[West Coast Conservative]

Nope. Bush's 4% lead is outside the 3% margin of error.

[Cableguy]

"Bush's 4% lead is outside the 3% margin of error." This is incorrect. You need to apply MOE to both Bush and Kerry. So if MOE is 3, then Bush could be 53-47, and Kerry 49-43. In other words, Kerry could be 49, and Bush 47.

So while this is good news, don't get too excited as of yet.

[aft_lizard]

Actually you need a 7 point lead to be outside the margin of error of 3 points for example:

B 50 K 46 could be Bush 47 K 49 or somewhere in between

B 50 K 44 Could be Bush 47 K 47 or somewhere in between

So we need it to be Bush 50 Kerry 43 to be outside the margin of error of 3 percent

[jackbill]

It's plus or minus 3%.

Bush's range 53% to 47%, Kerry's range from 49% to 43%.

Could be a ten point lead for Bush or a two point lead for Kerry.

[Not gonna take it anymore]

The 3% margin means that Bush needs to be 6 points ahead to be even.

[The_Reader_David]

Ooo! a big poll with a 3% MOE. Still MOE's are really 95% confidence intervals.

Honestly, though I think this one is right on target. I think 4% is just about right: it's consistent with all the recent polls, including the 4% MOE ones showing a tie, the 4% MOE one showing Bush up by 8%, and the other 3% MOE poll which had him up 3%.