SurveyUSA on suburban voting

SurveyUSA news release | October 13, 2004 | known

[jmaroneps37]

States Ranked By Extent To Which Suburbs Are More Republican Than State As A Whole Overall Poll Results Suburban Poll Results Extent to Which Suburbs Are More Republican Than State As a Whole How to Read this Chart: In SurveyUSA's most recent election poll from the state of New York, Kerry leads Bush by 23 points, overall. A blue 23 shows up in the "Overall" column. When SurveyUSA examines just "suburban" likely voters, and excludes "urban" and "rural" likely voters, Kerry leads by 6 points. A blue 6 shows up in the "Suburbs" column. SurveyUSA then examines the extent to which the suburbs are voting more Republican than the state as a whole. In this case, 23 minus 6 = 17 points, so, 17 appears in the "Extent" column. Data in this chart is ranked by the extent to which the suburbs are voting more Republican than the state as a whole. If the suburbs in a particular state are voting more Democrat than the state as a whole, a negative number appears in the "Extent" column. On average, looking at the 30 states which SurveyUSA is actively polling, the suburbs are voting 7 pts more Republican than the states as a whole.

1 New York 23 6 17 2 Indiana 19 35 16 3 Tennessee 19 33 14 4 Illinois 16 2 14 5 South Carolina 20 33 13 6 California 8 5 13 7 Oregon 9 4 13 8 Iowa 1 11 12 9 Kansas 19 30 11 10 North Carolina 7 18 11 11 Oklahoma 30 40 10 12 Alabama 28 38 10 13 Arkansas 9 18 9 14 Michigan 10 1 9 15 Georgia 19 25 6 16 Kentucky 19 25 6 17 Washington 11 5 6 18 Texas 23 28 5 19 Pennsylvania 2 3 5 20 Ohio 1 3 4 21 Arizona 14 17 3 22 Virginia 11 14 3 23 Maine 2 0 2 24 Florida 5 6 1 25 New Jersey 5 4 1 26 Rhode Island 20 19 1 27 Maryland 15 15 0 28 Missouri 2 1 -1 29 Colorado 8 5 -3 30 Nevada 4 4 -8

Average of Republican Advantage in Suburbs 7

A blue box indicates that the Democrat, John Kerry, is ahead. A red box indicates that the Republican, George W. Bush, is ahead. A white box indicates that the two are tied. Data last updated 10/12/04

[jmaroneps37]

It's pretty clear what we have to do. If we move the suburban voters to the polls we win.

[Semper Paratus]

The keystone to Karl Rove's election strategy is to get base out to vote in surbubia/exurbian every state.

[Galtoid]

This has been true since before 2000.
If you notice Gore's states, they are located on either coast, with large metropolitan areas.
Bush's states are mainstream America, dotted with smaller sized towns.
Illinois is one exception. Chicago's dead helped Gore win.
I have to say that Dallas is the only majoy city that will be Bush's to claim.

[rushmom]

I heard yesterday that it was only an eight point race in New York. Eight...twenty three...somebody's off.

[zebrahead]

Ohio's suburbs are more than +3 for Bush IMO. I find it hard to believe that NE Ohio can make up for the fact that the suburbs of Cincinnati, Columbus, Dayton, and Toledo are all solid Republican territories.

[LS]

Phoenix. San Diego. Salt Lake City. El Paso. Cincinnati. I think these are all pretty close to Dallas in pop.