Posted on 10/14/2004 8:25:03 PM PDT by plushaye
The presidential election campaigns of Republican President George W. Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) have resolved to limit their remaining television advertisements to 14 battleground states in the three weeks leading up to the November 2 election.
Kerry has abandoned advertisements in North Carolina, the home state of his vice presidential running mate John Edwards, and Missouri, where polls indicate that Bush has a comfortable lead. Earlier this year, Kerry pulled all advertising from Arkansas, Arizona, Louisiana, and Virginia after spending millions of dollars in failed attempts to win the four traditionally Republican states.
Bush's lead in Missouri is so comfortable that he also is not advertising there. However, Kerry's lead in the state of Washington has caused Bush to no longer campaign on the air there and allocate funds elsewhere.
Bush and Kerry are allocating these advertisement funds to 14 other states. The majority of advertising has been and will be on local TV stations. Four battleground states -- Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia -- are receiving the bulk of the airwave onslaught. These states have also seen frequent visits by both parties over the last few weeks. Further visits to these states are all but assured.
Ten other states -- Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Wisconsin -- are also being hit hard with political advertisements and visits by the candidates.
Strategists for both candidates are adjusting their spending accordingly to garner the 270 electoral votes needed to claim victory. The success or failure involved at winning each one of these swing states will determine the winner in the White House sweepstakes. Some pundits consider winning or losing only the state of Ohio as the final chapter to who comes out on top.
Last week, Republican advertising totaled around $15 million, while the Democrats spent around $17 million. Spending on television and radio advertisements for both parties is expected to remain nearly the same this week.
Total spending for each side to date is approaching a staggering $300 million and does not include special interest groups such as unions, chambers of commerce, and a multitude of 527 groups.
Bush gives up on Washington (but not OR)
Kerry gives up on NC,MO,ArK,AZ,LA,VA
Main Battlegrounds: FL,OH,PA,WV Other Battlegrounds: CO,IA,ME,MI,MN,NV,NH,OR,WI
New Jersey still seems possible. Cheney, Laura Bush, Guiliani have all made recent trips there. They get play in the PA media at the same time.
Why characterize $1.00 per capita as staggering? One of the critical faultily premises of McCain Feingold was the attempt to get $ out of politics. The money that is being spent is proportional to the information being spread (good/bad, accurate/inaccurate). Let a thousand flowers bloom, I say. And to the media - wake up! There is nothing staggering about $300 million being spent on something as important as the choice of leadership.
Looks like Rove decided not to make that big California push this year.
Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia
+
Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Wisconsin
== Thirteen states
Or am I miscounting?
I'm thinking that ???? should be in there -- that would make fourteen.
Guess the author of the article goofed.
Who can name the mystery state?
I think Kerry definitely thought he had a shot in MO and AZ. These were listed as battlegrounds a few months ago. The Bush campaign thought it might have a shot in Washington state but it didn't pan out. Looks like they have a long shot in Oregon, which they are trying to play. Michigan IS listed in the article.
New Mexico. They are both still spending money in New Mexico.
Most vulnerable state (on Bush's side)
New Hampshire (5 EV)
Next most vulnerable-
OHIO (they all want OHIO what can I say!)
3rd most vulnerable
West Virginia
I think these are the only Bush states from 2000 that Kerry stands any real chance of taking. However--Bush is up in quite a few of the Gore states--so unless the electoral map shifts dramatically--sKerry is in for a really tough time. I hope he concedes early so I can enjoy watching the rest of the returns.
Yes, there's a state missing. Bet it's New Mexico!
There is absolutely no way that Bush is going to lose Colorado. The liberals are in a tizzy, but there's not enough of them.
If Bush wins FL and WI I can't see Kerry picking off a victory.
Plus the investment is good for the economy! Can't outsource local media.
Isn't Missouri considered the 'bellwether' state for any election? That's a good state to have in the bag for the President. The MSM certainly played it and AZ as if they were up for grabs, even if the Kerry campaign may not have believed it.
I am very curious about OR. Is it really in play? It's within 5 points for Bush, according to the latest ARG poll. It was fairly close in 2000 but is it really achievable?
Kerry Spot discusses part of a Washington Post article from this evening/tomorrow morning where Kerry insiders say their polls say:
- they are slightly ahead in FL and OH
- Bush is ahead in WV & stronger than expected in WI/IA due to christian voters
- they are confident in PA & MN
This is putting the best spin on things obviously, not to mention some outright lying would be involved. I don't believe they'll win in FL at all. It's going to be a Bush state. I think it will be a Bush squeaker in OH, and WI/IA will also go Bush. A WI/IA/NM combo will offset an OH loss anyway. We keep NH, WV, CO, NV too, IMHO.
Yes, the missing state from the article is probably New Mexico.
See http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041012/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_ads&cid=694&ncid=2043
'The most ads are running in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. However, 10 other states — Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, Wisconsin — also are seeing heavy advertising.'
The Swifties are going to be running TV ads in the battleground states. Read the copy - they are the most devestating charges yet.
IMHO Florida is the pivot on which this electiion will turn.
With Florida, Bush can win without OH or PA. Without Florida he has to cobble together a combination of states that are too close to call.
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