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POLL-Kerry Opens Three-Point Lead on Bush
www.reuters.com ^ | Mon Oct 11, 2004 | John Whitesides

Posted on 10/11/2004 4:28:15 AM PDT by foolscap

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic challenger John Kerry expanded his slight lead over President Bush to three points in a tight race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Monday.

The Massachusetts senator held a 47-44 percent lead over Bush in the latest three-day tracking poll, up two points from Sunday. Bush's support dropped one point and Kerry's support rose one point in the new poll.

The close race turns up the pressure for Wednesday's final debate in Tempe, Arizona, when the White House rivals will have another chance to make their case to voters on domestic issues.

The poll found six percent of likely voters are still undecided about the race with barely more than three weeks to go until the Nov. 2 election, and 16 percent of the voters who identify themselves as independents are undecided.

Bush made small gains among young voters and Kerry picked up strength among women voters ahead of the debate -- the final chance for both candidates to speak directly to an audience of millions of voters.

"Wednesday's debate is vital because many sub-groups remain close and because so many independents have yet to make up their minds," pollster John Zogby said.

The poll of 1,214 likely voters was taken Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.

The last two days of polling came after Bush and Kerry battered each other over Iraq, jobs and taxes during a debate on Friday. The economy and Iraq are consistently listed as the top issues in the race.

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

The poll found 48 percent of voters thought the United States was headed in the wrong direction and 45 percent thought it was headed in the right direction.

It also showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Al Gore to cost him the election in 2000, earning the support of 1.7 percent of likely voters


TOPICS: Extended News; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: polls; zogby
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1 posted on 10/11/2004 4:28:15 AM PDT by foolscap
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To: foolscap
Really? Even when most other polls are showing a Bush lead holding or moving up...
2 posted on 10/11/2004 4:31:12 AM PDT by atomicpossum (If there are two Americas, John Edwards isn't qualified to lead either of them.©)
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To: foolscap
That's it. Bush is done. Finished. I think Cheney ought to resign, Bush can appoint Kerry as VEEP, and then BUSH can resign, leaving the government in the hands of the always-honest and upright John F'n Kerry.

Oh, yes, and uh....< \horsecrap>

3 posted on 10/11/2004 4:31:38 AM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
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To: foolscap

How the hell is this happening?


4 posted on 10/11/2004 4:31:56 AM PDT by RockinRight (John Kerry is the wrong candidate, for the wrong country, at the wrong time)
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To: Recovering_Democrat

It's just another Reuter-rooter.


5 posted on 10/11/2004 4:32:20 AM PDT by Fresh Wind (Heinz-Kerry: "The common man doesn't look at me as some rich witch.")
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To: foolscap
I didn't see a breakdown of those polled Democrat vs Republican.

Could this have anything to do with the unusual numbers?

6 posted on 10/11/2004 4:32:59 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: Recovering_Democrat

we're Doomed!~ /sarc


7 posted on 10/11/2004 4:33:09 AM PDT by mylife (Opinions~$1.00 Todays Special: Halfbaked~50. cents)
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Comment #8 Removed by Moderator

To: RockinRight

Daily tracking polls usually favor dems on weekends. At least that is what many freepers say.


9 posted on 10/11/2004 4:33:41 AM PDT by tirednvirginia
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To: atomicpossum

Amazing, a 7 point gain for Kerry since yesterday's Washington Post poll which had the President up 4 points.


10 posted on 10/11/2004 4:33:44 AM PDT by billhilly (If you're lurking here from DU (Democrats unglued), I trust this post will make you sick)
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To: RockinRight
How the hell is this happening?

It's not.

1. Zogby.

2. Three-day poll (i.e., first day was before the debate).

11 posted on 10/11/2004 4:34:01 AM PDT by brewcrew
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To: foolscap

Good. Zogby will help ensure that we don't get overconfident before Nov 2. Everybody Vote!


12 posted on 10/11/2004 4:35:39 AM PDT by jtmac40
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To: atomicpossum

There's something fishy-sounding about some of these polls. It looks like some of them have been used in a "rope a dope" fashion to influence public opinion. Seems like in the past there were some that were more accurate, but then like they went into the realm of "wishful thinking, so let's work on public opinion through controlled polling".


13 posted on 10/11/2004 4:36:37 AM PDT by Twinkie
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To: fortheDeclaration; atomicpossum; hchutch
I didn't see a breakdown of those polled Democrat vs Republican.

Could this have anything to do with the unusual numbers?

DING DING DING! No more calls, we have a winner!

14 posted on 10/11/2004 4:36:59 AM PDT by Poohbah (SKYBIRD SKYBIRD DO NOT ANSWER...SKYBIRD SKYBIRD DO NOT ANSWER)
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To: foolscap
I think you have to take the majority of all the polls to even get close to an acurrate assessment and then it's still somewhat specious.

Most polls show Bush with 5-7 point lead. Zogby, although has a track record of being quite accurate has been wrong recently as he showed in the last senatorial election.

With all that said, I do not discount his poll because he has been quite accurate before.

15 posted on 10/11/2004 4:38:29 AM PDT by sirchtruth (Words Mean Things...)
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To: foolscap

Expanded? What poll is Reuters looking at?


16 posted on 10/11/2004 4:39:21 AM PDT by BlessedBeGod
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To: billhilly

Actually ABC and Washington post used the same polling data, but each company interpreted it differently. Washington Post released their version (late yesterday) showing Bush up by 5, while ABC sauced it up to a 4 point lead. Pew, Harris, Maris, Gallup etc have Bush all up nationally. Zogby is a terrorist sympathizer, and hard-core dim shill!

LLS


17 posted on 10/11/2004 4:41:47 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (kerry... a girlie-man who built his life on a bedrock of lies, and derives his strength from EVIL!)
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To: foolscap
Oh no! A bad poll! Where's the nearest window??

Without the INTERNALS, there's no way to judge this poll as reported. Just continue to sharpen the long knives.

18 posted on 10/11/2004 4:42:31 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Why are we in Iraq? Just point the whiners here: http://www.massgraves.info)
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To: brewcrew
IMO Zogby's special sauce: DNC tells him how many votes they plan to steal and he figures it in so they can say that THE poll supported this unexpected win...

It's also supposed to dishearten us and whip up the enthusiasm of the thugs.

19 posted on 10/11/2004 4:43:02 AM PDT by Sal
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To: sirchtruth
I'm with you. I took heart from other polls, but this can't be ignored. Back to nail-biting.

Meanwhile, go read my thread
"Dems/MediaCrats, the Afghan Elections, and Voter Fraud"

20 posted on 10/11/2004 4:43:29 AM PDT by Timeout (Proud, card-carrying member of JAMMIE NATION)
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