It is a big IF indeed, but if it gets legs this will hurt him more than 5 to 10 percent. I think he would lose even Mass. It's not only about having a bad discharge while claiming he is some kind of war hero, it's about the coverup and having a Commander in Chief who had a bad discharge.
Never happen. Massachusetts voters are still proud that they didn't vote for Nixon, they'd vote for Kerry just to spite Bush, who is hated, hated, hated here.
I've been thinking about this story for almost an hour now, and I think the media will try to keep it quite because you're right, it would be DEVASTATING. Because it's not about just another issue that's been chewed over ala Bush's Guard service.
The 2000 DUI story was something that hurt, BUT it did'nt hurt as much as it might have because it was not part of a pattern--Bush did something he was ashamed of and he tried to keep it quiet, as many people would.
But this is like the last link in a chain the Swift Vets have been building for a long time.
I don't think the story has legs. But it will get around on the net. Without it being a major national story, though, I don't see much happening with it.
But it has the potential. And the reason is Kerry's own pushing of his record in Vietnam.
I suspect the same could be same of BC41.