State by State 2004: Default View
Bush: 298 Electoral Votes (144 likely, 154 uncertain)
Kerry: 240 Electoral Votes (150 likely, 90 uncertain)
Current View: Default View
Default view bases electoral calculations on the latest available poll, regardless of whether or not the poll includes Ralph Nader, whether it samples likely voters, registered voters, or 'other' (Zogby), and regardless of the pollster who conducted the poll.
Latest Polls Added:
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| GA: | Bush +19% | (Strategic Vision 10/12 - 10/14) |
| MN: | Kerry +3% | (Strategic Vision 10/12 - 10/14) |
| MN: | Kerry +2% | (Strategic Vision 10/12 - 10/14) |
| MI: | Kerry +9% | (Strategic Vision 10/12 - 10/14) |
| MI: | Kerry +9% | (Strategic Vision 10/12 - 10/14) |
| FL: | Bush +3% | (Strategic Vision 10/12 - 10/14) |
| FL: | Bush +4% | (Strategic Vision 10/12 - 10/14) |
| OR: | Bush +5% | (Riley Research 10/09 - 10/13) |
| OH: | Bush +2% | (Rasmussen 10/07 - 10/13) |
| NJ: | TIE | (FD PublicMind 10/08 - 10/14) |
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Key
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"Likely Bush" |  |
"Uncertain Bush" |
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"Likely Kerry" |  |
"Uncertain Kerry" |
The Breakdown
About State by State 2004
When it comes to election prediction, nationwide poll numbers are misleading. As we all found out in 2000, the nationwide popular vote does not determine who will be the next President of the United States; the electoral college does.
State by State 2004 keeps a database of the latest available polling data for each state, then translates the numbers in each state into electoral votes in order to determine how the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election would turn out if it were held today.
The "latest available polling data" varies from state to state, as does each poll's methodology and margin of error. The "default view" literally uses the "latest available poll" for each state, regardless of who conduct the poll, or what the poll's methodologies are.
Those visitors who would like to narrow the polls that are used can generate a custom map and breakdown here.
In the "Breakdown" section of the page, the links in white below each state will take you to that state's individual page, where all known polls for that state are listed, along with their details.
If the latest polling data for a particular state shows the spread between Bush and Kerry to be less than the margin of error (twice the "margin of error" percentage), the state is dubbed "uncertain", and shaded a lighter shade of either blue or red.
If no polling data for a particular state is available, the state is granted based on how it voted in the 2000 Presidential Election.
Click here for more information about polling methods.
It should be noted that State by State 2004 depicts, based on state-by-state polling data, how the election would shape up if it were held today. SBS04 does not--and does not claim to--predict how the election will actually turn out in November.
If you notice any inaccuracy or out of date numbers, or have a suggestion or comment, please email me at trip@tripias.com.
Copyright ?2004 Arthur Guray. Some Rights Reserved.
