Both. WI has more EV, but I think Bush will win both.
On Wisconsin!
I would actually put my money on New Mexico. Bush lost there by only a few hundred votes (closer than Florida), and there was a heavy snowstorm on Election Day in the Republican areas of the state. Iowa is probably second, then Wisconsin, then Pennsylvania, then Minnesota, then New Jersey, then Michigan.
With all due respect - please don't remind everyone that my great state got gored in the last election...
Seriously though, I'm hoping your intuition is correct and that Iowa (the land of conservatives - too many of which vote democrat) will post it votes for President Bush this time.
No promises - but we are doing our part, and things are very encouraging in these parts...
Take care
Did anyone see the guy on with Brit Hume last night? He was talking about the Democrats having registered a much larger number than was registered in 2000 in Iowa. This is significant since Algore only won by a few thousand. I hope the Republicans have been doing the same.
IA..it's seen Bush break 50% , I haven't seen Bush break 50% in WI. Kerry's going next week to rally the liberal socialists in downtown Madison. However the Farm Bureau endorsement of Bush in WI is big, they've never given one before.
Iowa is theoretically more Republican than Wisconsin. If Bush wins Wisconsin, he probably wins Iowa. If he wins Minnesota, then he wins Wisconsin AND Iowa.
If he wins Michigan or even comes close in that state, then he surely wins Ohio. If he wins New Jersey, then he wins Pennsylvania.
My nephew lives in Madison WI, a liberal stronghold. He reports that the liberals are not happy with sKerry and Ketchup Girl and Breck Girl, that there's no fire for them. He also reports that retired people are turned off by sKerry's scare tactics with respect to social security. Some have told him they view sKerry as "an empty suit" and Breck girl as "an ambulance chaser". He says the election in WI will be close, but he thinks Bush will win.
The polls seem to show Bush will win Iowa (assuming no surprises and also assuming the polls are accurate). The same appears to be true of New Mexico.
I hope Bush unleashes Rudi Guiliani on New Jersey and that he appears in Ohio separately and then with the Governator. I also hope he makes a few more trips to Florida. Those are three prizes (NJ 15, OH 20, FL 27) which would all but make it impossible for sKerry to win even if he unleashes his 100,000 lawyers.
I think Wisconsin is more likely to support Bush. It's been trending Republican in elections across the board. Western Wisconsin, which was one of Gore's strongest rural areas in 2000, is now leaning towards Bush. By contrast, Iowa's block of committed liberals forms a larger portion of the overall electorate, and the voters who died or moved out of state over the years are more likely to be Republicans.
I still think that Bush could carry both states.
I spent many years doing Iowa politics.
I believe we're going to get it.
In terms of registrations, there are more R)s than D)s.
In fact, there are more independents than D)s...they place second to Republicans.
It can be very schizo, doing things like electing Grassley and Harkin to the Senate over and over, but the times they are achangin'...
but losing OHIO....need OHIO,these are just gravy
We should lure the Kerry campaign into putting to much emphasis on one state (Ohio), then put together a few smaller states... oh wait, that's what we are already doing.
Best possible pick up?
All I know is Wisconsin chicks know how to PARTY!!!!
Forget Iowa (idiots out walking around)
Concentrate on picking up cheese-head babes!
Bush will pick up WI, IA, NM, MI, PA, OR and more. Bank on it. This is not a close election, despite what Zogby is saying.
I'm an "inclusive" kinda guy, I'll take both.
Let's hope for both.