Posted on 10/23/2004 7:04:15 AM PDT by zwerni
ok - i just saw this hyped up expose' on a local news channel about how these polls are totally inaccurate because of the cell phone. they are claiming that kids between the ages of 18 and 30 use their cell phones exclusively and therefore cannot be polled by the traditional pollsters. And they drew a conclusion (as preposterous as this is) that the polls should be shifted by as much as 10 (yes that's ten) points in kerry's favor.
I have heard many comments about the cell phones not showing up in polling data but never heard this much of an impact. definitely seems like desparation (or a way to cover the huge voter fraud).
In prior elections I have been polled by all the majors on Pres. senate etc in NYState as well as various other polls. This year I have changed my number to an online phone number and have received ZERO calls.
I heard it too, but didn't post a vanity about it in the "News/Activism" forum.
I would say that probably 90% of this 18-30 cell phone group reside in the Big Blue states that are going Kerry
wether you like it or not. They are also the crowd that
those leftist rockers are begging to go to the polls.
In that czse, let's quit doing these polls.
czse = case. I must have some Russian in my bloodline.
Other people that don't get polled are those without phones, those who screen calls with answering machines, and those of us who hang up on pollsters. And I know a guy who gets called, and always answers the opposite of what he believes.
I am a 41 year old republican that uses my cell phone exclusively. They better factor me in too as a Bush vote!
Only 3% of households use cell phones exclusively, so it is impossible for this to affect any poll by more than 3 points, which is less than the margin of error in most, if not all, polls. So this is already taken into account.
Most use cell phones secondarily. Otherthan teenagers there are very few, percentage-wise, who are using their cell phone as their phone at their primary residence. People at work have never been part of polling. IMHO much ado about nothing.
I have 3 landlines and 2 cell phones and the only political poll call I have had in the last 8 yrs., was 1 from Republican state Senate race. Personally I think the polls reflect a 10% min. bias against the R's.
I got polled the other day on my home phone. Told the pollster, yes I knew who I was going to vote for. When he asked me who I told him it was none of his damn business and hung up. Felt great!!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1226979/posts
READ this...Bush/Kerry tied among young voters!
I know my two sons, ages 21 and 19 are voting for W. They tell me most of their friends are voting for W. as well.
I have worried about this all along.
"Only 3% of households use cell phones exclusively...."
I would guess that it is nearly impossible to say with any accuracy how many people use cell phones exclusively. A lot of people I know have land lines that they NEVER answer. They use cell phones exclusively, and the land line is just a back up and a public "presence" or identity in the phone book. See my post # 27. A basic land line is cheap. Having a land line does not mean that is one's primary connection or even a connection that will answer.
Previous posting: MSNBC report
Dead Heat
A new poll finds the two candidates neck-and-neck among young voters
Justin Sullivan / Getty Images
The tongue-in-cheek group ‘Billionaires for Bush’ march at a protest on the eve of the Republican National Convention in New York
WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Brian Braiker
Newsweek
Updated: 5:34 p.m. ET Oct. 4, 2004Sept. 24 - John Kerry’s lead among younger voters has vanished as they become increasingly inclined to see the country as headed in the right direction, according to the first GENEXT poll conducted since the Republican National Convention in late August.
If the election were held today, the two main candidates would be neck-and-neck among under-30 voters, with 45 percent of them voting for Kerry and 44 percent for President George W. Bush. Independent candidate Ralph Nader draws 6 percent of the youth vote. Last month Kerry had the support of 50 percent of young voters, Bush had 41 percent. (In the most recent NEWSWEEK poll of all registered voters, taken between Sept. 9 and 10, Bush led Kerry with 49 percent of the vote versus the challenger's 43 percent.)
The increased support for Bush is also reflected in the narrowing spread between younger voters who believe the country is headed along the right track or in the wrong direction. Last month, 54 percent of those polled felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, compared to 42 percent who saw it as being on the right track. In the new poll, nearly as many people felt it was on the right track (47 percent) as felt it was heading in the wrong direction (51 percent).
TAKE THE GENEXT POLL
The incumbent and his challenger are tied among voters under 30. Which one gets your vote? Or are you waiting for the debates to choose? Tell us what you think.
Despite the tightening race, the majority of those younger voters surveyed disapprove of the way the president is handling his job (55 percent, up from 53 percent last month). Bush’s approval ratings on foreign policy, the economy and other domestic issues have also taken a hit after showing signs of improvement last month. According to the poll—conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs and taken after a month of bad news from Iraq including recent beheadings and the death of the 1,000th U.S. soldier—41 percent of young voters approve of the president’s handling of foreign policy and the war on terrorism, down from 54 percent in August. This reflects a sharp rise in disapproval of Bush’s handling of foreign policy issues and the war on terrorism (58 percent now disapprove as opposed to 44 percent last month).
Kerry will definitely get the 19 year old female, cell phone in ear, 75 mph/plus vote.
The New York Sun had this article yesterday
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