Posted on 10/19/2004 12:56:40 PM PDT by WoodstockCat
CHATTING WITH A LONGTIME GOP OPERATIVE
I wish Bush supporters who feel pessimistic or jittery could listen to the phone conversation I just had with a longtime GOP operative. This gentleman, who has been in politics longer than I have been alive, states:
* If the Washington Post/ABC tracking poll gets any more separation in the coming days, and there’s one or two good state polls for Bush, this race is over.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
beat me to it, I was about to post this:
I wish Bush supporters who feel pessimistic or jittery could listen to the phone conversation I just had with a longtime GOP operative. This gentleman, who has been in politics longer than I have been alive, states:
* If the Washington Post/ABC tracking poll gets any more separation in the coming days, and there’s one or two good state polls for Bush, this race is over.
* The Cincinnati University poll showing Kerry up by 2 is “garbage.” It’s conducted over an entire week. The internals show Kerry leading among men 50 to 46 (what?) and leading 47 to 46 among women. Also note they have Kerry getting 95 percent of the African-American vote, when a national poll showed Bush getting 18 percent. Also note that Kerry leads among Democrats 88 to 7, independents 55 to 26, but still leads the overall poll by only two points.
* In any given cycle, the polls show about five or six GOP Senate candidates in competitive trailing who end up winning. This year, there are about six GOP Senate candidates leading in competitive races.
* In the past week or so, we’ve seen Team Kerry go after Mary Cheney; the candidate himself charge that Bush is going to bring back the draft; the citing of a disputed New York Times quote to allege that Bush is going to privatize Social Security; Kerry assert that if you get the flu this winter it’s George W. Bush’s fault; and that George W. Bush is lying when he says he wants the generals in the field to get what they need. (From the man who voted against the $87 billion!) What is this a sign of? Not a confident and aggressive campaign, but a desperate and flailing campaign.
The timing of the Social Security attacks were particularly baffling to this veteran of GOP campaigns. “Way too early,” he said. “If they did this the last weekend of the campaign, it would reach seniors, and the Bush folks wouldn’t have time to make a response. But instead they do it now.” The Bush team is responding already, and the attacks will be old news by the time Election Day rolls around.
Why would Team Kerry go so negative, so fast, so hard, and so outlandishly? They sensed a serious drop in the polls, this operative suspects. They expected to come roaring out of the debates, and instead, they’re acting as if things have really started to go south.
I don’t know if this operative is right about everything, but I sure as heck respect his instincts and his assessment.
also
Fox News/OD Poll: BUSH LEADS IN OHIO!! 49-44
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1250176/posts
According to the way the NAACP is registering voters, I am not so sure those numbers are incompatible. They only add up to 113%, and that's before including the Nader vote.
ping
FOX News and the CNN/Gallup Polls show a bump for Bush in the last 2 weeks, still not even tracking fallout from the last debate that Bush won.
Bush is a lock. I don't really get the sense that there are all that many weak-kneed freepers either. Now the hysterically cocooning lefties are a different story.
I almost stayed off FR today because of the poll panic ...I didn't believe the Bush 13% ahead poll and I don't go to pieces every time we show a point down..
NO COMPLACENCY..Get out the vote and go out and vote!
BUSH/CHENEY 04..FOR THE SAKE OF OUR NATION
Good analysis. I've never seen a more amateurish or incompetently run national campaign. Everything Kerry does is a lesson for national politicians to avoid. The University Of Cincinnati poll does appear to be an outlier and since its internals are so badly messed up, it has no credibility whatsoever. Good reading of the the state of the race from a seasoned political operative.
Everything is moving in the President's direction. It won't even be close enough for Kerry's lawyers to try and muck up. Turn out will wipe out Kerry.
Total garbage. No way Kerry gets 95% of the Black vote. Even Algore got 91% and I don't think any Democratic candidate can improve on it. Trust me, Kerry will be lucky to get 85% of the Black vote this time around.
The feeling in the Black community is lukewarm at best towards Kerry. He'll win most of their votes but any one who thinks he'll match or exceed Algore's 91% figure from four years ago is delusional.
Just in case you're still in panic mode.
;^)
Very encouraging! Thanks for posting! The only thing I question is the comment about it being too early on the scare tactics. Wouldn't you have to pull out the scare tactics earlier since places like Florida have the new "early voting"? Couldn't that explain why it's happening earlier?
Robert Wexler files suit over computer voting (No Chads to Hang)
If I thought that the Democrats were not resorting to the largest voter fraud effort in the history of the US, I would rest a lot easier.
I figure for every one Republican vote, there may be three dead people, imaginary people, or voters registered in more than one state casting a dem vote.
Ping for the wobbly.
I don't think the voter fraud will be much worse than normal.
We just hear more about it since we are online.
I wonder about how people answer when asked who won a debate. Some seem to answer the one who looked like he used all the debating tricks, not the one who convinced them. Sort of like a "popularity contest" in which everyone votes for the one they think is "popular," whether they actually like the person or not.
Thanks for the article.....Robert Wexler already complaining sure doesn't surprise me....I tend to turn off the TV when he's on. Thankfully he's not on as often as he was right after the 2000 election.
I really am not trying to be a nervous nelly, but I do wonder how much the early voting might change election strategies on both sides.
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