[TonyInOhio]

Crap, I screwed up the link. Try this:

The Horserace Blog

[LS]

He does better number crunching than anyone I've seen, save Dales, who does it in a different way.

[AaronInCarolina]

It boils down to this. George W. Bush has to hold Ohio.

Not true by any means! Look at the electoral map at RealClearPolitics. Bush can easily trade Ohio for the combination of Iowa and Wisconsin. The trade results in a net loss of 3 EV's, but since the electoral map changed due to re-districting, he can take the 3 EV loss and still win.