Eyewitness Report from Bush's Speech in New Jersey

Eyewitness Account ^ | 18 Oct 2004 | Rokke

[Rokke]

And oh by the way, while I'm babbling let me comment briefly on some things I've read on FreeRepublic tonight.

The polls...First the Rasmussen Poll. The results of the Rasmussen Poll flow in cycles. Almost every single week there is a day or two in which the gap narrows to a few tenths of a percentage. And then every single week, a few day later Bush moves ahead by 3 or 4 points. For the most part, these swings seem to result from weekend polling. Tomorrow, Kerry may well take the lead in Rasmussen's poll. My estimate of the three day rolling sample is 48.9/50.5/43.4 Bush, 47.2/46/48.7 Kerry. Bush needs a better day tomorrow than the one that is about to fall off (48.9-47.2). On the bright side, his average is just over 48% and Kerry's is about 46%. On the down side, for whatever reason, Kerry historically generates better numbers on Monday's (which will be the newest numbers in tomorrow's average). So tomorrow, Kerry might squeak ahead. BUT DON'T PANIC. What until Friday, and take a look at the numbers then. If he remains ahead, then we probably have a shift.

Now, take a look at the other polls...forget Zogby. Nobody knows how he is polling and his methodology is COMPLETELY different from his 2000 polling, so comparisons to his relatively average accuracy then don't apply. How about ABC/WP. Tomorrow's numbers will reflect polling from Saturday/Sunday/Monday. Expect their numbers to tighten. Again, wait until Friday before you draw any conclusions. I don't know anything about the TIPP poll, but it doesn't seem to change much anyway, so who knows.

So what is my grand conclusion with respect to the current trend in polls...Wait until Thursday or Friday to get the best picture. If you don't think weekend polling doesn't affect the polls, take a look at the last three Gallup polls. The first two of the last three were weekend polls and showed Bush tied and then down by 1. The last Gallup poll was done Thurs-Sat and showed Bush up 8. And in case anyone missed the latest update to the Battleground Poll, you will notice that they don't even poll on weekends, because the resulting polling data is so inaccurate.

Finally, I'm reading a lot of panic about the very latest state polls. Guess what. The Survey USA polls were all done over the weekend. Enough said.

[Texasforever]

Your analysis of Rassmussen was right on target withi what I have seen. GW dominates Wednesday thru Saturday and it tightens up Sunday thru Tuesday.

[buckeyesrule]

Rush Limbaugh carried a big part of the speech live on his radio show.

[Maynerd]

Bump. You lucky dog.

[Txsleuth]

Thank you for the 411 on the Bush speech as well as the polling numbers. Just came off of the RealclearPolitic thread and there are some really down posters because of some of the numbers.

I think the polls are sort of like the media, the media will slant every story towards Kerry, and I get the feeling that the polls do the same thing. So, I stopped paying attention to MSM and the polls.

I watched Bush's speech today - I just wish it was on prime-time. He was awesome.

[rj45mis]

Cool! I've seen Bush twice here in WI. He is dynamite!

[Yardstick]

I had the good fortune of catching the NJ speech on Rush's show today. It was a great speech and a great crowd. Even through 5" car speakers I could sense the energy in the room.

[Prov3456]

Interesting eyewitness report, thank you!

Also noteworthy observations about the polls and polling, but they cause me some worry. IMO, the Tuesday results are the results of the Sunday news shows and MSM spin all weekend. Given that election day is Tuesday and just after the MSM weekend spin, I hope and pray that the only poll that matters puts President Bush back in office for four more years.

[GeronL]

BIG BUMP

[plushaye]

Thanks for the eyewitness account..and also for the poll analysis! The weekend seems to regularly skew the polls in a negative way. I have seen this on Rasmussen, and WaPo tracking . I didn't realize that it was on Gallup too. Makes sense it would be. It doesn't seem to affect the TIPP tracking as much, but definitely the new SUSA state polls are suspect.

[MEG33]

I loved that speech!..So glad you were there!

[onyx eyes]

I saw President Bush in New Jersey today on television. Bush was Awesome!

[sweetiepiezer]

Here is a letter I received today from someone else who saw this speech.

I just watched President Bush give a speech to a record breaking crowd in New Jersey. It was clearly the best speech he has ever given. It became "crystal clear" (Kerry's clicheé's) ...to me.... IF YOU ARE A PATRIOT -YOU ARE VOTING FOR GEORGE W. BUSH!!!!! There is no question about it. The President went down the list, of everything I have written to you. I knew Kerry and his team HAD to be feeling the defeat. Holbrook came right out after the speech and said all of the Dems "talking points". (LIES). Fortunately, the interviewer, who is from New Jersey, stuck it to him and threw his lies back in his face!! Holbrook is just hoping for a job out of it.

Then Kerry comes on, speaking in Tampa, Florida today. I saw a man who not only feels defeated, but his voice was hoarse. He certainly does NOT speak with "moral clarity"!!! or any clarity! He now has a problem choking out his deceit.!!! He actually said "I will never send Troops into war without the necessary equipment". I think he has the beginnings of Alzheimer's, which would explain his begging for stem cell research, and calling Christopher Reeves, his friend... tho Kerry calls him "Chris REEVE". Hmmm.... Buzzer - WRONG ANSWER! NOT HIS NAME !!!! He might wanna practice that a little better. ?? Maybe he can get his "friends" name right, !!!! making it a tad more believable??... Kerry VOTED AGAINST THE 87 BILLION TO FUND OUR TROOPS. It IS on record, you can look it up. Maybe he forgot???? LIES LIES and more lies....... He is now, literally, making me ill. He is desperate, as the President IS a head in the polls,!! and it is spewing out of Kerry loud & clear, or... loud & hoarse rather. Just the fact that he is such a pessimist should make people nervous!! Kerry was behind in August, then climbed as the debates, and tied, only now... he is back to being behind, and the President's lead rises higher by the day!! It is the truth coming out :) The Kerry campaign is now grasping, and it is very obvious to us smart American's.

The way New Jersey rallied around the President today was phenomenal. They, like most of us, know we fight it over there, or we fight it over here. Depending on how people vote, will dictate that. No question. New Jersey knows it personally, as lost many in 9-11. THEY take this election very seriously. I pray we all do. There is only one vote, to STAY SAFE, and support our Troops!!!!!!! There is only one man who has proven this, George W. Bush.

[prairiebreeze]

The Pres was one steeley-eyed missile man and the crowd was awesome.

Big ol' New Jersey Bump and ping!

[Rushmore Rocks]

A really GREAT post.

Thanks for the first hand account.

I got to visit with him when he was at Mt. Rushmore a couple of years ago. An awesome experience......one I'll never forget.

[arasina]

Thanks for the eyewitness report! (I'm envious.) I certainly wouldn't call it "babbling."

I like your take on the polls (even though I don't watch them myself) and I REALLY like your positive attitude!

[pissant]

Just look at Kerry. A haggard looking pantywaist who would be 15 points behind if the MSM wasn't propping his sorry carcass up. No matter, the victory will be all the more sweet with the Rathers and Jennings off the world so downtrodden Nov. 2.

[Petronski]

For reference.

[bayourod]

Thanks for the report and your service.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

SurveyUSA has been both highly reliable and unreliable this year - really all over the map.

Look at their Michigan polls. Every single one all year long was either a 3 point spread or a 10 point spread. What are the chances?