Replies

The original threats back in the summer and then again in late 2003 about a tape followed or preceeded by a UBL appearance were either prevented by authorities, postponed by al qaeda or the threats were all mere al qaeda psychops. (The latter is possible since it was last summer when messages about al qaeda's deliberate psychops began appearing. AND there were also posts about "hunters" infiltrating the Arabic forums; the jihadi types began to watch others watch them and they played to their audience.)

Turning back to the video/UBL tie-in, there were communications from the Jihad Falcon, daleel and another known jihad group in overseas newspapers and on yahoo and other forums about such a threat and a UBL appearance. Here is just one; I will look for more when I can.

From the http://www.itshappening.com IH archives:

THREAT & CLAIM MONITOR (TCM)
ID #2003-12-002
TCM Issue Date: 31 Dec. 2003
Group: al-Qaeda
Source: al-Majallah, Dubai, Mahmud Khalil, 28 Dec. 2003

On or before 26 Dec. 2003, al-Qaeda member Abu Mohammed al-Ablaj sent an email to al-Majallah saying "an emissary of bin Laden has informed me that the al-Qaeda chief's (next) appearance (on video cassette) will come after a deadly, far-reaching operation on American territory. In the video, bin Laden will evoke the success of his backers in once again striking the United States to the core and America's failure (in its anti-terrorist campaign) both outside and inside the country." Al-Ablaj also said, "I was talking with the brothers around the sheikh [Osama bin Ladin] and they asked me to confirm that the strike would be between the two Eids, that it would break the back, and would upset the balances. Let them prepare from now for more sorrows and let them prepare the coffins and the largest number of hospitals and graves. The coming days are full of surprises and major events that will make them an historic example. We will teach them the painful lessons that they will never forget." He also said, "Dear brother. The days are coming nearer day after day and what is coming is more drastic and more harmful. This is what I can say now and I will provide an opportunity for conducting an expanded and detailed dialogue with one of the operation's leaders after the implementation." According to al-Majallah, al-Ablaj hinted that the attack would consist of several qualitative and simultaneous strikes inside US territories and other countries he did not name. He said: "We will set them off soon."

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Thanks.

Sometimes it is like trying to navigate a maze of mirrors trying to discern what to actually take seriously and what to dismiss. Even more challenging is that effective disinformation has to have large elements of truth to be credible.

IIRC, 12/26/03 was the week where national authorities were deeply concerned over WMD smuggled onto planes originating overseas and being detonated over or near a city.

The timing of the (12/26/03) Ablaj threat is very interesting as it ties in with the original NYC/LA/DC pre-Ramadan threats and may be linked to the holiday flight cancellations.

This "operational phase" never ended. It has been repeatedly disrupted or delayed. It is what is culminating IMHO.

The repetition of the December 2003 sequence of events with regard to UBL signals corroborates other recent evidence that they are seeking to repeat the same method of attack.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&contentId=A30985-2003Dec25&notFound=true

Suspicious Passengers Questioned In France

13 Were to Fly to L.A., Have Been Released

By John Mintz and John Burgess
Washington Post Staff Writers

(snipped)

Friday, December 26, 2003; Page A01

U.S. government officials said yesterday they believe some of the passengers boarding one of the three Air France flights from Paris to Los Angeles that were canceled this week because of security concerns might have intended to hijack it and crash-land in Las Vegas or another city along its flight path.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&contentId=A2065-2004Jan31&notFound=true

Flights Cut on Fear Of Al Qaeda Attacks

By Sara Kehaulani Goo and Dana Priest
Washington Post Staff Writers

Sunday, February 1, 2004; Page A01

(snipped)

Intelligence indicating that al Qaeda terrorists are seeking to release a chemical or biological agent aboard an airliner, or transport a radiological device in cargo, was one of the factors that prompted the cancellation of six international flights scheduled for today and tomorrow, senior administration officials familiar with the reports said yesterday. The intelligence on a weapon of mass destruction remains vague, and officials remain concerned about hijackings and other methods. The use of such weapons would be a new tactic.

All the canceled flights are overseas flights arriving in the United States, as were the flights by foreign carriers canceled around Christmas. But yesterday, for the first time, a flight by a U.S.-based carrier was canceled. Continental Airlines Flight 17, scheduled to fly today from Glasgow, Scotland, to Los Angeles with a stop in Newark, was canceled because the carrier was "unable to obtain the necessary security clearances from the Department of Homeland Security and their international counterparts," a Continental spokesman said.