Dude, this is posted already. Didn't you get my ping?
Here's the update of the 15 day and 6 day moving averages for you to graph. Over the next two days, Bush will move through two of his three remaining weak days under 48.0%. He had five such days 9/24-28, three such days 10/5-7, two 10/12-13, and one on 10/18. This accounts for the nice upward trend in his 15 day number.
Date | Bush | Kerry | Bush | Kerry |
2-Jun | 44.80 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 44.00 |
3-Jun | 44.60 | 44.80 | 44.50 | 44.00 |
4-Jun | 45.00 | 44.80 | 45.00 | 44.50 |
5-Jun | 44.80 | 45.00 | 44.50 | 45.00 |
6-Jun | 44.80 | 44.80 | 45.00 | 44.50 |
7-Jun | 45.00 | 44.80 | 44.50 | 45.00 |
8-Jun | 44.80 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 |
9-Jun | 44.80 | 44.80 | 45.00 | 45.50 |
10-Jun | 45.00 | 44.80 | 45.00 | 45.00 |
11-Jun | 45.40 | 44.40 | 46.00 | 44.50 |
12-Jun | 45.20 | 44.60 | 45.50 | 45.00 |
13-Jun | 45.40 | 44.80 | 46.00 | 45.00 |
14-Jun | 45.40 | 45.20 | 46.50 | 45.50 |
15-Jun | 45.40 | 45.00 | 46.50 | 45.00 |
16-Jun | 45.40 | 45.00 | 46.50 | 45.00 |
17-Jun | 45.80 | 45.20 | 46.00 | 46.00 |
18-Jun | 45.80 | 45.20 | 46.00 | 45.50 |
19-Jun | 45.60 | 45.20 | 45.50 | 45.50 |
20-Jun | 46.00 | 45.40 | 46.00 | 45.50 |
21-Jun | 45.40 | 45.60 | 45.00 | 46.00 |
22-Jun | 45.40 | 45.60 | 44.50 | 46.50 |
23-Jun | 45.80 | 45.80 | 45.00 | 46.50 |
24-Jun | 46.00 | 45.40 | 45.50 | 46.00 |
25-Jun | 45.60 | 45.60 | 45.00 | 46.00 |
26-Jun | 45.60 | 46.20 | 45.00 | 46.50 |
27-Jun | 45.80 | 45.80 | 46.50 | 45.50 |
28-Jun | 45.20 | 45.60 | 45.50 | 45.00 |
29-Jun | 45.40 | 45.80 | 45.50 | 45.50 |
30-Jun | 45.60 | 45.80 | 45.50 | 46.00 |
1-Jul | 45.00 | 45.80 | 45.00 | 45.50 |
2-Jul | 45.40 | 46.00 | 45.50 | 45.50 |
6-Jul | 45.80 | 46.00 | 46.00 | 46.00 |
7-Jul | 45.40 | 45.60 | 46.00 | 45.50 |
8-Jul | 45.40 | 46.00 | 46.00 | 46.00 |
9-Jul | 46.20 | 46.00 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
10-Jul | 45.60 | 46.00 | 46.00 | 47.00 |
11-Jul | 45.60 | 46.20 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
12-Jul | 45.60 | 46.60 | 45.00 | 47.50 |
13-Jul | 45.40 | 46.60 | 45.00 | 48.50 |
14-Jul | 45.40 | 46.60 | 45.00 | 48.00 |
15-Jul | 45.40 | 47.00 | 44.50 | 48.00 |
16-Jul | 45.60 | 47.20 | 45.50 | 48.00 |
17-Jul | 45.60 | 47.00 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
18-Jul | 45.60 | 47.00 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
19-Jul | 46.00 | 47.00 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
20-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 46.50 | 46.00 |
21-Jul | 45.60 | 47.00 | 46.50 | 46.00 |
22-Jul | 45.60 | 47.60 | 46.00 | 46.50 |
23-Jul | 45.60 | 47.20 | 46.00 | 46.50 |
24-Jul | 45.40 | 47.00 | 46.00 | 46.50 |
25-Jul | 45.80 | 47.20 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
26-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
27-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
28-Jul | 45.80 | 47.20 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
29-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
30-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
31-Jul | 45.80 | 47.00 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
1-Aug | 45.60 | 47.20 | 45.00 | 48.50 |
2-Aug | 45.80 | 47.00 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
3-Aug | 45.40 | 47.60 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
4-Aug | 45.40 | 47.40 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
5-Aug | 45.40 | 47.40 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
6-Aug | 45.60 | 47.60 | 45.50 | 48.00 |
7-Aug | 45.80 | 47.20 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
8-Aug | 46.00 | 47.40 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
9-Aug | 46.00 | 47.60 | 47.00 | 47.50 |
10-Aug | 45.80 | 47.80 | 46.50 | 48.00 |
11-Aug | 46.00 | 47.80 | 47.00 | 48.00 |
12-Aug | 46.00 | 47.60 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
13-Aug | 46.00 | 47.80 | 46.00 | 48.50 |
14-Aug | 46.20 | 47.60 | 46.00 | 48.00 |
15-Aug | 46.00 | 47.80 | 45.50 | 48.00 |
16-Aug | 46.40 | 47.60 | 46.50 | 48.00 |
17-Aug | 46.20 | 48.00 | 46.00 | 48.00 |
18-Aug | 46.20 | 47.80 | 46.00 | 48.00 |
19-Aug | 46.40 | 48.00 | 46.50 | 48.00 |
20-Aug | 46.60 | 48.00 | 46.50 | 48.50 |
21-Aug | 46.40 | 47.60 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
22-Aug | 46.40 | 48.00 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
23-Aug | 46.20 | 48.00 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
24-Aug | 46.20 | 47.60 | 47.00 | 47.00 |
25-Aug | 46.60 | 47.60 | 47.00 | 47.00 |
26-Aug | 46.40 | 47.40 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
27-Aug | 46.40 | 47.20 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
28-Aug | 46.80 | 47.20 | 47.00 | 46.50 |
29-Aug | 46.80 | 47.00 | 47.50 | 45.50 |
30-Aug | 46.60 | 46.80 | 46.50 | 46.00 |
31-Aug | 46.80 | 46.80 | 47.00 | 46.00 |
1-Sep | 47.00 | 46.60 | 47.50 | 46.00 |
2-Sep | 47.20 | 46.20 | 48.00 | 45.50 |
3-Sep | 47.40 | 46.20 | 48.00 | 45.50 |
4-Sep | 47.42 | 45.94 | 48.05 | 45.85 |
5-Sep | 47.32 | 46.08 | 48.30 | 45.70 |
6-Sep | 47.52 | 46.10 | 48.30 | 45.75 |
7-Sep | 47.68 | 46.00 | 48.20 | 46.00 |
8-Sep | 47.56 | 45.98 | 47.90 | 46.45 |
9-Sep | 47.62 | 46.06 | 47.55 | 46.65 |
10-Sep | 47.84 | 46.04 | 47.55 | 46.75 |
11-Sep | 47.86 | 46.00 | 47.85 | 46.30 |
12-Sep | 47.88 | 45.90 | 47.90 | 46.00 |
13-Sep | 47.76 | 46.32 | 47.70 | 46.30 |
14-Sep | 47.88 | 46.10 | 47.30 | 46.30 |
15-Sep | 47.94 | 45.98 | 47.80 | 45.80 |
16-Sep | 48.22 | 45.86 | 48.45 | 45.55 |
17-Sep | 47.92 | 46.14 | 48.15 | 45.85 |
18-Sep | 48.02 | 45.94 | 48.35 | 45.60 |
19-Sep | 47.96 | 46.14 | 48.55 | 45.40 |
20-Sep | 48.02 | 45.92 | 48.65 | 45.25 |
21-Sep | 48.16 | 45.74 | 48.85 | 45.15 |
22-Sep | 48.26 | 45.64 | 48.30 | 45.45 |
23-Sep | 48.18 | 45.70 | 48.55 | 45.35 |
24-Sep | 48.14 | 45.68 | 47.85 | 46.00 |
25-Sep | 48.28 | 45.66 | 48.35 | 45.55 |
26-Sep | 48.12 | 45.78 | 48.10 | 45.95 |
27-Sep | 48.04 | 45.86 | 47.60 | 46.30 |
28-Sep | 48.34 | 45.64 | 47.90 | 46.30 |
29-Sep | 48.52 | 45.54 | 48.15 | 45.90 |
30-Sep | 48.28 | 45.80 | 48.15 | 46.10 |
1-Oct | 48.22 | 45.76 | 48.30 | 45.80 |
2-Oct | 48.40 | 45.62 | 48.85 | 45.45 |
3-Oct | 48.20 | 45.92 | 48.75 | 45.75 |
4-Oct | 48.38 | 45.76 | 48.65 | 45.70 |
5-Oct | 48.36 | 45.96 | 48.25 | 46.30 |
6-Oct | 47.98 | 46.20 | 48.10 | 46.15 |
7-Oct | 48.18 | 46.14 | 48.20 | 46.40 |
8-Oct | 48.24 | 46.10 | 48.15 | 46.55 |
9-Oct | 48.42 | 46.08 | 48.40 | 46.40 |
10-Oct | 48.50 | 45.98 | 48.65 | 46.10 |
11-Oct | 48.60 | 45.88 | 48.70 | 45.75 |
12-Oct | 48.34 | 46.02 | 48.50 | 45.85 |
13-Oct | 48.44 | 45.96 | 48.55 | 45.85 |
14-Oct | 48.48 | 46.00 | 48.75 | 45.65 |
15-Oct | 48.44 | 45.90 | 48.20 | 45.65 |
16-Oct | 48.36 | 46.14 | 47.95 | 46.20 |
17-Oct | 48.46 | 46.16 | 48.5 | 46.15 |
18-Oct | 48.14 | 46.28 | 48.25 | 46.4 |
19-Oct | 48.28 | 46.24 | 48.25 | 46.4 |
20-Oct | 48.54 | 46.14 | 48.4 | 46.65 |
21-Oct | 48.46 | 46.14 | 48.15 | 46.75 |
22-Oct | 48.54 | 46.08 | 48.65 | 46.25 |
23-Oct | 48.46 | 46.26 | 48.15 | 46.8 |
What is it about Friday? Kerry ALWAYS seems to have has his best day of the week on FRIDAY
Why this obsession with each day's new poll results? If we really want to know how rapidly the country is swinging from one candidate to the other, we should, at a minimum, be polling hourly. Better still would be constant 24 hour a day polling with instantaneous compilation and reporting of results over the internet.
To be more specific that's Bush 48.0 Kerry 46.7
The Ras poll picks up Saturday and Sunday in its 3 day rolling average next week, don't be surprised to see Kerry take the lead, at least, for a few days.
The raw data for Rasmussen would show this
Wednesday night
Bush 44.9 Kerry 46.6
Thursday night
Bush 51.9 Kerry 44.2
Friday Night
Bush 47.2 Kerry 49.3
3 day rolling average
Bush 48.0 Kerry 46.7
I've been on the road the last couple days. It looks like Rasmussen is keeping his predictable trends going.