POLL-Kerry Opens Three-Point Lead on Bush

Reuters ^ | 10-11-2004 | John Whitesides

[BlazenGold]

The Electoral College polls have given President Bush the edge from the beginning. Bush 297 Kerry 236 The race isn't over. Get out the vote!

[DarthVader]

That is completely true. His interactive polling isn't so great. If he was correct we should have Gov. Bill McBride in Fla, a dem majority in the Senate, and 6-8 dem pick ups in the House. Not one! NOT ONE! of this slimy Arabist's predictions and studies held water. Zogby's reputation is greatly been overblown because of the telephone poll he took after Bush's DUI revelation in the 2000 election. I think Zogby's numbers have been skewed by the DNC just like the online polls taken after the debates. My view on these results is highly skeptical since it is an outlier from the other firms Gallup, Wash Post, ABC etc. which show 4-6% Bush lead. Look for Bush lead to grow as post 2nd debate results come in.

[BlazenGold]

That is a lie. There was no hidden mic. The question is: Did Kerry use his cheat sheets? This hypocritical one sided stuff needs to end and people supporting this should be ashamed.

[Politicalities]

Come Nov 2nd we'll see who is deluded.

Indeed we will.

As I said, I hope you're right, and I think Bush will win. But 400 electoral votes? C'mon. Which of the following states do you think Bush will win: California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Vermont, DC? Because if Kerry wins all of them, which seems all-but-certain to me, Bush will win fewer than 400 electoral votes.

The odds on Bush getting 400 electoral votes or more are running 19:1 against at Tradesports. If you really believe what you're saying, you have the opportunity to make some serious money.

[AxelPaulsenJr]

Agreed. I was told this story this morning that there are pics of W's back showing a bulge. I take it that it has been successfully debunked.

Good!

[Eva]

Be afraid, very afraid, because I have always said that Zogby calculates the voter fraud into his numbers.

[rcofdayton]

I am scared. Zogby has been right too many times. It is clear that Bush's lead has drastically lessened. The American People have lost their minds. If Kerry does win, conservatives should become peaceniks. Let down our military and intelligence guard. Whenever the terrorists strike, we should urge caution and negotiation. After a couple of million deaths, Americans might wake up. If not, they should suffer the consequences of voting for Kerry.

[sarasota]

We're all a bit "scared", but not just because of Zogby. The entire mainstream media pimping for liberals is the problem. Re-electing W is the solution. Get out the vote!

[DarthVader]

Zogby right too many times! Review his stellar 2002 results 0-3!!

[linn37]

Odd a three point difference is a lead and not a tie...let me nuance that.

[t-1000]

There is a completely different demographic to the folks who seek out a poll versus one's where the poll seeks them.

No doubt. This poll is a useless exercise of numbers.

In order to take the poll a number of things must happen.

1. You must have access to a computer.
2. You must have internet access
3. You must know how to use the internet.
4. You must somehow wind-up at Zogby's website.
5. You must then want to take the poll.

I will bet you that people who do all 5 are hold a very similar demographics.

[DarthVader]

Go to Real Clear Politics and see how they have all the polls averaged. Bush leads in most of them. I think Zogby's results are DNC Sy-ops.

[deport]

I am scared. Zogby has been right too many times.

---

Get scared if this is his election eve final poll.... His final prediction is where he attempts to get the accuracy correct.... Until then who knows what he is doing.... He can make the numbers change and say anything he wants by the way he weights the poll data each time.....

Secondly, this is the first Presidential election after 911... So old models they are using for turn out and demographics may not be even close......

[tx_eggman]

Agreed. I was told this story this morning that there are pics of W's back showing a bulge. I take it that it has been successfully debunked.

Scrappleface said the bulge wasn't recognized by the dims because it was something they are unfamiliar with ... a spine

[jla]

Illinois.
And although he doesn't need it to reach 400, I'm not counting out California or NY.
This election will not be close at all. A lot of folks, and this includes some Conservatives, erroneously discount the preponderance of the Christian Right. They will be going to vote on Nov 2, and they will be going in big numbers.
And they reside in states outside of Dixie too.

Then there's the Democrats (not to be confused with 'liberals') who are fed up with their Party's sharp leftward turn, (see popular vote for Clinton). These folks are akin to the 'Reagan-Democrats' of the 80s.
They too, live in every state of the union.
I am hearing people here in Virginia, who previously were apathetic at best about politics and/or voting, tell me positive things about Dubya. I'm hearing people who haven't bothered to vote for a while getting registered so they can give our President their nod of approval on 11-2.

I honestly don't think I'm being overconfident, nor am I deluded.
Dubya will see 400 Electoral College votes.