illinois could prove to be a surprise for Kerry also. He dropped from 55% to 50%. I do not think enought dead people in Chicago will make it to the polls.
Boy, that's really going out on a limb.
How is there bias? It's simple math my friend.
Too cool if HI goes for Bush. The wife and I are trying to move there by next August if possible. A Bush win in HI would make me feel better about moving there. Lots of hippies on the Big Island, which will make us feel right at home - Athens County, Ohio is where we live now - Berkeley of the East.
Hopefully Keyes can break 30%.
Only if you figure PA going Kerry as a foregone conclusion. When they said this it was to early to do that, IMO. Now it does look like it's maybe in the bag, barring a huge swing.
It's the other way around. Kerry must win both but Bush would still win if he got WI and IA and lost Ohio.
Americans MUST hold steadfast.
The centre MUST hold. The worst are full of passionate intensity. A British newspaper calls for assassination. The wife of the vice presidential nominee foresees riots if her husband looses. Shots are fired in Republican headquarters. Democrat voter fraud is rampant.
However, the best are NOT lacking in conviction! And this is the world's greatest hope.
The American Heartland--Bush Country--must remain resolute!
President Bush MUST be re-elected.
The fate of the U.S.A. and the fate of the world depend upon it!
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