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The guys at realclearpolitics are pretty sharp. My main concern right now is that I can think of lots of soft reasons to believe that Bush will win -- including many in this article -- but the EC map isn't pointing to a clear Bush win (to put it mildly). I do think that the undecideds will ultimately split their vote or go with Bush, as they do in most Presidential elections. But that remains to be seen, both nationally and in the battleground states.

"My main concern right now is that I can think of lots of soft reasons to believe that Bush will win " No "soft" reasons here. They are all cold hard facts. Its virtually impossible for Bush to be ahead by an average of over 3% (Bush is ahead by 3.2% at RealClearPolitics right now http://realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html )and lose the electoral votes count. That just doesn't compute. Never happened before. Won't happen this ear either. Bush is ahead 3.3% with 2 weeks to go, after being solidly ahead since the start of September. Bush WILL win reelection comfortably. Bet on it. The presidential elections markets (where people bet real money) already have in spite of Soros's attempts at manipulating the markets. :) http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Markets.html