Posted on 10/19/2004 2:08:34 PM PDT by VAGOP
President Bush 51 Kerry 46
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Our friends at DU are already celebrating, as they are suffering delusions that Kerry is going to win in a landslide.
I like that "51" number.
Good news (for the popular vote anyway) between this and the Fox one out today. Heard there may be an LA Times poll out today too? Anyone know?
I just read on FOX's website that he is leading in their figures also. More significant is that:
"Are voters backing their candidate because they like him or because they dislike the other candidate? Almost all Bush supporters (81 percent) describe their vote as being "for Bush," with only 15 percent saying their vote is "against Kerry."
Supporters of the Democratic challenger are more divided, as 56 percent say their vote is "for Kerry" and 37 percent say "against Bush." Positive feelings among Kerry voters have increased significantly since early September when a large minority (41 percent) described their vote as "for Kerry" and a 51 percent majority said "against Bush."
When the Dems are voting "against" Bush instead of "for" Kerry, that bodes ill for him. They will not be as motivated to get to the polls.
I have always voted, but i have never cared this much about an election before and i'm not sure why. If you can explain this to me i would appreciate it.
Pass the tissue please, this makes me very happy. Now let's see those state polls up.
10/17/04 - Summary Table - Likely Voters
Both Neither No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) op.
a. He is honest and
trustworthy 49 39 2 7 2
b. He understands the
problems of people like
you 46 45 1 6 2
c. He is a strong leader 57 37 2 2 2
e. He has taken a clear
stand on the issues 55 36 2 6 1
I don't buy into the weekend poll theory in the first place, especially for polls that weight by party ID (which includes, I think, the Washington Post poll we are talking about here). Democrats also have errands to run, things to do, places to go, etc.
In any event, when it comes to tracking polls, it is always a good idea to compare a daily result with the same result from a week ago to see if there has been any movement over the course of the week. If a week seems a bit too long, pick at least three days to make sure that none of the samples overlap.
In this case, the sample today shows that Bush gained a net of one point over Kerry over the last three days.
I have always voted, but i have never cared this much about an election before and i'm not sure why. If you can explain this to me i would appreciate it.
Maybe it's because you realize that it is our generation that must take a stand against terrorism or we say "goodbye" to the civalized world as we know it?
THat first one should be correct
Ditto.. thanks for posting my thoughts.
"I have always voted, but i have never cared this much about an election before and i'm not sure why. If you can explain this to me i would appreciate it."
Not at all to be a smart alec, but I think it is called "growing up." Even adults sometimes don't grow up to latter in life. It is a matter of becoming aware of what is at stake.
Make that purple Kool Aid, the flavor preferred by zombies. And don't forget the arsenic flying off the shelves, too.
What are they celebrating?
They have to leave messages in pumpkins.
If "male men" are undercounted, as you surmise, what men are overcounted?
Sorry Working Men, got typing to fast for my own good
Did did WP do an endorsement yet?
Some more great internals from today's poll:
1. Bush now leads by nine points in the midwest -- this means that he is surging again in places like Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
2. He leads by at least six points among every age group except the 18-30 group, which is the group least likely to vote and most likely to change their mind before voting. These numbers, perhaps more than any other, indicate a coming blowout for Bush, although the poll numbers as a whole do not yet make the case conclusively that a blowout may happen.
3. He is starting to peel off more Democrats than a few days ago.
4. He has now pulled even with women, while leading big with men.
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