[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Well the one that Bush didn't lead was a very screwed up poll. Very well dissected on PoliPundit: I'll borrow from what I posted on this thread:

TIME Poll: Bush Opens 5 Point Lead Against Kerry

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This is very fascinating;

Ipsos and Bias

From the first few paragraphs of PoliPundit:

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Saturday, October 23rd, 2004

Ipsos and Bias

Well, the new AP/Ipsos poll is out, and just like the last one they put out, it is both unique in its claims and peculiar in its information. This article is meant to address the poll from the perspective of its internal data. To do this effectively, I will first present the poll in the context of the surrounding polls from this week, and then I will compare the salient sectors from the relevant polls.

First off, as many other readers have observed, the AP poll was cited in pretty much every major media center since its release, broadcasting Kerry’s 3-point lead in the AP poll, and ignoring the fact that the AP poll is the only poll presently showing Kerry with the lead; the consensus is that Bush leads by an average of 3 points or so, and there are two major polls showing Bush with 5 point leads, even one with Bush ahead by 8. It’s not AP’s fault that other polls are not cited, but it shows a clear bias by the Old Media, that the outlier should be stressed, and the majority discarded.

[Happy2BMe]

There is a really good link (if I can find it) showing the Electoral College voting poll.

(In everyone I've seen, the EC elects Bush.)

[lazlohollyfeld]

Ipsos is a European company (HQ is in Paris, I think) and, as far as I know, hasn't done much in the U.S. They do get their polls correct in Europe but their methods are likely different. Even if they have bought a polling company in the U.S., I suspect they require adherence to their methodology. I have a friend who does focus groups for them and the report is hundreds of pages where a report done in the U.S. is usually less than 30 or 40 pages.