Posted on 10/22/2004 7:37:20 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
In 2000, George W. Bush won the presidency because West Virginia, a reliably Democratic state went his way. In 2004, President Bush could secure a big win in the electoral-college by picking off Michigan, another blue state that John Kerry must win to have any chance at the presidency.
A Detroit News poll conducted October 20-21 has President Bush leading Kerry by a narrow margin of 47 percent to 43 percent. Michigan hasn't voted for a Republican for president since 1988 and for good reason. The state, home to the United Auto Workers (UAW), is a hotbed of union activism. Detroit, the major urban population center in the state, is overwhelmingly African American and turns out heavily for the Democratic ticket in presidential years. These dynamics mean that to win Michigan, Bush must roll up big margins in suburban Detroit, namely in affluent Oakland County and socially conservative, blue-collar Macomb County.
There are several issues that provide President Bush with the opportunity to do just that. Macomb County is where the term :"Reagan Democrat" originated. It is home to a large population of Polish Catholics, many of whom depend on the auto industry for their livelihoods. As an east-coast liberal, Kerry has spent much of his Senate career pandering to left-wing environmentalists who despise the cars and trucks made in Michigan. In 2002, Kerry proposed legislation to raise fuel-economy standards by 50 percent. His legislation was so draconian that the UAW and Michigan Democratic Senators Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow worked with Republicans to kill it on the Senate floor.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Unless Bush starts to show up in Michigan and run lots of ads, you know this is all just wishful thinking. Any sign of Bush in Michigan Dan?
President Bush will be at the Palace of Auburn Hills next week.
It might be a move to worry the Democrats and make them waste some money and time.
We've got conflicting rulings coming from the federal benches on this issue. The Supreme Court needs to make a ruling one way or the other to insure the law is applied uniformly across the country.
I just talked to the campaign this aftenoon and the venue has been changed, but they aren't disclosing the new location. They said he is still coming though.
Wondered about the safety issue & Auburn Hills...Dearborn being a stone's throw away & all. Glad he's still coming.
One would think that voters who vote twice would be caught unless they registered more than once, under different names. I will believe it when I see it.
Well, I can tell you the ads are running like crazy here. I can't go for more than 10 minutes on the network broadcasts without seeing a Bush or Kerry ad and usually back to back.
They are right about the Polish Catholics, I married into a Polish Catholic family and there is a very big connection back to Poland from this group. They even had the President of Poland come over last year to speak. They did not take very lightly the comments Kerry made disrespecting the Polish people and I know that my in-laws who voted for Clinton twice (I know, I know, but that was before they met me) are voting for GWB and so is rest of the family.
I got the impression that the Palace wasn't big enough and they were changing the venue to accomodate more people. I'll try to get something out of them when I go on Sunday to make signs for our "Welcome Senator Kerry" outing.
I believe Bush will be in Michighan next week
Not big enough? LOL What's next the Silverdome? The Lions aren't using it anymore.
(well, they didn't use it while there, but that's another story)
I hope Bush wins Michigan BIG TIME! I've got a friend who is volunteering for the Kerry campaign up there.
Get Ted to take him around. He knows all the fur trappers in the U.P.
That's what I was thinking as well, but the lady I spoke to said I would definitely be calling her next week for tickets and she sounded positively giddy as all get out.
The Mitchell Poll had him up three. That's significant since while it's mostly a GOP polling firm, they were the ones to call the range in 2000 - and that was one of the more unfriendly polls to Bush then.
Bush is going back to Oakland County and Saginaw this Wednesday, and Kerry's going to Warren. Bush IMO needs to go back to Macomb, take one more yooper visit, and close out with a final weekend rally over in Grand Rapids and/or Holland to bring West MI home.
NRO is right on here, although Macomb also has many Italians as well, and if I remember right, Kerry belittled them as well.
It seems to me that no one is going to be winning surprise victories in any state this election. The turnout will be larger than ever and using precious resources in a state that stands a VERY low probability of going red is an utter waste.
With many states in play, wouldn't be smarter to devote advertising money and appearances to those states? I know, this sounds a little simplistic, but why are they deviating from the game plan now? If this election turns on Nevada or Colorado going democratic, the party has no one to point fingers at. They will be to blame for changing the game plan and taking their eye off the ball.
This misguided leadership just makes me shake my head.
We've got conflicting rulings coming from the federal benches on this issue. The Supreme Court needs to make a ruling one way or the other to insure the law is applied uniformly across the country. (Sorry, I don't know how to create italics in the html!)
That would be good, but the Constitution leaves it up to the states to determine the method of voting. But, that may point out a conflict in the use of provisional ballots in the first place. Can the Federal govt. dictate their use to the states, or could a state choose to challenge that point?
It seems that in order to counter the Detroit vote, Bush's magic formula must be winning Oakland, Yooperland, and Macomb.
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