Here's the update of the 15 day and 6 day moving averages for you to graph. Over the next two days, Bush will move through two of his three remaining weak days under 48.0%. He had five such days 9/24-28, three such days 10/5-7, two 10/12-13, and one on 10/18. This accounts for the nice upward trend in his 15 day number.
Date | Bush | Kerry | Bush | Kerry |
2-Jun | 44.80 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 44.00 |
3-Jun | 44.60 | 44.80 | 44.50 | 44.00 |
4-Jun | 45.00 | 44.80 | 45.00 | 44.50 |
5-Jun | 44.80 | 45.00 | 44.50 | 45.00 |
6-Jun | 44.80 | 44.80 | 45.00 | 44.50 |
7-Jun | 45.00 | 44.80 | 44.50 | 45.00 |
8-Jun | 44.80 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 |
9-Jun | 44.80 | 44.80 | 45.00 | 45.50 |
10-Jun | 45.00 | 44.80 | 45.00 | 45.00 |
11-Jun | 45.40 | 44.40 | 46.00 | 44.50 |
12-Jun | 45.20 | 44.60 | 45.50 | 45.00 |
13-Jun | 45.40 | 44.80 | 46.00 | 45.00 |
14-Jun | 45.40 | 45.20 | 46.50 | 45.50 |
15-Jun | 45.40 | 45.00 | 46.50 | 45.00 |
16-Jun | 45.40 | 45.00 | 46.50 | 45.00 |
17-Jun | 45.80 | 45.20 | 46.00 | 46.00 |
18-Jun | 45.80 | 45.20 | 46.00 | 45.50 |
19-Jun | 45.60 | 45.20 | 45.50 | 45.50 |
20-Jun | 46.00 | 45.40 | 46.00 | 45.50 |
21-Jun | 45.40 | 45.60 | 45.00 | 46.00 |
22-Jun | 45.40 | 45.60 | 44.50 | 46.50 |
23-Jun | 45.80 | 45.80 | 45.00 | 46.50 |
24-Jun | 46.00 | 45.40 | 45.50 | 46.00 |
25-Jun | 45.60 | 45.60 | 45.00 | 46.00 |
26-Jun | 45.60 | 46.20 | 45.00 | 46.50 |
27-Jun | 45.80 | 45.80 | 46.50 | 45.50 |
28-Jun | 45.20 | 45.60 | 45.50 | 45.00 |
29-Jun | 45.40 | 45.80 | 45.50 | 45.50 |
30-Jun | 45.60 | 45.80 | 45.50 | 46.00 |
1-Jul | 45.00 | 45.80 | 45.00 | 45.50 |
2-Jul | 45.40 | 46.00 | 45.50 | 45.50 |
6-Jul | 45.80 | 46.00 | 46.00 | 46.00 |
7-Jul | 45.40 | 45.60 | 46.00 | 45.50 |
8-Jul | 45.40 | 46.00 | 46.00 | 46.00 |
9-Jul | 46.20 | 46.00 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
10-Jul | 45.60 | 46.00 | 46.00 | 47.00 |
11-Jul | 45.60 | 46.20 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
12-Jul | 45.60 | 46.60 | 45.00 | 47.50 |
13-Jul | 45.40 | 46.60 | 45.00 | 48.50 |
14-Jul | 45.40 | 46.60 | 45.00 | 48.00 |
15-Jul | 45.40 | 47.00 | 44.50 | 48.00 |
16-Jul | 45.60 | 47.20 | 45.50 | 48.00 |
17-Jul | 45.60 | 47.00 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
18-Jul | 45.60 | 47.00 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
19-Jul | 46.00 | 47.00 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
20-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 46.50 | 46.00 |
21-Jul | 45.60 | 47.00 | 46.50 | 46.00 |
22-Jul | 45.60 | 47.60 | 46.00 | 46.50 |
23-Jul | 45.60 | 47.20 | 46.00 | 46.50 |
24-Jul | 45.40 | 47.00 | 46.00 | 46.50 |
25-Jul | 45.80 | 47.20 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
26-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
27-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
28-Jul | 45.80 | 47.20 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
29-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 45.50 | 47.00 |
30-Jul | 45.80 | 46.80 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
31-Jul | 45.80 | 47.00 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
1-Aug | 45.60 | 47.20 | 45.00 | 48.50 |
2-Aug | 45.80 | 47.00 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
3-Aug | 45.40 | 47.60 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
4-Aug | 45.40 | 47.40 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
5-Aug | 45.40 | 47.40 | 45.50 | 47.50 |
6-Aug | 45.60 | 47.60 | 45.50 | 48.00 |
7-Aug | 45.80 | 47.20 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
8-Aug | 46.00 | 47.40 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
9-Aug | 46.00 | 47.60 | 47.00 | 47.50 |
10-Aug | 45.80 | 47.80 | 46.50 | 48.00 |
11-Aug | 46.00 | 47.80 | 47.00 | 48.00 |
12-Aug | 46.00 | 47.60 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
13-Aug | 46.00 | 47.80 | 46.00 | 48.50 |
14-Aug | 46.20 | 47.60 | 46.00 | 48.00 |
15-Aug | 46.00 | 47.80 | 45.50 | 48.00 |
16-Aug | 46.40 | 47.60 | 46.50 | 48.00 |
17-Aug | 46.20 | 48.00 | 46.00 | 48.00 |
18-Aug | 46.20 | 47.80 | 46.00 | 48.00 |
19-Aug | 46.40 | 48.00 | 46.50 | 48.00 |
20-Aug | 46.60 | 48.00 | 46.50 | 48.50 |
21-Aug | 46.40 | 47.60 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
22-Aug | 46.40 | 48.00 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
23-Aug | 46.20 | 48.00 | 46.50 | 47.50 |
24-Aug | 46.20 | 47.60 | 47.00 | 47.00 |
25-Aug | 46.60 | 47.60 | 47.00 | 47.00 |
26-Aug | 46.40 | 47.40 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
27-Aug | 46.40 | 47.20 | 46.50 | 46.50 |
28-Aug | 46.80 | 47.20 | 47.00 | 46.50 |
29-Aug | 46.80 | 47.00 | 47.50 | 45.50 |
30-Aug | 46.60 | 46.80 | 46.50 | 46.00 |
31-Aug | 46.80 | 46.80 | 47.00 | 46.00 |
1-Sep | 47.00 | 46.60 | 47.50 | 46.00 |
2-Sep | 47.20 | 46.20 | 48.00 | 45.50 |
3-Sep | 47.40 | 46.20 | 48.00 | 45.50 |
4-Sep | 47.42 | 45.94 | 48.05 | 45.85 |
5-Sep | 47.32 | 46.08 | 48.30 | 45.70 |
6-Sep | 47.52 | 46.10 | 48.30 | 45.75 |
7-Sep | 47.68 | 46.00 | 48.20 | 46.00 |
8-Sep | 47.56 | 45.98 | 47.90 | 46.45 |
9-Sep | 47.62 | 46.06 | 47.55 | 46.65 |
10-Sep | 47.84 | 46.04 | 47.55 | 46.75 |
11-Sep | 47.86 | 46.00 | 47.85 | 46.30 |
12-Sep | 47.88 | 45.90 | 47.90 | 46.00 |
13-Sep | 47.76 | 46.32 | 47.70 | 46.30 |
14-Sep | 47.88 | 46.10 | 47.30 | 46.30 |
15-Sep | 47.94 | 45.98 | 47.80 | 45.80 |
16-Sep | 48.22 | 45.86 | 48.45 | 45.55 |
17-Sep | 47.92 | 46.14 | 48.15 | 45.85 |
18-Sep | 48.02 | 45.94 | 48.35 | 45.60 |
19-Sep | 47.96 | 46.14 | 48.55 | 45.40 |
20-Sep | 48.02 | 45.92 | 48.65 | 45.25 |
21-Sep | 48.16 | 45.74 | 48.85 | 45.15 |
22-Sep | 48.26 | 45.64 | 48.30 | 45.45 |
23-Sep | 48.18 | 45.70 | 48.55 | 45.35 |
24-Sep | 48.14 | 45.68 | 47.85 | 46.00 |
25-Sep | 48.28 | 45.66 | 48.35 | 45.55 |
26-Sep | 48.12 | 45.78 | 48.10 | 45.95 |
27-Sep | 48.04 | 45.86 | 47.60 | 46.30 |
28-Sep | 48.34 | 45.64 | 47.90 | 46.30 |
29-Sep | 48.52 | 45.54 | 48.15 | 45.90 |
30-Sep | 48.28 | 45.80 | 48.15 | 46.10 |
1-Oct | 48.22 | 45.76 | 48.30 | 45.80 |
2-Oct | 48.40 | 45.62 | 48.85 | 45.45 |
3-Oct | 48.20 | 45.92 | 48.75 | 45.75 |
4-Oct | 48.38 | 45.76 | 48.65 | 45.70 |
5-Oct | 48.36 | 45.96 | 48.25 | 46.30 |
6-Oct | 47.98 | 46.20 | 48.10 | 46.15 |
7-Oct | 48.18 | 46.14 | 48.20 | 46.40 |
8-Oct | 48.24 | 46.10 | 48.15 | 46.55 |
9-Oct | 48.42 | 46.08 | 48.40 | 46.40 |
10-Oct | 48.50 | 45.98 | 48.65 | 46.10 |
11-Oct | 48.60 | 45.88 | 48.70 | 45.75 |
12-Oct | 48.34 | 46.02 | 48.50 | 45.85 |
13-Oct | 48.44 | 45.96 | 48.55 | 45.85 |
14-Oct | 48.48 | 46.00 | 48.75 | 45.65 |
15-Oct | 48.44 | 45.90 | 48.20 | 45.65 |
16-Oct | 48.36 | 46.14 | 47.95 | 46.20 |
17-Oct | 48.46 | 46.16 | 48.5 | 46.15 |
18-Oct | 48.14 | 46.28 | 48.25 | 46.4 |
19-Oct | 48.28 | 46.24 | 48.25 | 46.4 |
20-Oct | 48.54 | 46.14 | 48.4 | 46.65 |
21-Oct | 48.46 | 46.14 | 48.15 | 46.75 |
22-Oct | 48.54 | 46.08 | 48.65 | 46.25 |
23-Oct | 48.46 | 46.26 | 48.15 | 46.8 |
Looks pretty unremarkable to me. What should I be seeing?