Israel bides its time on Iran
By Harinder Mishra
JERUSALEM - While Israel is at daggers drawn with Iran, its preoccupation with its daunting domestic concerns that are tearing apart the Jewish population and the non-conducive international environment are likely to deter it from the earlier posturing of carrying out a preemptive strike to foil the Islamic Republic's nuclear ambitions.
The indications here suggest that Jerusalem instead would prefer sticking to its already-launched diplomatic initiatives that it sees as "working" and carry out a military offensive only as a last resort. While there was no dearth of rhetoric when Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom met with his French counterpart, Michel Bernier, here this week and branded Iran as the "world's No 1 state sponsor of terrorism", saying that its nuclear program was at the "top of our agenda", diplomatic and security sources have ruled out a "military option as the first line of action".
The Jewish state seems to be content with the outcome of the public relations blitz it launched this year, with Shalom raising the issue of Iran's nuclear program with every leader he met, including French, German, Irish, Polish and Russian foreign ministers, and the resulting initiatives in reaction and "softening" of Russia on the issue.
"Iran's nuclear program and its missile project is a threat not only to us but the entire world community and we have worked to draw everyone's attention to it. Everyone needs to think about it and look for possible solutions as it can hit any European city, including Berlin, London and Paris," said Foreign Ministry spokesman David Saranga, reacting to the successful testing of the Shahab 3 missile by the Islamic Republic on Wednesday.
The expected consternation after the missile test, which poses a direct threat to Israel, was completely missing this week, with domestic affairs taking the center stage and leaders locked in frantic efforts to garner support in favor or against a disengagement plan calling for the evacuation of the Gaza Strip and some isolated settlements in the West Bank.
Many here believe that the issue which has sharply divided the Jewish masses in Israel, creating a civil war-like situation, with the far right calling for soldiers to disobey orders to evacuate and threatening Prime Minister Ariel Sharon with assassination, combined with the past four years of ongoing violence, leaves no space for Jerusalem to ponder any military action against Iran in the near future, and it is in its interest to intensify diplomatic efforts instead. A preemptive attack on Tehran could also open another disconcerting front that Jerusalem can ill afford.
The initiatives launched by the leading European Union countries (notably the Big-3 of France, Germany and the United Kingdom) and the Group of Eight (G8) to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear capability has given a breather to the Jewish state, whose founders laid down the ground rule that it must maintain military superiority in the conventional as well as the non-conventional arena against any Arab or Muslim state at all costs to safeguard its survival. This principle saw Israel carrying out the much-talked-about preemptive raid on Iraq's nuclear facility in Osirak in 1981, and is at the root of its threatening note against Iran, which it sees as a hostile country that it accused of supporting radical groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon against it.
On Thursday, Iran said it had not accepted a proposal of the EU to trade nuclear technology with its uranium-enrichment program. "It is just at the initial stage. The matter has to be considered on both sides," Sirius Naseri, an Iranian official, said on Thursday. At a three-hour closed-door meeting with Germany, France and Britain at the French mission to the United Nations, Iran and the EU trio agreed to have further talks before the November 25 meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Naseri said. If the November meeting is inconclusive, the matter will be referred to the Security Council for possible sanctions against Iran.
The EU offer, which included the provision of a light-water nuclear reactor, nuclear fuels and nuclear technology, received reluctant blessings from the US, which suspected that Iran was using the talks to buy time and that EU technology would be employed in developing nuclear weapons.
The EU offer came a day after Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said his country would not yield to pressure and stop enriching uranium, which he insisted was only for power generation and was totally transparent.
The United States declaration that Iran will be the "next big issue" for any administration taking charge after the November elections and its warning to the "rogue state" to stop aiding al-Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has strengthened the belief in Israel that the unfolding of events should be closely watched while the US carries on intensifying pressure on the Islamic Republic. In any case, Israel will coordinate its moves with Washington, its closest ally, which faces a Herculean task of restoring normalcy in Iraq, on which it has been widely criticized and isolated.
"We are capable of dealing with the development on our own and have the necessary preparations for it. But for any such action we need to take into account its implications. Iran's nuclear program, as we see it, is not only our problem. The establishment feels that it concerns the global community at large and any action against it, political or military, will be more effective if a consensus can be worked out on it. However, we do not rule out the possibility of unilateral measures if threatened with the prospect," a defense source told Asia Times Online.
Uzi Rubin, head of the Defense Ministry department responsible for ballistic missile defense, however, cautioned this week at the way Israel is ignoring Iran's missile development program that it has carried out openly, unlike the nuclear program, which is shrouded in secrecy.
"We go crazy about Iranian progress in the nuclear field, and forget that the missiles Iran is developing can do us damage even with conventional capabilities," Rubin told the daily Ha'aretz. The winner of two national-security prizes for his role in developing the Ofek spy satellite and the Arrow anti-missile missile, Rubin believes that expatriate Russian experts are aiding Iran in its missile program.
The new shape of the missile's cone, the part containing the warheads, is very similar to that found in old Soviet missiles, but different from the missiles Russia has produced since the Soviet Union collapsed, he said.
Israeli experts believe that the Shihab's new shape is meant to foil the Arrow anti-missile system, Jerusalem's indigenously developed system that formed its frontline defense against possible Scud strikes by Saddam Hussein during the US offensive against him last year.
"A military option in any case will be the last resort when everything else fails to make an impact. Israel can always retaliate, having a second strike capability if attacked, but the crucial factor to be observed in the coming days is how Russia behaves in the coming days," said Tel Aviv University Professor Martin Sherman, an expert on strategic affairs.
"Diplomatic initiatives have yielded good results in the recent past and when even Europe, which has a long record of appeasement, has shown concern on the matter convincing Israel to monitor the developments instead of a hasty response," Sherman said. However, he did not completely rule out a possible military action by Israel, especially a seaborne action, if Israel is convinced that the Islamic Republic is on the verge of acquiring nuclear capability. The indications of this are non-evident at the moment, he added, with no efforts being made by the establishment to build up public opinion in favor of such a strike.
Russia, indeed, has a defining role to play in the affair as it is building a nuclear reactor for Iran, but it is faced with a strange predicament where it cannot afford to upset anyone. Iran is already crying foul at Moscow joining hands with the G8 against it, which could adversely affect Moscow's strategic ties with Tehran, accompanied by financial losses. On the other hand, if Russia sides too much with Iran, it could upset the G8, and lose precious Western and US aid. Experts feel that Russia has "moderated" its stand and is trying to balance its position, but it is bound to face some tough moments during the coming days when it will have to take certain decisive steps on the issue.
To sum up, Jerusalem is likely to keep up its diplomatic offensive against Iran and wait and watch the outcome of the initiatives of the G8, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and leading EU countries now under way. With the US deeply involved in Iraq, it is highly unlikely that Israel will get a green light from Washington for carrying out a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities in the near future, and the Sharon administration will instead focus its attentions on the domestic challenges ahead. The Jewish state also seems to believe that diplomatic initiatives have done well and succeeded in deterring the Iranian regime for the time being.
A matter of pride for IranFor a majority of Iranians, there is no doubt that the ruling clerics are after the nuclear bomb, but at the same time they are not certain that the weapon is to be used to annihilate Israel, nor do they buy the regime's "assuring" that the efforts to acquire nuclear technology are for civilian purposes only. The problem is that not only the international community, but also many Iranians do not believe the mullahs, accusing them of using and abusing the Shi'ite principle of
taqiyeh, (dissimulation, or not saying the truth in the service of some interest).
Indeed, for a majority of Iranians, Arab nations are Iran's main and potential enemies, not Israel. The same kind of sentiment is shared by a majority of Arabs, who consider Iran and Israel as if not friends, certainly not enemies.
As Hussein Moussavian, the secretary of the foreign department of Iran's Supreme Council for National Security, explained in an interview with Asia Times Online, mastering the full circle of the nuclear process, above all enriching uranium, would give Iran's stature and status both in the region and in the world a new dimension. "No country with a program of producing 7,000 megawatts of electricity out of nuclear power can afford being dependent on a foreign provider of nuclear fuel," he said, explaining why Iran is determined to master the full cycle of the nuclear energy process.
Last month, Iran said it had 37 tons of uranium and was ready to begin converting it to uranium hexafluoride gas, a substance that can then be used to enrich uranium. Enriched uranium is a key ingredient in both the nuclear fuel needed to produce electricity in power plants - and in atomic bombs.
Two Iranian officials have admitted that a "few tons" of uranium already have been converted to the gas. Because little is lost in the process, Iran would now appear to possess a sizable amount of uranium hexafluoride gas, in defiance of a demand last month by the board of governors of the IAEA that Tehran stop all enrichment-related activities. Hussein Musavian, Iran's chief delegate to the IAEA, urged calm, saying the conversion process is only for what he called "experimental" purposes.
But at the State Department in Washington, spokesman Adam Ereli said this assertion is hard to believe, especially if Iran plans to convert all the uranium it has. "Clearly, 37 tons is not a test, as Iran suggests. It's a production run," he said. "It comes as no surprise that once again Iran is defying the board [of the IAEA] and is producing uranium hexafluoride feed material. There is no peaceful use for this enriched uranium at the present time, in our view. It clearly indicates that Iran is continuing its efforts in a nuclear-weapons program," Ereli said.
A source told Asia Times Online: "Iranian nuclear scientists are of two categories: one consisting of those who are devout Muslims and believe staunchly in the system of
velayat faqih , or the rule of an absolute leader. The others are nationalist, aiming at restoring the grandeur of Iran. However, both are well paid and enjoy plenty of material and social advantages, but they are also tightly controlled by special security and psychological agents." The source added that one should not commit the mistake of comparing Iranian nuclear scientists to those of Saddam Hussein, meaning that there is almost no way to expect them to come out and provide details about Iran's nuclear programs.
Amir Jahanchahi, a Paris-based Iranian dissident, writing in the French centrist newspaper Le Figaro on September 29, said the Iranian ayatollahs want the atomic bomb to perpetuate their survival at a time that the theocracy is rejected by the majority of Iranians. "This regime cannot survive but by procreation of its model, by conquering other territories and exporting its ideology," he explained. "A nuclear arm would not be dissuasive, but offensive, one of conquest that would serve the expansion of the Iranian ruling fundamentalists' ideology, the source of modern-day terrorism."
Another reason is the presence of US forces all around Iran, in Afghanistan on the east, Iraq on the west, Turkey in the north and the Persian Gulf on the south. "Being a nuclear power would dramatically change the picture, making it more difficult for a possible attack on the Islamic Republic," observed Dr Mohammad Djalili, a professor at the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva.
Iran's nuclear program for producing electricity began under the shah in 1974, and highly informed sources have told Asia Times Online that though the monarch did not state officially his intentions on these projects, scientists formulated the works in such a way that in the event that the shah decided to produce an atomic bomb, it would be possible to develop a parallel program within a short time.
Hence Washington and Jerusalem insist that the present project in Bushehr, developed with the help of Russia and now in its final phase, is a lure for diverting the technology into military purposes. However, the US and Israel suffer from a "chronic" lack of "humint" (human intelligence) on Iran, for the simple reason that the country, immediately after the victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, cut all ties with both countries, the major sources of modern arms and intelligence-gathering in the former regime.
Iran's and Israel's military possibilities Iran's Shahab 3 missiles could reach Israel, having a range exceeding 1,500 kilometers, but their accuracy is far from certain, and so far Iran does not have a nuclear warhead capable of dealing the Jewish state a "fatal blow". Reports from Russian technicians with experience in Iran indicate that even the civilian nuclear program lacks cohesion and is marked by technical deficiencies.
Israel has the capability of hitting Iran with its air force - capable of carrying nuclear warheads - and now "bunker buster" bombs promised from the US.
A major problem is that Iran's key military sites are disseminated across the country's huge geographic space. When the country was at war with Iraq in the 1980s, most strategic sites were moved to remote areas in the mountainous Iran-Afghanistan borders far away from the reach of Iraq's air force and missiles. (In 1987 and 1988, though, the reactor sites at Bushehr, under construction by Germany and partly finished at 75%, but halted with the coming to power of the Islamic Republic in 1979, were damaged by Iraqi air strikes.)
"Hitting the Bushehr nuclear-powered electric station or other atomic sites like Natanz and Esfahan will not solve anything, as Iran's alleged installations for making the nuclear weapon are elsewhere and well guarded from enemy eyes," one Iranian source with reliable information told Asia Times Online.
Another handicap for Israel in attacking Iran is the presence of a large Jewish community, estimated at 20,000-30,000 (against some 80,000 before the Islamic Revolution), the largest in the Middle East outside Israel, officially recognized by the constitution and enjoying one representative in parliament and freedom of cult and schools. The fear is that they could become hostages in the hands of Muslim extremists in the event of a major military showdown between the two countries.
Iranian officials, both civilian and military, "assure" that if Israel were to make a military move, the response from Iran would be "devastating" for the Jewish state.
In a recent article, Hoseyn Shari'atmadari, an intelligence officer appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the editor of the hardline evening daily Keyhan, said, "Israel knows very well that if it commits the slightest mistake, it would face a catastrophe," and explained that "Israel has not yet met our martyr-seekers, an arm more destructive than any other weapon". He was referring to the mobilization and training of "thousands" of volunteers for suicide operations. Shari'atmadari is considered a mouthpiece for Khamenei.
(Additional reporting by Safa Haeri in Paris.)
There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. I began these daily threads June 10th 2003. On that date Iranians once again began taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Today in Iran, most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy.
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