Kerry leads big in new reg. - Bush barely leads in early voting

Zogby ^

[dfdemar]

Per Zogby:

“It's still neck and neck, folks, and targeting is intense. With Bush and Kerry now tied among seniors, small wonder that Kerry is pushing hard on social security. Recall that in 2000 when Gore faced the same dilemma, he closed out the race winning seniors pressing the social security button. Bush’s lead among armed forces’ families is strong—maybe Sinclair hears the call to reinforce. Similarly, Kerry’s growing young voter appeal can only be helped by the ‘draft.’ Two new items to note: Among newly registered voters Kerry leads 52% to 38%; among those who have already voted, Bush leads 50% to 48%. These two groups bear watching.”

https://interactive.zogby.com/clickon/products.dbm (subscription)

[dfdemar]

How is Zogby getting these numbers?

[jmstein7]

Interesting.

[queenkathy]

Yes, I didn't think early voting was actually counted and released til Nov 2

[GeorgiaDawg]

How the hell would he know?

[KJacob]

Republicans have claimed that a lot of Democratic registrations are duplicates because both the party and 527's are involved.

[Inge C]

Zogby is a kerry shill, and I would not trust his numbers, it appears everytime Bush is up in the polls, he shows Bush down.

[dfdemar]

Maybe when he does his polls he asks people if they voted already.

[Peach]

Do some states permit early counting of absentee ballots?

[Wonder Warthog]

"How the hell would he know?"

Exit polling

[finnman69]

already posted

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1250834/posts

[Pikamax]

http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6553668

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry remain tied for the third consecutive day in the race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Less than two weeks before the Nov. 2 election, Bush and Kerry were deadlocked at 46 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll. They were tied at 45 percent the previous two days.

About 6 percent of likely voters are still undecided between the president and the Massachusetts senator, who clashed on Tuesday over Kerry's claims that Bush wants to privatize the Social Security retirement system. Bush accused Kerry of "scare tactics."

"With Bush and Kerry now tied among seniors, small wonder that Kerry is pushing hard on Social Security," said pollster John Zogby. He said Democrat Al Gore pressed the same issue in the late stages of the 2000 campaign and came out ahead among senior voters -- but lost the race to Bush.

The number of likely voters who thought Bush deserved re-election was 46 percent and the number who wanted someone new was 50 percent. Only 44 percent rated Bush's presidential performance as excellent or good, while 55 percent said it was fair or poor.

Kerry led 52 percent to 38 percent among newly registered voters, an unpredictable swing population that could become a huge factor if they vote in large numbers.

Bush spent the day in Florida while Kerry traveled to Pennsylvania and Ohio. Those three states, with a combined 68 electoral votes, are the biggest remaining prizes among 10 swing states still considered toss-ups.

The poll of 1,213 likely voters was taken Sunday through Tuesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

The poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Al Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with the support of 1.2 percent of likely voters.

[LibLieSlayer]

zog is using a "guess what the exit polling would say", if this were NOV 2. These votes will NOT be opened until Nov. 2 by Federal Law! He is using an online "interactive" poll of his subscribers. Anyone that would PAY zog for anything, is NOT representative of the American electorate!

LLS

[knak]

They're already counting early voters ballots? And releasing the numbers. I don't recall ever hearing of that before.

[The G Man]

So Bush has improved over 2000 with seniors, women, and blacks ... and he's going to lose because why???

[KJacob]

among those who have already voted, Bush leads 50% to 48%

This seems to be good news. With all the talk of early voting in Florida I would have thought Kerry would have a large lead.

[IndependantVoter]

still I like the fact that Bush is winning in the early voting.....I thought that the democrates were pushing it real real hard and exspected it to be in there camp...

[crushelits]

I will never believe what Zogby says. Zogby is the Dems mouthpiece.

[mlbford2]

My family went and voted today. That's 4 for W.

[Pharlap]

Lead among those who have already voted may be based on "exit polling." If so, it is not clear where such polling was being done. As to the new registration figures it is not clear where these numbers come from, e.g., California and New York vs Florida and Ohio; or, whether the newly registered were previously registered elsewhere; etc., etc.

[Novel]

I find this very encouraging. The Dems have been driving voters to the polls to vote early. They've been collecting completed absentee ballots and turning them in two at a time. The GOP hasn't been doing squat and Bush is ahead in early voting? Honestly, I expected Kerry to be up big.