Posted on 10/22/2004 7:36:55 AM PDT by Area Freeper
With less than two weeks until the presidential election, recent polls taken in key battleground states indicate that the list of undecided states has been shortened to only six.
A composite of state polls shows Kerry with razor thin edges in New Hampshire, New Mexico, Iowa, and Ohio. Bush holds similarly slim leads in Florida and Wisconsin.
All of the other highly contested states have sizable leads for either President George W. Bush or his Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry and appear to be secure. However, a late surge by one candidate in any of these fringe battleground states could cause an adjustment in his opponent's resources to fend off the momentum as the final days of the campaign unfold.
Analysis performed by Bobby Eberle, President and CEO of GOPUSA, has indicated that secure states for Kerry yield him a base of 183 Electoral College votes from 14 states, whereas Bush's solid foundation totals 191 votes among 22 states.
Kerry has garnered substantial leads in four former battleground states. Oregon (7 electoral votes), Michigan (17), Pennsylvania (21), and Minnesota (10) show him comfortably ahead in composite poll tallies. However, President Bush has campaigned hard and long in Pennsylvania, and all indications are that this state is still too close to call. Bush lost Pennsylvania in 2000 over former Democratic Vice President Al Gore by 4.2% and trails now by 2.8%.
In a similar manner, Bush has effectively taken five states off the board. Nevada (5), Colorado (9), Missouri (11), Arkansas (6), and West Virginia (5) all have Bush with leads greater than the margin of error. Kerry continues to campaign in many of these states in hopes of chipping away at the president's leads. Bush handily carried all five states in 2000, and owns a composite lead of at least 4% in all states.
Incorporating these "leaning" states with Eberle's secure states yields an electoral advantage for Kerry of 238-227. 270 votes are needed to secure the nomination for president.
The prizes of the remaining six states are Florida and Ohio, with their 27 and 20 electoral votes, respectively. New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Iowa (7), and Wisconsin (10) will figure into the final tally, but not as prominently as Florida and Ohio. The winner of the November 2 election will need to carry one, if not both, of these states. If Bush or Kerry wins both of these states, they will more likely than not win the presidency.
"For me, the battle for the White House in 2004 comes down to Ohio," Eberle said. "No Republican has won the presidency without winning Ohio, and this year will be no different."
Both candidates have campaigned frequently in Florida and Ohio, as both campaigns see the criticality of winning these states parlaying into an overall election win. Bush won Ohio in 2000 by 3.5% over Gore, and also won Florida by 0.009% after all of the state recounts and Supreme Court reviews of the voting were finalize 36 days after the actual voting booths closed.
A little dated, as many recent polls show President Bush ahead in Mich, Minn, Oregon, and only one point down in Penn.
I strongly disagree with this article. MN, PA, OR and even MI are still in play.
Since the new redistricting after the 2000 census the state that President Bush won in 2000 has a total of 278 EV. So if President Bush wins Iowa (7 EV) and Wisconsin (10 EV) and loses Ohio (20) and New Hampshire (4) he will still have 271 EV and wins the election.
I don't understand how Bush would win Iowa and Wisconsin but lose Ohio. Ohio is much more Republican than the other two.
Then again, I'll take victory any way we can get it!
However, I still think Bush will win with > 300 electoral votes.
In Central Ohio, Stolen Honor plays tonight at 8:00 pm. Hopefully it will erase any probability of Kerry winning here.
Since the new redistricting after the 2000 census the states that President Bush won in 2000 have now a total of 278 EV. So if President Bush wins Iowa (7 EV) and Wisconsin (10 EV) and loses Ohio (20 EV) and New Hampshire (4 EV) he still get 271 EV and wins the election.
President Bush will win Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Mexico in Novemeber 2nd. He has a very good shot at Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Oregon.
"However, President Bush has campaigned hard and long in Pennsylvania, and all indications are that this state is still too close to call."
Why was PA taken out of the battleground state total with "Kerry building a solid lead" when this is the next sentence? This article is full of inconsitencies...
Cleveland area vote fraud?
Sorry this is the 5th time I'm posting this... AND DONT forget it!
They are basing John Kerry winning on the turnout of black voters in Philly last year, but REMEMBER John Street, Philly's (Black) Mayor was running......at least Rendell (Idiot) seems to think that all these Blacks will come out for kerry....IMHO there is no way in hell they are coming out to vote for Kerry, thus making Bush win PA easily....
I am afraid of that. However, the Secretary of State is onto them.
I disagree with this article quite a bit.
There are about 125 electoral votes in play at the moment.
Go here for the best rundown on the web: http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm
I think these are the list of states:
1) FL
2) OH
3) WI
4) IA
5) NH
6) NM
7) MN
8) PA
9) MI
This is close to what's on tradesports (from good to Bush to good for Kerry).
I think 1-4 are slightly Bush, 5-7 toss-ups and 8-9 slightly Kerry.
You forget, in MSM laguage as long as Kerry isn't trailing by double digits, he is "ahead or tied."
If Bush wins in PA, it will be by a razor-thin margin. The Philly burbs used to be solidly Republican. I grew up in Eastern Montgomery County. It's pretty much Democratic territory now with the City emptying to the surrounding counties.
Lower Bucks was always more of a tossup when the Steel Works in Fairless Hills were operating and providing a strong Union vote. Lower & Central Bucks County are now full of townhouses and the area is even more Democratic.
All that said, you might be right about the vote dynamic within Philly itself.
Question:
I was wondering what the percentage is they refer to when saying there is a lead of X by a candidate. Are they refering to the whole population or onlt the voting able section of the pupulation?
100/120 million voters means each percentage is = 1.2 million voters
100/280 million voters means each percentage is = 2.8 million voters
Do you know?
That's what scares my brother (XJarhead), who is a laywer in Cleveland. He'll be poll watching for eleven hours on Election Day somewhere on the East Side. Ohio does have a very strong Republican Party organization.
I disagree (with the article) that Dubya must win Ohio because no Republican has ever been elected without it. No Democrat has ever been elected without at least four Southern States, which Kerry won't get (barring a miracle). Frankly, this election has so many wild cards, I don't know how anyone can be confident of much!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.