Is Oil Heading For $100? (Why has Wall Street missed it so badly?)

Forbes ^ | 10.19.04 | Dan Ackman

[JasonC]

It has about $400 billion in foreign exchange reserves, mostly dollars but some Euros and some Yen. And last I checked, there were $4 trillion in US debts outstanding, which has another zero on it. Most of them are held by banks and other financial intermediaries, which means most of the final claimants are actually bank depositers. Not governments. Banks have depreciating liabilities to match their depreciating assets, so why would they care? Depositers deposit in no interest checking accounts and 1-3% CDs. Nobody shoots them if they don't, they could withdraw all their deposits tomorrow and walk around with pockets bulging with gold coins. But they don't.

[Oreo Kookey]

This reply is just a rambling of what's been going on in my mind for weeks. Unless something happens to suddenly stop things in their tracks, it seems that there is a new normal invading our country and we have been accepting over 30-35 years these changes that have brought us to this point. What point? Well, that something that causes oil prices to sky rocket to 50 - 60 - 100 bucks a barrel. That something that causes us to be complacent about the possibility of gay marriage being legalized, or the ripping away of everything (they say - "religious") Christian. Courts that are making the laws when that is unlawful. People who lie, cheat, steal, rape, etc, are elected to pubic office on every level of government. And it's OK. Praying in schools is not allowed because someone started a rumor that there is separation of church and state provided in the Constitution, which is just another lie.

We kill 4 to 5 thousand babies every day in this country who haven't even had a chance at the pursuit of happiness guaranteed every American. Why? For our convenience. Doctors and the entire medical profession is falling apart because of layers and their greed. Didn't this start when they started advertising in the media?

Yes, I'm sick about oil prices for sure. The price of a tank of gas could rise to a price I can't afford so I can go see my kids who live 83 miles away. I'm sick of all of these things. My list is short compared to all the things I'll think of when I've pushed the Post button. Well, that's enough to get my drift. I must be in another blue funk.

I believe that the buck stops here. With each one of us. We like to blame the government, the police, ooh yes - that's a good one. Let's beat them up for doing their jobs. The politicians. Big business. But who are these people?

I guess it depends on what your definition of us is.

[oceanview]

don't say that - the free traders will be trashing you if you mention offshoring and wage deflation, which they swear is not happening, so long as the compensation of the executive suite and government workers are included.

[Truth666]

That leads me to answer the core question of this thread :

Why has Wall Street missed it so badly?

Just like in the case of Ivan losses (less than 0.5% of world's daily ouput), it seems that Wall Street is not capable of performing elementary arithmentic operations.
Take for instance this ... : Unlike in the early 1980s, when most of the oil the U.S. consumed was still domestic, now 57% of the oil consumed in the U.S. is imported (see: "New Oil Crisis: 1979 In Spades").
http://forbes.com/home/energy/2004/10/18/cx_da_1018topnews.html

[Dog Gone]

I work for a major oil company with major operations in the Gulf of Mexico, and I can tell you that it's far more than that. I get daily reports. I read them.

[AdamSelene235]

This sums up the problem nicely:

The US as a Nebt Debtor: The Sustainability of US External Imbalances

[Texas Songwriter]

You have stumbled upon the truth. The real danger to the American way of life....life as we have come to know it, is that the dollar has been destroyed by Alan Greenspan's easy money policy. He took fed rates to 1% while the treasury sold fiat money to Japan,Swiss, and any other entity that the Fed could coerce into buying essentially diminishing in value dollars. Once he got to 1% he was, in essence, paying banks who borrow from the fed to borrow money. This is in addition to the profligate spending of the US government. Then at low interest rates everyone and his dog borrowed money for cars, refinancing already paid for homes, credit card buying, and now the time is rapidly approaching to pay the piper. The USDX (dollar) is beginning a rapid decay and today was about 88. The price of gold has a direct inverse relationship to the dollar. I suggest you releive yourself of as much paper as possible and get physical gold. The dollar, I fear, at this time next year will cease to be the world's reserve currency. Conditions today do no mimick 1973 in that today there is not an oil shortage but rather an oil access shortage...more demand from China and India and others. If alqaeda were to stop the flow of oil by blowing a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, the Panama canl, the Suez Canal,the Strait of Gabralta oil will immediately go to well over 125 dollars per barrel. But most importantly your way of life, your job, the American existance would cease to exist. We (USA) need to drill in ANWAR, develope nuclear facilities, and even put some wind mills off of the shore of Martha's Vinyard just to spite Kerry and Moma T. We are in one hell of a spot and the day of reconing is here. God help us if Kerry gets into the White House. Now we stand at the precipice of inflation like in 1980 when we saw 18% interest rates. I don't know about you but I will not buy anything on time with high interest rates. There goes the jobs. The only way to get out of it is hyperinflation. The government cannot lower interest rates. It went to 1% and was in essence giveing federal reserve notes away. Do you think the government will lower the tax rate and adjust your tax bill as you are paid in less and less valuable dollars. I don't think so. So here we are... you and me and the poverty pimps screaming ant the elected officials to give us a break. If I were taking bets, I'd go with the pimps because there are more votes. Remember what a great thinker once said, "When the electorate realizes they can vote themselves a raise from the public largess, this consitutional republic is over."

[Blood of Tyrants]

Time to kick the envirowackos the hell out of every legislature in the country and drill for oil HERE!

[cmotormac44]

and on and on---all pointing to the Bibical Prophecies of 'end times' and the world turmoil that will take place--God still Rules in the affairs of men!--no one has to believe but it will take place (and right on the Lords timetable)

[cmotormac44]

and on and on---all pointing to the Bibical Prophecies of 'end times' and the world turmoil that will take place--God still Rules in the affairs of men!--no one has to believe but it will take place (and right on the Lords timetable)

[narses]

``Higher oil prices are certainly inflationary,'' said Stephen Leeb, who manages $100 million at New York-based Leeb Capital Management, ...


That may be the SMALLEST 'Capital Management' firm outside of Spokane I've ever heard of. And in Spokane it would be small, very, very small. With 8 staffers - http://www.leeb.net/our_people.html - and maybe a million a year in gross revenues, how much does he make for himself?

[narses]

``Higher oil prices are certainly inflationary,'' said Stephen Leeb, who manages $100 million at New York-based Leeb Capital Management, ...


That may be the SMALLEST 'Capital Management' firm outside of Spokane I've ever heard of. And in Spokane it would be small, very, very small. With 8 staffers - http://www.leeb.net/our_people.html - and maybe a million a year in gross revenues, how much does he make for himself?

[Oreo Kookey]

"...all pointing to the Bibical Prophecies of 'end times' and the world turmoil that will take place--God still Rules in the affairs of men!--no one has to believe but it will take place (and right on the Lords timetable)"

Thanks "44". I really needed that reminder tonight. Appreciate it!

[Kornev]

Eh, maybe they have comfortable long lasting jobs.

Otherwise, most skilled tech people with a job (or without one) will experience severe wage deflation.

I'm seeing stuff down to $10/hr now, without benefits, which used to be $25/hr with benefits. Now you're lucky to get $10/hr without benefits.

[Malsua]

If over $50 a barrel is anything near permanent. We would be seeing dozens of coal liquification plants opening for synthetic petroleum.

The break even on that is around $60/barrel. With Efficiencies, that may be possible at $50, but $60 is the magic number.

I'll also just add that Saudi Arabia is maxxed out on the sweet crude...their extra production is sour crude. That doesn't help anything. There simply aren't enough refineries that can deal with the high sulfer crude out of SA or even Iraq for that matter. We really need to get back to coal/steam and solar to ween ourselves off of oil imports.

[LibertarianInExile]

jinx jinx jinx

[Dog Gone]

Maybe he only manages $100 million out of a much larger account. Otherwise I know many dweebs who manage more than that in a bank trust department. Some are pretty sharp. Some are something less than dweebs.

[Truth666]

it seems that Wall Street is not capable of performing elementary arithmentic operations.
But I took one minute to compute that figure, as of one week ago, and the result was ... 66.1% http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1043049/posts?#23

[stockstrader]

I think the markets are projecting a drop in oil prices because the markets are assuming a Bush victory--a Bush victory will bring increased drilling pressure in ANWR/on the mainland--and increased refining capability.
If Kerry should win, look for oil futures to rise--as the markets will perceive increased influence for the environmental lobby,,,and less influence from oil producers/refiners.

[ARCADIA]

Greenspan manages quite a chunk and he remains a first rate dweeb in my book. That SOB created the smoke screen that blinded us while we were raped.