AIDS in Central Asia: It's about the economy

Asia TImes ^ | 10.09.04 | Edmund Settle

[Dr. Marten]

AIDS in Central Asia: It's about the economy
By Edmund Settle

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.

BEIJING - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has held no fewer than three meetings since July to discuss further regional economic integration and energy security, while simultaneously trying to strengthen the organiztion's response to regional threats such as terrorism, all of which point to the SCO's maturity and consolidation. The third session was held in late September and attended by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.

Although the SCO's multilateral cooperation on these issues is essential for regional stability, failure to include AIDS as a potential economic and security threat on its expanding agenda could endanger Central Asia's long-term economic growth and security.

The SCO, which comprises China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Russia, is a regional organization that originated from Sino-Russian border negotiations in the 1990s. While its focus has been on combating the so-called three forces of evil - international terrorism, ethnic separatism and religious extremism - the areas of cooperation have expanded to include economic and energy security, as well as other trans-border security concerns such as drug trafficking and environmental degradation.

Central Asia has a population of well over 227 million, including western China's Xinjiang region with more than 19 million, and Turkmenistan with only 4.6 million people, though Turkmenistan is not a member of the SCO. Central Asia, according to the definition used here, does not include other bordering regions in Russia and elsewhere.

Central Asia's HIV (human immunodeficiency virus, which can cause AIDS) rate is estimated at up to 90,000 cases, with more than 8,000 cases registered. Kazakhstan, China's and Russia's common neighbor and Central Asia's largest and richest country in resources, is estimated alone to have more than 25,000 cases, mostly among young intravenous drug users. Kyrgyzstan reports 534 confirmed HIV cases, of whom 82% are intravenous drug users.

In comparison, China and Russia are both on the brink of an AIDS catastrophe, individually having up to a million estimated AIDS cases each, which could potentially spill over into Central Asia.

An unchecked AIDS epidemic in Central Asia would have a significant impact on the region's economic growth, removing the ailing from the workforce and imposing increasing financial drains on governments. This drain on manpower and resources would undermine governments' abilities to socio-economic and security functions, and indirectly affect the effectiveness of SCO cooperation among member states. A recent report estimated that the uncontrolled spread of HIV would reduce the regional annual economic growth rate by as much as 1%. More specifically, economic growth in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan could be reduced by nearly 10% and about 21% in Uzbekistan in the next decade.

HIV/AIDS is a recognized threat to both human security and the state's traditional security interests. In addition to the risk of extremist groups filling the economic, social and political voids left by HIV/AIDS, SCO leaders should jointly recognize that high HIV rates among state militaries and security forces could seriously affect their capacity to maintain social stability and respond to regional terrorism threats.

The Russian army recently announced that since 1989 some 2,607 Russian servicemen have been confirmed HIV-positive, and one-third of its new military conscripts are deemed unfit for service because of HIV or hepatitis infections. More disturbing, Tajikistan's armed forces' HIV-infection rate is reported to be seven times as high as that of the general population, and China only began testing its new recruits for HIV in 2001.

In June Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan signed an agreement to implement a US$25 million regional HIV/AIDS prevention project, excluding China and Russia. Successful experiences indicate that effective regional HIV/AIDS control and prevention schemes require inclusive multilateral efforts. As Central Asia's economic integration with China and Russia creates tidal waves of human movements across national boundaries, there is a greater risk HIV spreading along the increasing regional rail and road links, hence a more urgent need for full regional cooperation.

The SCO has accumulated valuable experience in coordinating member states' policies in defense, foreign policy, anti-terrorism and recently economic cooperation. Clearly, it would be prescient and beneficial to all member states if their respective health ministries could design and develop cooperative measures to diversify channels of information sharing, coordinate education and prevention programs, develop joint voluntary testing mechanisms, and implement border screening and other prevention and control measures.

The SCO's potential as an influential and truly effective regional organization could be tested in how it can effectively coordinate regional non-traditional security issues, such as the spread of HIV. Such cooperation would expand the scope of the organization and anchor it in a more dynamic and multifaceted structure, thus contributing to the long-term growth and stability in Central Asia, as well as in China and Russia.

Edmund Settle is a research associate with the Chinese Center for Disease Control in Beijing and founder of China AIDS Survey, http://www.chain.net.cn/aidsenglish/index.htm  . Dr Jing-dong Yuan, who contributed to this article, is director of research, East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, and visiting associate professor of international policy studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, California.

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.