Electoral College Scoreboard: Bush Bounce, 303-245.

washington dispatch ^ | 10/17/04

[knak]

The red states increased a bit this week as the good polling news just keeps coming for President George W. Bush. In a shocker, Oregon will flip to the Bush column, due to a Riley Research poll (PDF) that showed the president with a 48%-43% lead. While it should be unlikely that any Republican would capture Oregon’s seven Electoral College votes, the state does have a Constitutional amendment “defining marriage” as between one man and one woman on the ballot for November 2nd.

The margin is huge in favor of the state Constitutional Amendment 57%-36%.

[West Coast Conservative]

Good stuff. Let's hope it's a trend.

[Recovering_Democrat]

I don't believe it. First of all, everyone knows the dead, felons, pets and double voters for Kerry will MORE than make up for the current Bush lead among "living, breathing" voters.

Second of all, Chris Wallace of Fox News himself said yesterday, in a brilliant analysis on the Geraldo show, that MODERATE REPUBLICANS were going to bail on George W. Bush because of stem cell research.

Finally, John Kerry's dynamic speaking style and charisma are about to kick in and he will roll to victory.

Oh, and uh...< \sarcasm>

[Jeff Head]

I'm calling it for Bush...320 to 218

[Petronski]

I stand by my spring prediction: 340.

[Imperialist]

I'm calling it for Bush...320 to 218

Yeah! 4 more years!

[garbanzo]

Not to be a "pessimist" - I say about 300-302 EVs. I hope I'm undercounting.

[badmrbunny]

let's drop a bomb on kerry. i am ready for a october surprise featuring kerry.

[knak]

I'm very ready!!!!!

[txhurl]

bump

[MHT]

In a time of terrorism, war, and economic crossroads, I can't imagine that even moderate Republicans are one-issue focused and that issue, this time, is stem-cell research. Even Charles Krauthammer, who would most benefit by a miraculous development in spinal rejuvenation, says that stem-cell research has such a long way to go that more money put into on-going conventional research will reap more applicable benefits sooner than will stem-cell research. In fact, this President is the first to open up any kind of funding (albeit private) for stem-cell research.

The Economist magazine from UK ran an article a couple of weeks ago about the power of evangelical conservative Christians as a voting block. They abandoned W. the last week of the last election because of the DUI charge. This time, Rove has courted them and they are back and largely outnumber the more moderate Republicans. In Missouri alone, a state which has been ceded by Kerry, they comprise 36% of the voting population. And Missouri was considered a battleground bell-weather state.

My concern is that a last-minute "revelation" about W. will again keep them home, e.g., he took a girlfriend to an abortion, etc. The religious community is also planning a march on Washington in the next few days, which will be greatly attended. In the world of voting groups, I think that those to the "right" who vote outnumber those "moderates" who pivot easily.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

I'm calling it for Bush with 374 Electoral Votes, 52-47 Popular Vote. All 2000 states plus NJ, DE, PA, MI, WI, IA, MN, NM, OR, and ME CD2.

US Senate, Republicans at least +5 (southern sweep plus SD).

We'll be in bed early. Little Tommy Dasshole will be going home early.

Clear repudiation of 4 years of obstructionism by the Democrats.

This election is not a blowout, but it is not really close and hasn't been since mid-August.

[TommyDale]

This shouldn't be a shocker, as it was a major strategy to put the homosexual marriage ban on state ballots in order to strengthen the base of conservative voters.

[PJ-Comix]

Don't count on Ohio and Florida going for Bush. Yes, I believe the majority of REAL voters in both states will favor Bush but there will also be MASSIVE voter fraud in both states on a level unheard of before. And if you or anyone else complains about the voter fraud, you will be accused by the Democrats of being a racist.

[onyx]

Woo-Hoo!
Oregon for Bush/Cheney!?!!!!

[bigbob]

Those Riley Research people must be polling spotted owls. But if GWB is really up 5 in Oregon, then NJ has to be within grasp!

[Mia T]

You are exactly right.

Eric Holder of don't believe your lying eyes "We didn't seize Elian at gunpoint" fame,
today again instructs us not to believe our lying eyes.

Notwithstanding the plain words in the democrat playbook urging operatives to lodge a "pre-emptive strike" of claiming voter intimidation, Holder insists that the democrats didn't urge operatives to lodge a "pre-emptive strike" of claiming voter intimidation.

[Terp]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

But check out this site. It's a left leaning Kool Aid drinking site.

[texasflower]

What is wrong with Krauthammer?

[Jorge]

What is wrong with Krauthammer?

I heard him say his condition was due to an injury on FOX the other day.