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Bush Has Expectations Working On His Side; Poll: President Pulls Ahead of Kerry
ABC NEWS ^
| 10/17/04
| By GARY LANGER
Posted on 10/17/2004 7:10:33 AM PDT by tagawgrag
Edited on 10/17/2004 7:25:39 AM PDT by Admin Moderator.
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To: Drango
Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000 National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure 2000-Preliminary
|
Gore |
Bush |
Nader |
Un- decided |
Other |
Gore- Bush |
Margin Error Poll - Elect |
Candidate Error |
Election Result |
48% |
48% |
3% |
|
1% |
0% |
|
|
Zogby |
48% |
46% |
5% |
0% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
1.0% |
CBS |
45% |
44% |
4% |
5% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
0.5% |
Harris (Phone) |
47% |
47% |
5% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0.0% |
Gallup/CNN/USA Today |
46% |
48% |
4% |
0% |
2% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
Pew Research |
47% |
49% |
4% |
0% |
0% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
IBD/CSM/Tipp |
46% |
48% |
4% |
0% |
2% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
ICR/Politics Now |
44% |
46% |
7% |
1% |
2% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
NBC/WSJ |
44% |
47% |
3% |
4% |
2% |
-3% |
3% |
1.5% |
ABC/WashPost |
45% |
48% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
-3% |
3% |
1.5% |
Battleground |
45% |
50% |
4% |
0% |
1% |
-5% |
5% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
Avg. Error |
2.2% |
1.1% |
Alternative Methods |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Harris Interactive |
47% |
47% |
4% |
0% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0.0% |
Rasmussen |
49% |
40% |
4% |
|
9% |
9% |
4.5% |
|
THIRD PARTY ERROR |
|
---------------------Allocate Undecided*----------------------- |
Gore |
Bush |
Nader |
Other |
Nader Error |
|
48% |
46% |
5.0% |
1% |
2% |
100% |
47% |
46% |
4.0% |
2% |
1% |
100% |
47% |
47% |
5.0% |
1% |
2% |
100% |
46% |
48% |
4.0% |
2% |
1% |
100% |
47% |
49% |
4.0% |
0% |
1% |
100% |
46% |
48% |
4.0% |
2% |
1% |
100% |
44% |
46% |
7.0% |
2% |
4% |
100% |
46% |
49% |
3.0% |
2% |
0% |
100% |
46% |
49% |
3.0% |
1% |
0% |
100% |
45% |
50% |
|
21
posted on
10/17/2004 7:18:50 AM PDT
by
Rome2000
(The ENEMY for Kerry!!!!!)
To: tagawgrag
Good news! But it aint over until the weight challenged lady sings.
22
posted on
10/17/2004 7:19:17 AM PDT
by
Chgogal
(Houston, the Eagle is soaring and my day is made!)
To: SunkenCiv
Kerry wins Republicans (seven percent)"
That would be from the isolationist, pro-abortion, legalize-drugs wing of the party.
That would be from the DNC stooge, I got a talking point memo telling me to pretend to be a Republican, Democrat Activist wing of the party.
23
posted on
10/17/2004 7:20:12 AM PDT
by
MNJohnnie
(Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
To: Rome2000
Not real sure what the point is of repeating the 2000 numbers. How did they do in 2002?
24
posted on
10/17/2004 7:21:32 AM PDT
by
MNJohnnie
(Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
To: tagawgrag
Here's the problem the Democrats have......their voters are ant-Bush more than they are pro-Kerry. The problem with that is that a protest vote is far less likely to show up at the polls than someone who is voting "for" someone as the Bush voters are doing. Pat Cadell pointed this out repeatedly, that protest voters make a big impression on pollsters but then don't bother to vote on voting day. So add 5 points to any Bush poll number you see.
25
posted on
10/17/2004 7:22:19 AM PDT
by
Vinomori
To: tagawgrag
Women account for some of the slight movement in the race....One of Bush's lines of attack has been to portray Kerry as a liberal an effective criticism if it sticks, given the ideological makeup of likely voters ABC is missing the ELEPHANT in the living here.
Yes, Bush painting Kerry as a liberal is working to a degree, but Kerry's erosion among women(and overall) can be directly tied to two Debate moments -- Mary Cheney and the WIFE question.
All the mothers gasped whenhe went after Cheney's daughter, and all the wives screamed when he put MOM over his wife.
26
posted on
10/17/2004 7:23:10 AM PDT
by
commish
(Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
To: MNJohnnie
Thanks for the "You Rule !" On the last three days beforethe election, I will be going to either Pennsylvania or New Jersey to volunteer. It all depends on which poll is closer....
To: tagawgrag
LOL....Fox News just picked up on this...I wonder if they were looking here.
29
posted on
10/17/2004 7:24:25 AM PDT
by
SunkenCiv
("All I have seen teaches me trust the Creator for all I have not seen." -- Emerson)
To: MNJohnnie
I didn't know there was a presidential election in 2002.
30
posted on
10/17/2004 7:24:43 AM PDT
by
Rome2000
(The ENEMY for Kerry!!!!!)
To: All
To: Rokke
Methodology
This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 13-16, 2004 among a random national sample of 2,401 adults, including 2,115 registered voters and 1,582 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and "The Washington Post" are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
I am a little nervous about telephone polls...who answers their phone anymore?
32
posted on
10/17/2004 7:24:55 AM PDT
by
bitt
To: tagawgrag
To some extent national data is irrelevant (other than momentum is important). What really counts is what happens in Ohio.
33
posted on
10/17/2004 7:27:15 AM PDT
by
Drango
(NPR-When government funds a "news" outlet that has a bias...it's no longer news...it's propaganda.)
To: bitt
"...who answers their phone anymore?"
That's a good question. That is why I think the only polls worth watching are polls that don't shift their polling methodology or voter demographics from poll to poll. And even those polls are only useful to examine trends. Rasmussen is one such poll, as it the Battleground Poll. Their actual numbers may not be accurate, but the trend they reveal can at least show which candidate is gaining or losing.
34
posted on
10/17/2004 7:28:27 AM PDT
by
Rokke
To: commish
All the mothers gasped whenhe went after Cheney's daughter, and all the wives screamed when he put MOM over his wife.
I kinda felt that way. My gut reaction was what kind of loser cannot even say on National TV he loves his wife?
35
posted on
10/17/2004 7:33:13 AM PDT
by
MNJohnnie
(Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
To: TheGeezer
Watch out when you look at those averages. Where they end up has a lot to do with where they start. Notice the Bush trend starts later than the Kerry trend. But if you were to take a trend from September 15th onward the trend would be very skerry.
36
posted on
10/17/2004 7:33:38 AM PDT
by
poinq
To: commish
Yes, Bush painting Kerry as a liberal is working to a degree, but Kerry's erosion among women(and overall) can be directly tied to two Debate moments -- Mary Cheney and the WIFE question. So true!
To: SunkenCiv
George W. Bush will win reelection by a margin of at least ten per cent.
Election 2004 topics list
But the election will still be close because of the 5% Democrat Voter Fraud
38
posted on
10/17/2004 7:34:19 AM PDT
by
MNJohnnie
(Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
To: CROSSHIGHWAYMAN
Bush is fighting a WAR...
The last Presidential election after the last time the US was attacked was 1944:
![](http://media.gallup.com/ELECTION2004/electionHistory_1944_1.gif)
Any President fighting a war is going to see a lot of unhappy voters.
Roosevelt didn't have 4 broadcast networks, 3 cable networks, and all the major newspapers working against him, either!
I'm glad to see Bush up in this latest poll, though!
To: MNJohnnie
what you just said is to me the real key -- GUT REACTION!!!
That is where elections are decided, and if you look through all the posts (here and at DU), listen to all the pundits IMMEDIATELY afterward, and read all the editorials -- you will see the words "gut reaction" said over and over and over.
All the bloviating in the world by the two John's cannot undo the GUT REACTION of Wednesday night -- to quote Lynn Cheney -- "This is a BAD man!"
40
posted on
10/17/2004 7:37:07 AM PDT
by
commish
(Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
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