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Is Oil Heading For $100? (Why has Wall Street missed it so badly?)
Forbes ^
| 10.19.04
| Dan Ackman
Posted on 10/19/2004 6:52:31 PM PDT by Truth666
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"To the best of my knowledge, not once [since 1998 when oil was around $11 per barrel] has any Wall Street firm forecast oil prices to be on a yearly uptrend," says Stephen Leeb, president of Leeb Capital Management, a New York investment manager and author of The Oil Factor (Warner Business 2004). Why has Wall Street missed it so badly? Leeb suggests that the answer lies not in economics, but in mass psychology, specifically studies of social conformity.
This article just has to be recorded for posterity ... $100, I mean, if there's one.
1
posted on
10/19/2004 6:52:32 PM PDT
by
Truth666
To: Truth666
Time to join the environmental whackos and buy a hybrid?
2
posted on
10/19/2004 6:55:45 PM PDT
by
SittinYonder
(Tancredo and I wanna know what you believe)
To: SittinYonder
Bear in mind that this is really about market manipulation and fears of instability if Kerry is elected. There will be a huge drop in prices if Bush is elected, since the market 'knows' what he will do. Kerry, on the other hand, is a crapshoot.
3
posted on
10/19/2004 6:58:48 PM PDT
by
LibertarianInExile
(The Fourth Estate is the Fifth Column.)
To: Truth666
the price of a barrel of oil is heading for $100After the election, it will drop back to approximately $30 in relatively short order. This $50/bbl price is being held up by Soros and a few others. It won't last long past the election.
4
posted on
10/19/2004 6:58:58 PM PDT
by
zeugma
(Come to the Dark Side...... We have cookies!)
To: zeugma
I agree.
but if it doesn't fall back to $40, if it stays in the mid 50s or higher, there will be a recession in 2005.
5
posted on
10/19/2004 7:01:44 PM PDT
by
oceanview
To: SittinYonder
Time to build more nuke power plants
6
posted on
10/19/2004 7:02:41 PM PDT
by
SauronOfMordor
(Earth First! We'll strip-mine the other planets later...)
To: SittinYonder
I think what is happening with oil is somewhat reminiscent of the food supply situation. From what I understand, there is more than enough food to feed the world, the problem is distribution. Oil appears to be in abundance, however, the infrastructure is not capable of meeting demand.
7
posted on
10/19/2004 7:03:13 PM PDT
by
stylin_geek
(Kedwards have been on so many sides of the issues, they've created a new geometric shape)
To: zeugma
$40 maybe. In a market like this, even a freshman trader can't go wrong.
To: Eric in the Ozarks
its being manuiplated by the DNC goons...... jezz just wait till the election is over ...... if dems win it will go down if not it will go up ....
9
posted on
10/19/2004 7:05:11 PM PDT
by
Gibtx
(Pajamahadien call to arms.....)
To: oceanview; zeugma; Truth666
If oil prices don't drop back we will have more stories of old people being found frozen to death in unheated apartments like back in the 70's. And as you say a deeper recession. And a series of unstable, one term presidents.
To: LibertarianInExile
Not if but when President Bush is reelected
11
posted on
10/19/2004 7:08:33 PM PDT
by
Kaslin
(Stick a fork in Kerry, he is done)
To: Truth666
A great portion of the problem is in the fact that India and China have such rapidly growing economies. As their industries grow, the demand for energy goes up. As demand goes up, the producers sell first to the highest bidders (America, Japan, European countries) and then whatever is left over is sold to the other countries. So, as China and India demand more and more energy, we have to pay more and more to outbid them. This problem SHOULD let up a bit in the next couple of years, due to the fact that both countries are experiencing ridiculous inflation.
12
posted on
10/19/2004 7:09:42 PM PDT
by
Zeppelin
(John Kerry - Because holding every position on every issue is not easy.)
To: Truth666
If over $50 a barrel is anything near permanent. We would be seeing dozens of coal liquification plants opening for synthetic petroleum.
To: Truth666
Oil prices may have spiked up, but they are not going to stay there long-term. Basic economic theory says that such high prices would quickly attract enormous research and development and investment in other energy sources (as well as conservation measures which are presently uneconomical). The eventual result in a few years will be a host of new sources, a glut of energy which will drive prices down far below current levels, and the demise of oil as the major source of the world's energy.
14
posted on
10/19/2004 7:16:51 PM PDT
by
dpwiener
To: SittinYonder
Why don't you join the ownership society, and buy oil stocks?
I get much more in dividends than I spend on gas.
To: Truth666; GatorGirl; maryz; afraidfortherepublic; Antoninus; Aquinasfan; livius; goldenstategirl; ..
Soros is manipulating the futures markets. This is hedge fund driven speculation, NOT supply and demand driven pricing.
16
posted on
10/19/2004 7:19:52 PM PDT
by
narses
(If you want ON or OFF my Catholic Ping List email me. + http://www.alamo-girl.com/)
To: nonkultur
Exactly. Same thing in the late 70's and early 80's. People actually believed it then, and stuff started to get built. We aren't running out of oil, but we are near the end of really really cheap oil. There are massive oil shales, synthetic possibilities, etc., but they are only economical at a price that is higher than we have seen in the past 20 years.
17
posted on
10/19/2004 7:19:53 PM PDT
by
machman
To: All
...a gallon of gasoline is still cheaper than a gallon of milk or the bottled water in the cupholder.
Maybe it's time to buy a new SUV, not a hybrid!
To: nonkultur
If over $50 a barrel is anything near permanent.
It is not the rising oil prices that bother me; its the ever shrinking dollar that expresses itself as a rise in oil price. If we don't start manufacturing soon we are going to need a wheelbarrow of dollars to buy a gallon of gas.
19
posted on
10/19/2004 7:20:49 PM PDT
by
ARCADIA
(Abuse of power comes as no surprise)
To: oceanview
if it stays in the mid 50s or higher, there will be a recession in 2005. If that is true, such a recession would start today.
$60 oil would make "heavy hybrids" an economic slam-dunk. And we would have to start building PBRs. But it's not the end of the world.
20
posted on
10/19/2004 7:21:33 PM PDT
by
eno_
(Freedom Lite, it's almost worth defending.)
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