Raising the alert level without more specific information would help AQ more than it would help us.
The feds have been warning for many months about election-related threats, certain areas (NYC, NJ, DC named and others possibly unnamed) were put on selective orange in August, bulletins on specific issues have been going out weekly to something like 25,000 state and local law enforcement agencies and first responders, and the tapes themselves have forced up the general awareness level of the overall population.
AQ (and perhaps an accomplice or two) is trying to insert itself into our election process. They achieve more PR with each additional minute of the tapes aired (more juicy threats and quotes). Therefore, the effort to suppress as much of it as possible. Don't think of it as a First Amendment issue, but an attempt to quarantine an enemy disinformation/deception/destabilization effort (enemy psyops).
Putting us on orange (the rest of the nation not already quietly there either de facto or de jure) buys us only marginal increased security at the cost of handing AQ at least a partial victory (succeeding in altering the national election environment 72 hours out by making the "October Surprise" the sudden elevation of AQ and its issues as the central and final issue in a 50-50 national election.)
The cost does not outweigh the benefit.
If more specific information is generated, then the benefit of rattling the entire nation's cage on the eve of the election by going to orange and setting off a firestorm of debate over which side is politicizing the issue *might* outweigh the cost if the information that can be disseminated is of enough value.
Otherwise, the folks that need to know about the threat already know and don't need to be reminded, and the average John and Jane Doe already have threat fatigue and stopped paying attention to the color codes long ago and have made them a national joke (are we at "Elmo", "Ernie" or "Bert"?) . You would have to disseminate specific information with the elevation to orange (like the info on NYC/NJ/DC financial targets in August with the selective elevation) for it to be to be taken seriously and therefore for it to be effective.
Without that specific information, going to orange will only advance the strategic objectives of al Qaeda while adding little to overall security.
This is so darn true that it's not even funny. I was at a birthday party this morning and not one of the adults knew an OBL video was even released. Sad. I sometimes wish I could bury my head in the sand too.
Our LEO's are on the job. Let's pray they can stop whatever is coming.
Joe,
You make some very good points, and I don't disagree.
However ... I think many folks are uneasy about the election and possible events surrounding it. Having the two tapes come out pretty much confirms it. If we're not already on alert, we danged well better be.
Something might happen, something might not happen. Al Quada likes to "talk big" ... one or another wanna be jihadist warns us about every two or three days that the streets are going to run with blood ... I'm aware of this.
There are just too many dots, in my mind, that fit together. One might say there's no specific information this time ... but, heck! There's a WEALTH of specific information put out pubically in the past, alot of it in mainstream media as well as places like this forum.
It is not wrong to ask the American public to be a little extra aware. As a matter of fact ... it's respectful to the average person, to let them know there is an inreased risk and to trust them to be extra aware.
I'd go so far as to say that the best protection we've got going is the vigilance of the average American.
Is it political? Well, only in the eyes of the Klinton/Kerry spin machine.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/004/856mpsdl.asp?pg=1
Call me naieve, but I honestly don't think Karl Rove talks to Bin Laden.
If something happens, Bush is toast if we're not on Orange alert. If NOTHING happens, the Bush administration has egg on its collective face. So what?
If Kerry had any sense, he'd CALL for the country to be on orange alert, which would cover ALL bases politically for Kerry.
BTW, I am probably the only person in the US that really LIKES the color coded system. I LOVE the color coded system. I used something similar for college notes, for prioritizing lists of things to do, and in my kitchen!!! It gives you alot of information at one glance.
I also have a collection of tin foil caps in my closet! I'm not real sure that Vince Foster really suicided, but I am pretty sure that both the price of gas and the value of the US dollar are being manipulated by speculators and off shore hedge funds, at least one of which is being run by George Soros.
Tin foil caps are very fetching when you coordinate them with patent leather pumps and a tiny metallic bag! Slap on a little irridescenct pink lipstick, and top it off with the glittered blush!
Sorry! Didn't mean to ramble, but that's what happens after gulping two cups of coffee before posting!