Don't forget all the polls called it a tight race for John Howard earlier this month. One even predicted a victory for his opponent. We all know how the election turned out in Australia.
This Florida thing is kind of puzzling like your Oz example. Surely Bush should have that one in the bag. You'd think.
Add to that the Gray Davis Recall, goldstategop.
Barone is a very sharp analyst.
Jack.
We know there were at least 2.9 million voters for whom Al (Earth in the Balance) Gore was not green enough. They could not vote for Gore or Bush so they voted for Nader. With Nader off the ballot in many states, and getting next to no publicity on his issues, the protest vote will mostly say home. Those voters are 3 of the 4 percent who are undecided voters.
This election will be won by turn out. It is obvious that Democrats are having trouble with its base. Kerry has flipped and flopped and the media in an attempt to help Kerry have presented him as for more conservative than he is. The Kerry campaign has gone to great lengths to present him as a strong warrior, who would win the war that Quote Bush is losing. That will win few if any Bush voters, but it will drive away Democratic base.
So Kerry with his flip flop campaign has managed to cool the passions of the left. They are where they were in May of this year. They hate Bush and are indifferent to Kerry. They are at the anybody but Bush stage.
Jonathon Rugman is a British ITN reporter covering this election for the most popular network in Britain.
He told me his networks polling showed Americans have always gone to the polls to vote FOR someone. He told me a month ago, that unless Kerry found a reason to vote for him, that resonated with voters, the democratic base turn out would likely be much lower than in 2000.
The fact that Kerry and all his helpers are still trying to win the black vote, tells us they are in some degree of trouble.
But if bush wins this election 52 to 47, then it will be because the Democratic base did not vote in the numbers required to win. It also will require that the Republican base turn out in 2000 like numbers.
One final note