Posted on 10/24/2004 6:09:05 AM PDT by ride the whirlwind
Forget Florida. And Ohio. And Pennsylvania. The next President of the United States may well be elected in Michigan. In 2000, Al Gore carried the Wolverine State by more than 200,000 votes. This year's conventional wisdom has conceded it to John Kerry. Two weeks ago, Democratic operatives began telling reporters that Michigan was in the bag.
They were wrong. Last Thursday, a poll in the Detroit News put President Bush ahead in Michigan by 4 points. A Knight-Ridder survey showed the race is a virtual tie.
This came as a shock to the Kerry camp, which has concentrated its efforts on other Big Ten industrial states. Kerry could win both Ohio and Pennsylvania and still lose the election. If he loses Michigan.
There are signs that Democrats are belatedly figuring this out. Last Sunday, Al Sharpton was dispatched to Detroit on an urgent mission to the city's churches. Sharpton is popular in Detroit, but Kerry isn't. He reminds black voters of another cold, aloof Massachusetts presidential candidate, Michael Dukakis.
In 1988, Detroit Mayor Coleman Young correctly read his city's mood and didn't bother cranking up his machine for Dukakis. Without a heavy turnout in Motown, no Democrat will win Michigan, and Dukakis didn't. He lost the state 54%-46%, to George H.W. Bush.
The now-defunct Young organization rested largely on Detroit's powerful political preachers, and they remain the city's real Democratic precinct captains. The unions can provide buses to the polls, but they won't be full unless the ministers tell people to get on board.
And a lot of them won't. Michigan has a same-sex marriage ban on the ballot, and many of Detroit's influential black clergymen support it. Very few will urge their congregations to vote Republican. But more than a few have already communicated a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate.
Not much unites Detroit and its white neighbors, but this issue does. According to recent surveys, two-thirds of Michigan voters favor the ban on homosexual marriage. This includes the blue-collar ethnics of Macomb County, birthplace of the Reagan Democrat phenomenon.
Reagan Democrats are socially conservative, and many are Polish-American Catholics. Bush remembered them when he wrangled a meeting with the Pope. Kerry forgot them in the first presidential debate when he failed to mention Poland as a member of the coalition in Iraq.
Polish President Aleksander Kwasnieski publicly blasted this omission as an intentional and "immoral" slight, and Polish-Americans, probably Michigan's largest white ethnic group, heard him loud and clear. Dissing Poland is not smart politics in Michigan.
Kerry does have the official support of one group. The Arab-American Political Action Committee, located in Dearborn, has endorsed him. How much this will help the Democrats is an open question. Michigan's large Arab-American community runs the gamut from pro-Hezbollah radicals to conservative Christian Lebanese and includes many Chaldeans - Iraqi Christians - who are very grateful to Bush for bringing down Saddam Hussein.
Official Arab support may also hurt Kerry with one of the Democrats' most reliable constituencies. A lot of Jews in the Detroit suburbs are uncomfortable about sharing a candidate with vocal enemies of Israel.
Tomorrow, Kerry, who hasn't been to Michigan in weeks, will try to stop the bleeding with an appearance at Macomb County Community College. That's not far from the scene of Michael Dukakis' fateful ride in the turret of a tank, a mistake that helped cost him the 1988 election. Michigan today is what it was 16 years ago, a dangerous political battlefield for Massachusetts liberals - with or without helmets.
It would be a hoot if Kerry won Ohio and thought he was in the bag, but about an hour later, Michigan gets called for W and W wins.
If you don't count Ann Arbor, Flint and Detroit, most of the rest of Michigan is sane.
-Eric
This thing is going to be over when the early returns show Dubya has won in New Jersey. It will be the first indicator of a massive landslide, and NJ will at last have the chance to boost the 'Pubbie over the top!
I never miss an opportunity to remind Detroiters of Caucus night and Al Sharptons promise to get to the bottom of it.
http://www.sharpton2004.org/index.php?menuID=PressStory&id=49
Not really in Ohio either...
Andrew Sullivan said much the same thing on the Sunday Chris Matthews Show.
Thanks for the link. Nothin' like a little well placed disenfranchisement, I always say.
This the gay "marriage" issue. Something like 57% are for the ban. If 57% "say" they are for it, it is more likely that 62% are for it. People don't like to say they are taking an "un PC" position to pollsters. If enough people make the connection between Kerry and gay "marriage" we will win Michigan as the newspaper poll shows.
Pray and work. Don't give up.
Bush will win this election.
How close it will be is another matter.
The radical left wing nut jobs have been out in force to cheat and steal this election.
The traditional core constituencies of the D's have largely been pushed aside by the radicals, and they know it.
The radicals will try hard, but only have moderate success...they're newbies and nutjobs. If the traditional core (blacks, Jews, Unions) pull hard for Kerry, they will make it close. If they don't, it will be a decisive win for Bush.
I think the most important thing about this election is not the election itself, but the potential for long term realignments. Jews and blacks in particular may realize for the first time that their interests truly lie with the R party much more than the D party. There also may be a big split between the government unions (who are all for growth crushing taxes and don't care a whit about the economy) and the private sector unions (whose jobs can in fact go away).
Indeed, if the left manages to steal this election, it might be the worst thing they could do to themselves. With a Bush win and then she who shall not be named pretending to be a moderate in '08, these traditional D constituencies may 'fall back into line' If they cheat their way into a Kerry administration, they will see up close and personal what a disaster the radical left is, and those realignments may be permanent.
She is a 72 Hour (Twelve Days) Task Force Marshall.
If I were in Detroit I would print several thousand copies and carpet the streets to remind the locals of their disenfrancisement and Als forgotten promise.
" If the traditional core (blacks, Jews, Unions) pull hard for Kerry, they will make it close. If they don't, it will be a decisive win for Bush."
Blacks jews and unions are where John Kerry is running into trouble. Blacks don't believe a word he says. Jews have been insulted by him. Union members don't always vote the way thier told. Every union member I know says "hell no" to John Kerry.
Im hoping , but I am afraid there are too many dumb ass union type people in Michigan.
"This thing is going to be over when the early returns show Dubya has won in New Jersey."
That's one of the races I'm watching. Your analysis is correct.
You make a point I have been considering for weeks, since that first study showing significant inroads into the black vote by Bush. If the black voting monolith becomes sane and splits a bit more towards even, a major precedent is set. They will have much more power, in both parties.
But I think you may be wrong on Hillary. If Bush wins, the wing of the DNC that says "we must have a moderate and Hillary is it" will face resistance from others who will say "we've been out of power 8 years and it's because of nominating Northeasterners and sacrificing EVs". And the left wing extremists will point out that their man, Dean, was stabbed in the back by the DNC and had they run as true liberals and not been ashamed of it, they could have beaten Bush.
Hillary will, of course, put her finger in the wind and decide which of those factions will carry the day and pretend to be whichever of them does. So don't presume she will run as a moderate. She may wind up mouthing extreme liberal commentary.
Read the post above yours......people may just not be indicating out loud their true intentions.
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