Cell phone users not counted in polls (are cell phone users for Kerry?)

The Dominion Post ^ | 10/12/2004 | AP

[the_devils_advocate_666]

CHARLESTON (AP) -- About 1,200 Marshall University students are among more than 2.7 million young Americans who have been silenced by political polls because they use only cell phones.

Pollsters can be fined $500 if they violate a Federal Communications Commission rule against calling wireless phones because the phones' owners must pay for every call received.

That means the 6 percent of Americans and 14 percent of young Americans who have no landline phone never show up in political polls, according to a July estimate by the Yankee Group, the consultant whose estimates the FCC uses in its annual reports on wireless usage. That's more than the entire margin of error for most major polls.

Marshall University started pulling the telephone plugs in eight of its dorms in March and is not the only college to do so. Campuses from Morrisville State and Mount Saint Mary colleges in New York to American University in Washington, D.C., have gone wireless.

By next fall, Marshall's Twin Towers will go wireless and the transition away from landlines will be complete for all 2,000-plus students living on campus.

Dave Spencer went wireless-only long before the rest of the campus did. The 28-year-old Marshall senior abandoned his landline five years ago. So have many of his friends.

''I can think of at least seven off the top of my head'' who don't have traditional phones, he said. Spencer didn't know pollsters couldn't call him. Neither did Corey Strimer, a graduate student at WVU.

Because it's difficult to poll them, nobody knows who cell phone users support for president. In late February, Rock the Vote asked only wireless phone users whom they would vote for in November. Twenty-nine percent said President Bush, and 55 percent said whomever the Democrats ran. But those responders called the pollster themselves, which is not a scientific random sample.

[the_devils_advocate_666]

I think they are trying to say that the cell phone only types are all a bunch of democrat college students who are going to be voting for Kerry... but I could be wrong.

[The Old Hoosier]

This cell-only user is voting for Bush.

[Trampled by Lambs]

I will not be voting for Mr. sKerry and neither will my cell phone.

[Dyvim]

I agree, but the question is: will they vote? I read somewhere (can't find it now) about how Gallup and the like think about cell phone only people, and I think they had some figures that made them statistically insignificant to the sample, but I could be wrong.

[Guillermo]

The 28-year-old Marshall senior

Either this guy started late, or he is a loser.

[Happygal]

Spencer didn't know pollsters couldn't call him. Neither did Corey Strimer, a graduate student at WVU.

''Woah dude, someone's sayin' there's an election? Woah Who knew?!'

[KJacob]

Look even if these cell phone users instead had a regular phone and sat at home every night, it is doubtful that they would ever be called by a pollster. Pollsters take the information from those they talk to and try to project it to the entire population. So now cell phone users are part of the projection rather than the sample. I do not see how this effects the results a great deal.

[zkbeta51]

Dido!

[xm177e2]

Because it's difficult to poll them, nobody knows who cell phone users support for president. In late February, Rock the Vote asked only wireless phone users whom they would vote for in November. Twenty-nine percent said President Bush, and 55 percent said whomever the Democrats ran. But those responders called the pollster themselves, which is not a scientific random sample.

If it's not scientific, why relate the results? If news organizations stopped reporting the results of unscientific polls, the world would be a better place.

[MeanWestTexan]

I would think that cell-only people would be: (1) urban; (2) North Eastern Seaboard; and (3) more likely to live in temporary housing (e.g., 1 year apartment) or somesuch.

These areas will (largely) already vote for Kerry, so I don't see much electoral-college effect.

[RockinRight]

I have a cell only-no land line. I am of course voting for Bush and a GOP ticket the whole way down.

[NeoCaveman]

I'm cell phone only and voting for Bush.

[Casaubon]

good...last thing i want is a friggen poll working calling me on my cell.
much less telemarketers...I got 1 telemarket call on my cell...I blew up i was so mad.
I called my cell company and told em i didnt want those "new services" text msg's either.

we are so over marketed.

[twigs]

I can't imagine that they are statistically insignificant. The internet smear campaign about the draft has motivated this group to vote. For Kerry. Not all of them will, of course, but this is a big concern of mine.

[js1138]

I know some young, cell phone only people, and they probably will not vote.

[BJtheJob]

I use only a cell phone and had a poller call me on October 1st. I believe they said they were with ATT (I use Sprint) so I'm not sure how they got my number. Anyway, I told them I'm voting for Bush.

[Judith Anne]

Or, he was in the military, and is now going to school.

Or, he is paying his way through by working.

Or, he was an immature kid at 18, had to be out in the real world for a while before appreciating a college education.

[Sal]

...Rock the Vote asked only wireless phone users whom they would vote for in November. Twenty-nine percent said President Bush, and 55 percent said whomever the Democrats ran. But those responders called the pollster themselves, which is not a scientific random sample.

Not only were they self-selected, they were self-selected from Rock the Vote watchers. I would have expected a lot less than 29% Bush votes from that crew.

[Judith Anne]

I'd be a cell only person if there was tower coverage in my rural area.

[Guillermo]

Yes, all the above would be an example of "starting late."