Snapshot of Bush/Kerry visits, polls, ads in each swing state (Bush ads down, Kerry up, RNC AWOL)

ABC News, RealClearPolitics, CNN/TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG | 10/24/04 | Cableguy

[Cableguy]

		Bush					Kerry
	Elect	Bush	GOP	Bush	RNC	Rep	Kerry	Dem	Kerry	DNC	Dem
	Votes	Visit	Visit	Ads	Ads	527s	Visit	Visit	Ads	Ads	527s
Tier I: Heavy advertising, true battleground states										8	States
FL	27	10/23	10/21 D	3,090	0	131	10/24	10/23 E	3,505	1,816	1,020
OH	20	10/27	10/25 C	2,385	0	814	10/21	10/25 E	2,206	1,724	355
MI	17	10/27	10/20 C	676	0	0	10/25	10/23 L	1,121	84	0
MN	10	10/20	10/12 C	325	0	27	10/27	10/26 E	529	215	0
WI	10	10/26	10/22 L	1,146	0	458	10/28	10/25 E	1,361	675	139
IA	7	10/25	10/22 C	672	0	318	10/27	10/26 L	1,157	538	31
NM	5	10/24	10/23 C	687	0	218	10/26	10/22 C	973	257	38
NH	4	10/1	10/21 L	553	0	0	10/25	10/22 A	268	249	0
Tier II: Heavy/moderate advertising, swinging to Bush/Kerry										5	States
PA	21	10/27	10/19 L	1,877	0	150	10/25	10/26 E	2,145	789	47
CO	9	10/25	10/23 C	636	0	123	10/23	10/18 L	868	111	130
OR	7	10/15	10/18 J	225	0	0	8/13	10/13 E	346	0	0
NV	5	10/14	10/14 L	434	0	31	10/22	10/14 T	472	307	56
ME	4	9/23	9/29 J	210	0	0		10/23 L	324	203	0
Tier III: No/little advertising, conceded or likely Bush/Kerry states										11	States
NJ	15	10/18	10/18 L	0	0	0	6/14	10/7 E	0	0	0
WA	11		7/30 C	37	0	0	8/28	10/8 A	176	0	0
NC	15	9/17		0	0	0	9/7	10/6 E	0	0	0
VA	13	8/9		0	0	0	7/27		0	0	0
MO	11	10/9	10/21 E	0	0	86	10/8	10/11 E	0	0	0
TN	11	8/31		0	0	0	9/1		0	0	0
AZ	10	10/13		0	0	0	10/13		0	0	0
LA	9		7/1 C	0	0	0	9/9		0	0	0
AR	6		8/3 C	0	0	0	5/13		0	0	0
WV	5	9/10	10/18 C	377	0	0	9/6	9/29 E	294	252	8
HI	4			0	0	0			0	0	0
				Solid			Likely			Swing
				No	EV		No	EV		No	EV
Bush States				17	133		8	80		2	14
Kerry States				10	153		3	26		3	32
Toss-up States										8	100
Notes:		1. State colors: red = Bush leading in polls, blue = Kerry leading, black = tied
		2. Visit = last vist to state (red=last 4 days, blue = last 8 days, green = future events)
		3. Number of ads shown during the week (red=more, blue=less, black=same). Ads exclude nationwide cable buys.
		4. Visits (L=Laura, C=Cheney, J=Jenna/Barbara, E=Edwards, T= Teresa, L=Liz Edwards A=Andrew Heinz)
		(B=Barbara Bush, E=Liz Cheney, D=Liz Dole, C=Chris Heinz)
		5. WV ads are aimed at PA, OH voters per Matthew Dowd
		6. RNC (e.g., Kerry is a liberal) ads not yet to be run
Source: ABC News, RealClearPolitics, CNN/TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG (ads: 10/14-10/20)

 

[Cableguy]

Ad Buys: Both Kerry and Dem 527s have increased their ad buys. Kerry has increased his ad buys in MI, MN, WI, CO and OR. DNC and Dem 527s have increased ad buys in FL and NH. Bush has increased ad buys in WI, IA, NH and CO. But overall Bush ad buys are down. I don't know why RNC hasn't aired its ads yet. Republican 527s are now increasing their ad buys

Visits: Bush is targeting blue states while Kerry is playing defense next week. Both are targeting OH, PA and FL.

[Cableguy]

ping

[Galtoid]

Gonna wait until it makes a clear impression right before the polls open on November 2.
Don't question Rove; DO question RNC.
Bet there are some disagreements between the two as we speak.

[My Favorite Headache]

Don't forget the massive buy that Kerry did a few weeks ago on the net. In the last 5 days it will be Kerry everywhere on the net.

[nj26]

there are different strategies here.. Bush campaign has bought a lot of national cable advertising, whereas Kerry campaign has done almost exclusively local advertising in swing states...

perhaps this contributes to national polls that favor Bush, and swing state polls that are more even

[watsonfellow]

Ed Gilespie the RNC head is basically an assistant to Rove at this point....believe me there is no disagreement, whatever Rove wants, Rove gets.

[Owen]

Kerry is almost out of money. He had to stretch an extra month for his federal 75 million. That money is coming from his GOTV effort.

His 527s will try to fill that gap, but they aren't as experienced as the GOP GOTV effort will be. It is an edge for us that Kerry has to spend his GOTV money on ads.

[Question Liberal Authority]

Every Bush ad I've seen lately says "Kerry and the Liberals in Congress". As I understand it, this allows the RNC to buy the ad, even though it counts as a Bush ad.

I think you have to look at Bush+RNC vs Kerry+DNC for the true snapshot.

That's my understanding at least, but Campaign Finance Laws are so bizarre they make NBA Salary Cap rules seem straightforward by comparison.

[hobson]

Perhaps they didn't have access to the numbers?

[Question Liberal Authority]

In the last 5 days it will be Kerry everywhere on the net.

It'll be the biggest thing since Howard Dean.

[Merry]

I am a political junky and I am getting to the point where I can't stand watching tv anymore. I turn it off immediatedly when a DNC shill gets up and starts screaming over everyone the DNC talking points. I can't stand to listen to the DNC ads and turn off the TV. The people who actually live in battleground states must be abandoning their tvs in droves.

[ExtremeUnction]

In the last 5 days it will be Kerry everywhere on the net.

Net voters have ALL made up their minds. Advertising on the Net is a waste of money. Both sides are here because we are very partisan and knowledgeable. I hope Rove is aware of that.

[Josh in PA]

I've never seen an ad that said, "This ad was paid for by the Republican National Committee".


ARe they holding back for the final week/weekend?


I hear Kerry radio ads here in central PA, but I've never heard a single Bush radio ad.. and I see far more Kerry/DNC ads on TV than Bush ads..


Based on what I've seen, I think that Bush/RNC has ALOT of money in the bank yet, while Kerry is getting thin.

[Cableguy]

What you have said is true. But if you add up Bush/RNC vs. Kerry/DNC, you have a big deficit. Obviously, this excludes nationwide cable buys as I noted in my post.

[BenLurkin]

[The Old Hoosier]

I wonder whether RNC isn't thinking everyone's made up their minds already, so time to put everything in to GOTV?

[Cableguy]

everyone has access to the same data

[Cableguy]

cable only gets you so far. you need to do both to reach saturation.

[The Old Hoosier]

The DEM 527's have hurt us big time.

In terms of ads? Certainly not. They've only embarrassed themselves and the candidates they've supported.