Iowa Electronic Market - Kerry versus Bush - gap grows wider

Iowa Electronic Markets ^

[LeftCoastNeoCon]

Iowa Electronic Markets Pres04_WTA 2004 US Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm

[LeftCoastNeoCon]

Looks like the best showing since the end of September.

[counterpunch]

[Neoc0n]

I'm also a left coast neocon :) Nice to know I'm not the only one.

[Plutarch]

I cannot figure out what the IEM quotes mean. Can you explain them? They are in decimals such as 0.276 etc.

[counterpunch]

Well remember that what really caused the gap the jump was all of the post convention polls that showed Bush 53% to Kerry 42%.

With Bush 51% toKerry 45%, we're almost back to that now.

[counterpunch]

Same here!

[MHT]

What's the history of this as an election predictor?

[FairOpinion]

I was just looking at it. Bush is at 0.603!

I hope Kerry will nosedive nicely down to about 0.2 by election day.

[Enduring Freedom]

Smart money is on Kerry tanking.

Looks like the debates were simply a buying opportunity.

[West Coast Conservative]

Left coast neocon here too!

[datura]

If you're into betting on the election - or any other event that you want to wager on - go to Strategy Page.com and check out their prediction market. You can even post your own scenario for others to bet on.

Strategy Page.com

Just click on Prediction Market once there.

[Neoc0n]

Us left-coast neoconservatives need to organize, I think.

[flashbunny]

as a predictor of the popular vote, quite good, actually.

[Boundless]

So it's never really favored Kerry except during the DNC?

And why aren't the plots exact mirror images?
3rd-party candidates?

[LeftCoastNeoCon]

I'm not sure where these decimals are that you are talking about, besides the dollar amounts on the left of the graph. Where do you see a .276?

[counterpunch]

Looks like the debates were simply a buying opportunity

That's right...
Bush threw the first debate on purpose just to profit his rich electronic market stocktrader buddies.

[LeftCoastNeoCon]

**What's the history of this as an election predictor?**

I don't know.

Anybody else know?

But I figure that when money is involved there's not as much wishful thinking.

[okie01]

What's the history of this as an election predictor?

The IEM closed in 2000 with Gore at 50.04% of the two-party vote, Bush with 49.96.

[counterpunch]

The shares for Bush and Kerry are independent, however the going price of one is going to create market pressures which affect the price of the other. They will tend to create a natural equilibrium. But ust because the winning stock pays $1 and he losing stock pays nothing, it doesn't actually mean that at any given time the two must sum to $1.

[LeftCoastNeoCon]

**I was just looking at it. Bush is at 0.603!**

I'm not seeing these four digit decimal numbers. Where do you see this "0.603"? Perhaps my browser isn't displaying this info. I'm on Safari on a Mac.

All I see is the graph (which looks pretty good to me!)