This will be my last summary for about two weeks. I’ll be having to work out of town and away from my computers. As we get closer to the elections, the threat will continue to grow. We need to continually be alert to our surroundings and connecting the dots on TM. Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.
Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
10/14/04 Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C No Change since 8/1/04
1. Attack threat windows
10/14/04 Primary Window: We are now 19 days away from election day and if AQ is intending to attack before Nov 2, their window of opportunity is rapidly closing. However, all indicators are that they still have the intent and desire to do so.
10/14/04 The American Computer Scientists Assoc (ACSA) Oct 12th prediction has not panned out..
10/14/04 The impact of Ramadan (October 15/16 - Nov 12) upon terrorist operations is open to debate. Last year, though threatened, nothing significant took place. However, because of the importance of this years election and the losses terrorism have been dealt the past year, may push them to rationalize that jihad is the best way to express their devotions during Ramadan.
(10/14/04) Secondary window: This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005. I would consider this period a high risk for potential assassination attempts on the new administration, especially if Bush wins reelection.
2. Attack Indicators
10/14/04 There is still anticipation of an OBL video/audio tape to soon appear. But then we've been anticipating this for over a month now. However, there is some speculation that it may come out AFTER the attack in order to allow him to gloat.
There have also been some that indicated that internet jihadi chatter has reached a low ebb, suggesting that operational phases are in progress. However, at this low ebb, our favorite little piglet, EOM and a few others have reared their little heads to spout more threats.
3. Current Terrorist Operations
General International
10/13/04 Godzilla note: I found the following article fascinating, particularly the exerpt posted below as it points out two key things.
1. States that sponsor terror can no longer hide behind their ‘stateless’ terrorist surrogates and avoid direct attack. Afghanistan and Iraq have served warning to Iran and Syria that they are no longer immune to retribution.
2. The absence of AQ lead in the planning and discussions. It appears that Iran and Syria are the lead players, unless the reference to Islamabad refers to AQ reps.
Although it is not clear when these meeting took place, the US has not reacted as in the past and it has the terrorists off balance to a degree.
Global Information System, Jason Fuchs
A variety of sources have confirmed that the Iranian and Syrian governments, plus major Islamist groups, are continuing to debate whether to proceed with a major new terrorist attack in the West, and specifically the US, before the US elections on November 2, 2004.
GIS sources reported that the Islamist movement was engaged in intense strategic discussions about a new “spectacular” offensive against Western, specifically US targets. Critically, GIS sources added that these discussions involved the Islamist-jihadist movement’s chief state sponsors, including Iran and Syria. On the question of the proposed forthcoming Islamist offensive, GIS sources detailed: “[Government officials in] Damascus and Tehran, and [Islamist leaders in] Islamabad are in on the debate and are having major input.”
This internal debate, although couched in theological terms, was described by GIS sources as “extremely pragmatic”. The debate appeared to be attempting to discern the probable reaction by the US electorate to a pre-election strike, as well as what Washington’s response could be, and the degree to which such a strike would threaten the security of the sponsoring states. It also attempted to discern the anticipated reaction from the Muslim world to the extreme violence and bloodshed being proposed. As a routine, tactical matter, the preparedness and durability of the operational and support cells necessary to facilitate such a strike were also under review, although it appeared as though the debate focused much less on capability — about which many in the Islamist-jihadist community seemed to exude an air of confidence — but the review also considered the strategic ramifications of a new mass-casualty “spectacular”.
http://www.strategicstudies.org/1
Iraq
10/14/04 The military is expecting an increase in terror attacks prior to Ramadan. Iraq's interim leader Iyad Allawi has threatened an assault on Falluja if residents do not turn in Jordanian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Zarqawi, Iraq's most wanted man who is responsible for many of the terror attacks and beheadings that have occurred in the country.
Italy
10/14/04 Nothing significant to report.
Afghanistan
10/14/04 This is worth repeating again. Taliban insurgents apparently stood by silently as Afghanistan held its first presidential election in history. The failure of the Taliban and AQ to stop the election is an clear blow to terrorism in Afganistan and will make it even harder to sway the Afgans away from the path to democracy now that they have tasted it. Assassination attempts are still a great concern.
Pakistan
10/14/04 There have been increased concerns once again about Pakistani nuclear secrets and / or weapons getting into terrorist hands.
India
10/13/04 According to sources inside the Indian Government, the capital city is getting ready for a massive nuclear terrorism in New Delhi.
Also sources tell us that from Iraq a lot of nuke making equipments and supplies have been stolen by Al-Qudea. Nuke engineers of Pakistan are ready to provide the brain and knowledge to put together the nuke bomb. Delhi may be a testing ground for Al-Queda.
http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/10-12c-04.asp
Israel
10/13/04 The head of the Hamas military wing in the West Bank city of Hebron, Imad Kawasme, surrendered to the Israel Defense Forces on Wednesday morning when troops surrounded his safe house in an arrest raid. The surrender of a member of the Hamas military wing, Iz a Din al-Kassam, is quite a rare occurrence, as the organization's militants in Hebron and Nablus have in the past two years preferred a fight to the death.
10/12/04 Hamas has been discussing with Iran the launch of a major attack against an Israeli or Jewish installation outside of the Middle East.
Western intelligence sources said Hamas has sought Iran's help in financing and planning a major strike on an Israeli embassy or Jewish facility that would deter Israel from attacking the leadership of the Islamic insurgency group. The sources said Hamas has urged Teheran to provide the same support granted for the mass casualty strikes against Israeli and Jewish targets in Buenos Aires in the early 1990s in which 114 people were killed.
"Hamas does not have the depth for any major attack on an Israeli installation outside of the Middle East," an intelligence source said. "For this, it needs an ally such as Iran, with experience in and capabilities for such attacks."
Godzilla comment: Although not confirmed, Hamas has made its life solely going after Israel operating in countries adjacent to it. It has not made big efforts out of the regions with the exception noted, therefore does not have the infrastructure or the resources to maintain efforts outside of the ME. Secondly, it appears that Israel’s focused attacks against Hamas leadership is paying off and Hamas is hurting.
Iran
10/14/04 Iran continues in its race to develop a nuclear bomb.
Russia
10/14/04 As 40 days of mourning end Wednesday, relatives of the hundreds of people killed in the Beslan school massacre are debating whether to seek revenge. This could result in widespread ethnic violence in the regions.
England
10/14/04 PM Tony Blair makes no apologies over Iraq.
Syria
10/14/04 Nothing new to report.
Egypt
10/13/04 Cairo daily Al Ahram confirms all 4 Sinai bomber bombers escaped minutes after explosions that killed 32 people, including 12 Israelis, at resorts frequented by Israelis last week. That includes Taba Hilton. The explosives were alledgely hidden under vegetable crates. All vehicles came from Egypt, one from Greater Cairo. Attacks bore Al Qaeda hallmarks similar to Istanbul HSBC bank bombing last November and Jakarta Marriott hotel attack in August 2003 Egyptian sources tell DEBKAfile that the Istanbul bombings last year demonstrated that al Qaeda and its offshoots invest too heavily in the creation of surrogate local networks to use them only once. They immediately followed up their strikes against the Jewish synagogues with a second wave against the British consulate and banks. On the cards, therefore, is a follow-up of deadly suicidal violence in Egypt, Israel or again in Sinai, which may be already in the works.
Godzilla note: Although this is from DEBKA, it makes a valid observation that could be signaling a modification in AQ attack MO. Namely, the suicide bomber is on the way out. This might have been fine when operations were going at a slower tempo and the AQ hierarchy was intact, but now a reality sets in that they can’t just blow up the people that they’ve put so much time and money into training. Secondly, since the bombers now have to escape, this could develop into a weakness that could identify potential attacks and stop them.
Saudi Arabia
10/12/04 Three terrorists shot in gun battle with Saudi security forces who stormed their hideout in eastern Riyadh. The fourth Abdulmajeed Mohammed al-Manea, on a list of 26 most wanted militants in Saudi Arabia was arrested.
10/12/04 Saudi authorities have intercepted at least 100,000 infiltrators from Iraq and Jordan during 2004, Saudi security sources said. The insurgents included a range of North African nationals. The security sources said the effort was meant to prevent insurgents from crossing the borders with Iraq and Yemen.
N. Korea
10/12/04 The United States has accused North Korea of miscalculation by refusing to resume talks on its nuclear programs before the U.S. presidential election while China renewed a diplomatic drive to end the stalemate. Analysts say Pyongyang is stalling to see who wins the U.S. presidential election on November 2 because it believes the Democratic contender, Senator John Kerry, will be easier to deal with than President George W. Bush.
China / N. Korea
10/11/04 China has reportedly deployed between 50,000 - 150, 000 troops along its border with N. Korea. Reasons range from trying to stop starved N. Koreans from fleeing the country, to stopping rogue N. Korean military hunting for food, to being deployed as a deterrent to the development of a N. Korean nuke.
S. Korea
10/12/04 This could be a reiteration of a threat that has already been posted in an earlier summary. "A terrorist organization claiming to be affiliated with al-Qaida has warned of attacks on South Korea and its troops in Iraq unless the troops are withdrawn within two weeks, a Foreign Affairs-Trade Ministry official said Tuesday.
The warning message from the ``Martyr Hammound al-Masri battalion,'' datelined Sept. 30, was posted on an Arab-language Web site on Oct. 10, spokesman Lee Kyu-hyung said at a news conference at the ministry."
http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200410/kt2004101215551210230.htm
Indonesia
10/14/04 Nothing new to report.
Central America
10/14/04 Nothing new to report.
France
10/14/04 Nothing new to report.
United States
10/13/04 Bill Gertz has reported that U.S. security officials are investigating a recent intelligence report that a group of 25 Chechen terrorists illegally entered the United States from Mexico in July.
Experts say there are several links between al Qaeda and Chechen terrorists, including that between the late Chechen warlord Khattab and Osama bin Laden. Both fought the 1979-89 Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.
Members of the group, said to be wearing backpacks, secretly traveled to northern Mexico and crossed into a mountainous part of Arizona that is difficult for U.S. border security agents to monitor, said officials speaking on the condition of anonymity.
The intelligence report was supplied to the U.S. government in late August or early September and was based on information from an intelligence source that has been proved reliable in other instances, one official said.
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20041013-121643-5028r.htm
Godzilla note: Earlier this summer it was reported that AQ was seeking more ‘western looking’ terrorists to penetrate into the US. The July timeframe also corresponds to a period when the DHS attention was finally diverted to the potential for infiltration via the border with Mexico.
10/12/04 Sen. Mark Dayton said Tuesday he is closing his Washington office because of a classified intelligence report which made him fear for the safety of his staff. Dayton said he could not describe the contents of the top-secret intelligence report, which was presented to senators at a briefing two weeks ago. Asked what advise he would have for Minnesotans who want to travel to Washington over the next few weeks, Dayton said, ``I wouldn't advise them to come to Capitol Hill. I would not bring my two sons to the capitol between now and the election.''
http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/5028933.html
10/12/04 A major highway connecting Philadelphia with its western suburbs was shut down in both directions for several hours Monday night because of the discovery of a metal box attached to a Peco Energy Co. electric transmission tower had the letters "ELF" on the front. The initials stand for the radical environmental organization Earth Liberation Front.
"The FBI got involved because this organization has used violence in the past in order to promote their mission," FBI spokeswoman Jerri Williams said. "That is why we took action, and that is why we were so cautious."
http://kyw.com/news/local_story_285233829.html
10/12/04 The FBI will interview Muslims in Pennsylvania because the agency has received information about possible terrorist attacks before the Nov. 2 election, Islamic community groups said Monday. FBI agents have been conducting similar interviews nationwide.
http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/news/101104-fbiinterview.html
4. Attack method.
10/14/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. Stolen fuel / propane trucks seem to be high on LEA's radar. Hijacked airlines are still on AQ's hit parade too. However, there may be a change in the MO with the bombers trying to make an escape once they’ve placed the explosives in place.
5. Personnel
10/13/04 A jury convicted Soliman Biheiri, 53, an Egyptian national who ran the BMI Inc. bank, of making false statements to federal investigators by denying a business relationship with Mousa Abu Marzook, the political leader of Hamas.
10/11/04 Information concerning the long rumored AQ navy by author Robert Miniter of "SHADOW WAR" extracted from a transcript of an interview by Brit Hume.
MINITER:….. One example, the Al Qaeda admiral, his name is Abd Rahim al Nashiri. He commanded a fleet of up to 15 cargo ships that were used to transport bombs or terrorists. We captured him in a place called Umm Qasr, one of the United Emirates last year. He's now talking.
And we dismantled an entire operation to make attacks on the United States and Americans abroad by sea. We defeated attempts to blow up warships in the Straits of Gibraltar. We defeated attempts to blow up oil tankers in the Straits of Malacca, and so on. And that's just one set of attacks that we've prevented.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,134512,00.html
6. Significant meetings canceled:
10/14/04 No new cancellations.
7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
10/14/04 No significant change since 8/11/04. NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE and DHS continues to review the threat towards these potential targets daily. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York. I don't look for any change in the status of these locations until after the inauguration at the earliest.
GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.
8. Military operations.
10/14/04 3 carrier groups deployed (CV-67 Kennedy , CV-63 Kitty Hawk , CVN-74 Stennis ), 1 is on standby and preparing for October deployment (Abraham Lincoln), 3 are post deployment and 5 under going maintenance.
10/14/04 F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.
9. Dept of Homeland Scty. / State Department
10/14/04 There's a new terror warning from the Federal Bureau of Investigation about how fake bomb threats could be the new training ground for terrorists. watching how authorities responded to the threat. The concern is that they are watching our response and doing surveillance on how LEOs respond to these kind of calls.
10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
10/13/04 Eleven communication towers in Harris County, Texas were broken into and vandalized over the past few weeks. The culprits also targeted four towers in Montgomery County this past weekend. "It seems pretty much every time they go in there they unplug something and they start damaging them until the lights go off and flickering," said Sgt. Jeffrey Stauber with the Harris County Sheriff's Department. "They know they caused enough damage and then they leave" The FBI has also been brought in to the investigation.
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/news/101304_local_celltowers.html
10/13/04 A pair of electrical worker's gloves with the initials "B.G." and a metal punch have been found near where two electrical towers fell near Milwaukee Saturday. Police have not ruled out terrorism in the incident that dropped electrical wires on railroad tracks used by Amtrak and Canadian Pacific trains.
http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20041013-104253-8289r.htm
10/12/04 Authorities say they believe two high-voltage transmission towers that knocked out power to 17,000 customers were knocked over as the result of an intentional act. The investigation, which includes the Joint Terrorism Task Force and the FBI, was continuing today. Bauer said bolts were removed from a plate that connects the legs at the base of the 80-foot towers, he said.
FBI Special Agent Jeffrey Troy said his agency has issued a general warning to other municipalities to be on the lookout for tampering with infrastructure. He said FBI offices nationwide were alerted.
http://www.wisinfo.com/postcrescent/news/archive/local_18174435.shtml
Godzilla note. Earlier this summer similar tampering with the nuts and bolts of steel transmission powerlines was reported in several location in northern CA. An individual was spotted, however he got away from the police. Some have suggested that this is a loner or possibly activity by the Earth Liberation Front (ELF). The ELF has disrupted power lines in the past.
Thanks for the summary ... and have a good two weeks away from your computer!
Thanks for the ping. Hope your two weeks is relaxing and I look forward to future updates.
As always, great job. You keep TM on track and bring out the most important points that need to be realized. Thanks again for your hard work!
Thank you, Godzilla.
Be well. You'll be missed.
Take your time going, but hurry back!
'zillia,
Thanks for that AWESOME summary! Will miss you while you're away. Please stay safe.
Two weeks!!!! Thank you, as always, Godzilla for your summaries....and be safe in your travels.
In regards to your note on the California High Voltage Line Tower sabotage. The individual was reportedly apprehended in Sacramento at the end of October 2003. The acts of saotage occured in September and October of 2003 in Oregon and California.
Micheal Devlyn Poulin, 62 of Spokane,Wa has a criminal past (convicted to life imprisonment for murder in the early 1970's, but only served 8 years prior to being paroled)and stated is act was intended to highlight the nations lack of power infrastructure security.
Above ad-libed from article below
http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?id=1&display=rednews/2003/11/03/build/nation/80-sabotage.inc
I thought I read that he was also tied to one of the Northwest EcoTerror groups (of which we have more than our fairshare of up here) - still trying to find that article.
In regards to the story of China amassing troops along the North Korean border.
I have only seen a couple of stories that were published as news articles overseas that were dated September 2003. No one has been able to reference any thing current, nor have I found anything that could be independently corraborated. Which begs the questions: Were they false reports? or Why did the Beijing back down?
If you have some additional news stories that can place this in a current time frame, could you please post it. This would be of a very significant nature, in regards to security on the Korean Peninsula.
Not withstanding that I live less than 5 miles from McChord AFB and Ft. Lewis and it seems our nutjobs in pongyongpingpong have a missile capable of reaching here.
Oh yeah, conveniently you'll be gone and we will have to wonder what's going on for TWO WHOLE WEEKS! You do your job here so well Godzilla that we have come to depend on you! Hope your travel is safe and we look forward to your return.