52-47 has been my call too. I'm also calling 300-302 electoral votes.
I'd love to see their internal polling. I just don't get how anyone can honestly think Bush will lose this race. He's BEATING Kerry in Minnesota (+2), New Mexico (+5), Wisconsin (+3), Iowa (+5), and Hawaii (+1), he's tied in Florida and Ohio (although two new polls out in OH have him up by 4 - Rasmussen - and 5 - Zogby), and he's seriously tied or slightly trailing in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
Colorado isn't even close, no poll has showed Kerry within 5 points in the past six polls, Kerry just pulled ads there today. Nevada, supposedly, has a 2 to 1 Republican lead in early voting and Bush is still polling above +4 in most polls. Arkansas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Tennessee are all out of the picture now.
Essentially Kerry's going to need a straight flush here.
If its 52-47, the electoral vote tally for Bush will necessarily be much higher than 300 EV.