Posted on 10/17/2004 1:27:49 PM PDT by prairiebreeze
At the conclusion of the third debate, President Bush is in much better shape than the polls would suggest. This is not based on wishful thinking, outdated historical models, or a Magic Eight Ball. It is based on the clear fact that for the past two years, the major pollsters have been completely blindsided by the Republican Party's vastly enhanced turnout efforts. In 2000, the situation was reversed. Mr. Bush galloped into Election Day with a lead of four or five points in most polls. But a variety of factors knocked him down in the final days. First, the last-minute disclosure of a decades-old driving-under-the-influence charge caused many voters to question the honesty and reliability of this relatively new figure on the national scene. Karl Rove has lamented that as many as 4 million evangelical voters stayed home on Election Day that year.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party's two most powerful organizers, African-American churches and labor unions, excelled that year. Stiff white guy Al Gore got a better turnout from African-Americans in November 2000 (54.1%) than the "first black president," Bill Clinton in 1996 (50.6%). Voter turnout from union households was 26%, which showed an improvement from 23% in 1996, saving Pennsylvania and Michigan for the vice president.
Karl Rove and other high-ranking GOP strategists realized that they came within 537 votes of losing Florida and the presidency because the Democrats were running rings around them in their get-out-the-vote efforts. So they invested enormous resources of time, energy, and money in developing methods to make sure likely GOP voters were motivated to vote and got their butts to the polls.
The major pollsters, however, took the 2000 results as the new standard and assumed that Democrats would retain their turnout advantage. And they paid the price for that assumption.
(Excerpt) Read more at nysun.com ...
Do you mind giving your login out so we can read the entire article....or at least telling us what the rest of the article talks about?
I can't get it from Bugmenot.
Nevermind. I put fake info in and subscribed.
so what is the log in info?
Aw heck. I was hoping the article itself would link. I haven't posted from the Sun before. Login requires email addy.....can't post it sorry.
Prairie
...and the pollsters do not know how to estimate the massive Democratic fraud and litigation efforts currently underway. Anything within a few percentage points will be manipulated and challenged in any way possible, with manipulation reaching new levels of heinousness and far-fetchedness.
I will create a junk account you can use from mailinator or something.
He chides the pollsters for not taking turnout into account and talks about how badly off especially Zogby was in his 2000 predictions calling 29% wrong while other pollsters were at 13%. He relates how wrong the polls were about Schwartzenegger and the various EV states that look bad for sKerry.
Finishes up by a brief summary of where sKerry/Backwards have campaigned after the 3rd debate pointing out that "That's an inordinate amount of time to spend in Blue States. The only non-debate-site Red States on that list are New Hampshire and Nevada, and neither one is enough to put Mr. Kerry over the top."
The piece WOULD be even more accurate if the author had mentioned voter fraud impact possibilities as another freeper has observed. Hard to qualify for an article though.
Prairie
Folks to see the whole article, login with this:
e-mail: freerepublic@mailinator.com
password: bugmenot
It will likely only work for 4 weeks.
I don't think fraud will have a big impact due to the GOP actually appearing to be gearing up for it and ready to challenge this time around. But, perhaps I am saying that just because I really don't want to contemplate that possibility.
I agree with your former statement. And also feel sentiment with the latter, LOL.
thanks
thanks
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