[Truth666]

"To the best of my knowledge, not once [since 1998 when oil was around $11 per barrel] has any Wall Street firm forecast oil prices to be on a yearly uptrend," says Stephen Leeb, president of Leeb Capital Management, a New York investment manager and author of The Oil Factor (Warner Business 2004). Why has Wall Street missed it so badly? Leeb suggests that the answer lies not in economics, but in mass psychology, specifically studies of social conformity.
This article just has to be recorded for posterity ... $100, I mean, if there's one.

[SittinYonder]

Time to join the environmental whackos and buy a hybrid?

[zeugma]

the price of a barrel of oil is heading for $100

After the election, it will drop back to approximately $30 in relatively short order. This $50/bbl price is being held up by Soros and a few others. It won't last long past the election.

[Zeppelin]

A great portion of the problem is in the fact that India and China have such rapidly growing economies. As their industries grow, the demand for energy goes up. As demand goes up, the producers sell first to the highest bidders (America, Japan, European countries) and then whatever is left over is sold to the other countries. So, as China and India demand more and more energy, we have to pay more and more to outbid them. This problem SHOULD let up a bit in the next couple of years, due to the fact that both countries are experiencing ridiculous inflation.

[nonkultur]

If over $50 a barrel is anything near permanent. We would be seeing dozens of coal liquification plants opening for synthetic petroleum.

[dpwiener]

Oil prices may have spiked up, but they are not going to stay there long-term. Basic economic theory says that such high prices would quickly attract enormous research and development and investment in other energy sources (as well as conservation measures which are presently uneconomical). The eventual result in a few years will be a host of new sources, a glut of energy which will drive prices down far below current levels, and the demise of oil as the major source of the world's energy.

[narses]

Soros is manipulating the futures markets. This is hedge fund driven speculation, NOT supply and demand driven pricing.

[narses]

``Higher oil prices are certainly inflationary,'' said Stephen Leeb, who manages $100 million at New York-based Leeb Capital Management, ...


That may be the SMALLEST 'Capital Management' firm outside of Spokane I've ever heard of. And in Spokane it would be small, very, very small. With 8 staffers - http://www.leeb.net/our_people.html - and maybe a million a year in gross revenues, how much does he make for himself?

[PeterPrinciple]

Most soothsayers should be shot on site............

[Dog Gone]

Oh hell, when I signed on with an oil company 25 years ago, our annual forecasts predicted $100/bbl oil before 1990. What would that be in today's dollars, something like $175/bbl?

I've seen so many false predictions in my career that I don't believe anything anymore. Hurricane Ivan knocked off more than 1.5 million barrels of oil from the US market. We've recovered less than a third of it since, and the rest will take months because of the extensive damage to Gulf of Mexico offshore facilities.

But it will all come back on as soon as possible.

[GeronL]

start drilling AMWAR

[planekT]

The figures that I've heard is that oil would have to reach $80.00 dollars a barrel to equal the price we saw during the Arab oil embargo of the early seventies, adjusted for inflation.

Here are some things I've gathered to help put this in perspective. Around 1998, oil went to $10 dollars a barrel. If you looked at the cost to produce a barrel of crude at that time, it was something like this. 50 cents to a dollar a barrel in Saudi Arabia. The next closest competitor outside the Middle East was in the North Atlantic Sea, at around 10 dollars a barrel. In Texas, a barrel of crude cost around 17 dollars a barrel to produce.

10 dollars a barrel was a thirty year low in 98. Adjust for inflation (2.5% *30 years) and the price would be about 17.50 a barrel, at the lowest price thirty years ago.

The average price of all those years was probably around 21 bucks a barrel. I hate to break the news here, but obviously Middle Eastern countries have one hell of an advantage cost wise.

We should drill in Alaska I guess, but it is not a long term solution. We will never be able to compete with the Middle East for oil or gas, nor will anyone else. They have reserves you haven't' even heard of yet. The Empty Quadrant in Saudi Arabia is not empty.

We will do better dealing with the Middle East then not until we figure out something to burn other then oil. That day will come, but it is still a long way off.

Iraq could produce near what Saudi is doing today, and in pretty short order (less then a year from one fellow I know who estimated 6 or 8 million barrels a day) They are the immediate future.

[farmfriend]

ping

[Oreo Kookey]

This reply is just a rambling of what's been going on in my mind for weeks. Unless something happens to suddenly stop things in their tracks, it seems that there is a new normal invading our country and we have been accepting over 30-35 years these changes that have brought us to this point. What point? Well, that something that causes oil prices to sky rocket to 50 - 60 - 100 bucks a barrel. That something that causes us to be complacent about the possibility of gay marriage being legalized, or the ripping away of everything (they say - "religious") Christian. Courts that are making the laws when that is unlawful. People who lie, cheat, steal, rape, etc, are elected to pubic office on every level of government. And it's OK. Praying in schools is not allowed because someone started a rumor that there is separation of church and state provided in the Constitution, which is just another lie.

We kill 4 to 5 thousand babies every day in this country who haven't even had a chance at the pursuit of happiness guaranteed every American. Why? For our convenience. Doctors and the entire medical profession is falling apart because of layers and their greed. Didn't this start when they started advertising in the media?

Yes, I'm sick about oil prices for sure. The price of a tank of gas could rise to a price I can't afford so I can go see my kids who live 83 miles away. I'm sick of all of these things. My list is short compared to all the things I'll think of when I've pushed the Post button. Well, that's enough to get my drift. I must be in another blue funk.

I believe that the buck stops here. With each one of us. We like to blame the government, the police, ooh yes - that's a good one. Let's beat them up for doing their jobs. The politicians. Big business. But who are these people?

I guess it depends on what your definition of us is.

[stockstrader]

I think the markets are projecting a drop in oil prices because the markets are assuming a Bush victory--a Bush victory will bring increased drilling pressure in ANWR/on the mainland--and increased refining capability.
If Kerry should win, look for oil futures to rise--as the markets will perceive increased influence for the environmental lobby,,,and less influence from oil producers/refiners.

[valkyrieanne]

Let oil prices go high enough, and oil will be about as economical as whale oil is today. The higher the cost per barrel, the greater the economic incentive to find alternatives. The Arabs think they're playing a clever game, but they're going to price themselves right out of the game, eventually.

[1Old Pro]

Oil shouldn't be above $40/bbl. Somethings going on.

[azhenfud]

"Just as the current price increases are said to be fueled in part by rising demand from China and India, those countries will also play a large role in the long term. Leeb says that China and India now consume energy (not just oil, but all forms of power) at a per capita rate that is one half the world average. Compared to the rich nations like the U.S. and Western Europe, their per capita consumption is one-seventh as large. If these two countries become wealthy, as everyone expects they will, and merely start to consume like the rest of the world (forget about their consuming like the U.S.), that rise in demand will have a dramatic impact on world energy markets."

As I've thought before, the cheapie purchases from and outsourcing jobs to China and India now begin to cost us something. "Chickens come home to roost"?

[jmstein7]

Soros at work. All of this is being driven by heavy futures and forwards speculation.

So, any question who is behind this???

[biblewonk]

--snip--Leeb says that during the last oil crisis, the world was producing at 70% capacity. Now it's at 99%. Because there is no slack in the system, every time there is a trial in Russia, a strike in Venezuela, a hurricane off Louisiana or a surge in violence in the Middle East, the oil markets react dramatically.

Interesting.

[who knows what evil?]

I wouldn't worry about the cost of operating your car as much as I would worry about the cost of heating your home. That could become a life or death situation if oil prices "go to the moon".