Replies

"My main concern right now is that I can think of lots of soft reasons to believe that Bush will win " No "soft" reasons here. They are all cold hard facts. Its virtually impossible for Bush to be ahead by an average of over 3% (Bush is ahead by 3.2% at RealClearPolitics right now http://realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html )and lose the electoral votes count. That just doesn't compute. Never happened before. Won't happen this ear either. Bush is ahead 3.3% with 2 weeks to go, after being solidly ahead since the start of September. Bush WILL win reelection comfortably. Bet on it. The presidential elections markets (where people bet real money) already have in spite of Soros's attempts at manipulating the markets. :) http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Markets.html

Well, the 3.2% lead (before the just released FNC poll showing Dubya up by seven) is very signficant because it represents an aggregate of several polls taken at roughly the same time. We don't have this same level of data on a state by state level, e.g. three or four current Ohio or Florida polls that we can average, as opposed to the stray poll here or the stray poll there that are all over the place.