Posted on 10/11/2004 3:58:59 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
'MORE taxes because I'm married ... what were they thinking?" That's the voice of a woman dubbed "Thinking Mom" in a new Bush campaign ad, and it's a voice that John Kerry needs to heed if he has any chance of being elected president. After the first presidential debate, Kerry improved markedly with a core Democratic constituency: single women, whose numbers are disproportionately elderly and black. But married women, genuine swing voters, still don't seem to like John Kerry. Unless those women warm up to him, it's hard to see how the Democrat can win.
Even as Kerry's debate performance shifted overall voter attitudes in his favor -- 39 percent said they had a "favorable" opinion of him before the debate in the ABC News poll, 47 percent afterwards -- married women didn't budge. Forty-eight percent viewed the Democrat unfavorably before the debate, 48 percent after the debate. No wonder George Bush is going after these voters so blatantly. If he can cut into the traditional Democrat advantage among women, the election is his.
Democrats have been depending on the distaff vote since 1980, when, even as he won the election in a landslide, Ronald Reagan only scored one point higher than Jimmy Carter with women. But the Republican challenger walloped the Democratic president by 17 points among men.
The difference between men and women's voting patterns was christened the gender gap, and Democrats have been counting on it ever since. Had the 19th Amendment never been ratified, Bob Dole would have been narrowly elected in 1996, since he bested Bill Clinton by a sliver of the men's vote. But, in a mirror image of Reagan's 1980 landslide, women went for Clinton by 16 points.
A lot of politicians have wasted a lot of breath trying to appeal to women on issues like abortion, but men and women don't vote any differently on social issues. Just like men, women vote in their economic self-interest, and, as people who are economically more vulnerable, they've tended to side with Democrats. Women also agree more with Democrats on the fundamental issue still dividing the parties -- the role of government.
While men will say that they want "the government off our backs," women hold less hostile views of taxpayer-financed programs. After all, the majority of Social Security, Medicare, welfare and food stamp recipients are women, which is one reason why the single women give Kerry 27 points over Bush in the ABC poll.
But even women who aren't beneficiaries of programs are often caretakers of older relatives dependant on some help from the government. And many women work in libraries, schools, arts councils and hospitals -- places with some public financing component.
In the last presidential campaign, George Bush made a straight appeal to women by talking about compassionate conservatism. But it didn't work. He lost the women's vote by 11 points; Al Gore won it by the same margin. Those numbers were reversed on the male side but since more women voted than men, Gore took the popular vote.
In last week's polls, men strongly back Bush -- he leads by double digits. That would still be manageable for Kerry if he repeated the pattern of his predecessors among women.
So far, he runs at best a point or two ahead of Bush with females, or, in some surveys, a point or two behind. It's those married women who are giving the Democrat grief: in ABC's poll they preferred the president by a whopping 21 points, compared to the one point edge they gave Bush in 2000.
Much has been made this year about "security moms," campaign strategists' shorthand to describe women who are concerned about their children and going for Bush on the bottom-line question of which candidate will keep the country safe. But the slight difference between married and unmarried women on that issue doesn't account for the huge gulf in their candidate preference.
It's something about John Kerry that these women just don't like, or maybe something about George Bush that they do. Married women are more likely than any other group in the population to give the President credit for understanding their problems. John Kerry's got to find a way to convince them that he understands too -- that he will keep their children safe and use their money well. It's a tall order and he has to fill it without being condescending, because women appreciate a campaign ad aimed at "Thinking Moms."
Gee, what's not to like about Johnny Gigolo?
Kerry's all talk and no action.
Kerry's all hat and no cattle.
Kerry's a liar.
John Kerry just needs someting to do with his time. Well it's true rich folks get on boards and CEO of USA is the prize position!
And yet women elected a rapist predator twice...the difference?
I dunno, but Klintoon had a Svengali-like look in his eye and a hypnotic voice (apparently) that led to the "arousal gap" as termed by Rush.
JFKerry, OTOH, is a cold fish who exudes distance, and smiles only with great labor - those furrows in his brow give him a perpetual depressed look.
So, it appears that it is not the "issues" that draw women to their president - its the arousal, stupid.
I will refrain from commenting on what - if anything - that says about the wisdom of the 19th Amendment.
Kerry is the type of oily opportunist we hope our children don't have to deal with when they grow up.
Yes. Kerry is a flim-flam man.
What about all those women who didn't vote for Clinton?
Your bush is too broad Al.
***It's something about John Kerry that these women just don't like...***
How about . . . EVERYTHING????
He has combined the cosmopolitan graces of Michael Caine with the sympathy angle of a wheel-chaired war veteran... Steve Martin.
I heard a story that Kerry was seen at a posh restaurant with a young, liberal debutant... and the debutant was heard scolding him for his lack of commitment on certain, social issues.
Kerry cupped her hand in his... looked her in the eye and said... “Baby... I'm ready to make a commitment to you right now.”
Take it for what it's worth.
To which I replied-maybe it's the other way around. Perhaps, the Sun Belt towns aren't Republican because they are better off, they are better off because they're Republican. Maybe the "rust belt" towns are less well off because they vote Dem, not the other way around. He was speechless.
Wow. Cokie Roberts co-wrote this? The message must really be getting through!
Help me out here.
Bush leads with men by double-digits, and tied with women voters.
So where does Zogby/Reuters get its numbers showing Kerry ahead?
Aliens?
Michael Moore?
I find that discussion fascinating.
I wonder if studies have been done on the economies of various counties and their voting inclinations.
As you wonder, is it that the local economies are directly correlated to their political persuasion, and NOT the other way around?
What a bold, brave, politically-incorrect study this would be!
tsk tsk. I would guess most women have encoutered Clinton's type by the time they are twenty - the instant, unearned intimacy - and why any one would be taken in more than once I do not know.
I'm surprised he didn't say she was drunk. That seems to be one of his favorite put downs when someone gets in his face.
Bravo!!
Dem followers always see the government as Big Daddy taking care of the poor little working people. And the Dem elites are walking out of their skins to project this image. Totally third-world socialist agenda. If America buys it, then this is what America wants. Howerever, as wise Texas Ranger Walker used to say say: choices and consequences, man.
It must be the youth vote - they have so many sub-categories and breakdowns - I can't wait for November 2.
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