If Kerry doesn't win Ohio he will not be President.
Because of the very real potential to win Wisconsin, Bush can now lose Ohio and still have a reasonable chance for victory.
If Bush does lose Ohio, but brings in Wisconsin, he will have to swing FIVE Electoral Votes to win.
President Bush has four different scenarios through which he could gain these votes. The best bet right now looks to be Iowa's 7 Electoral Votes.
It will still be very difficult for GWB to win without OH. He will almost certainly have to hold on to NH, NV, and WV. Plus he must add WI and one or two others, most likely NM and IA. NM seems to be leaning slightly to the GOP now but IA is back to leaning Kerry. I guess it is just populated by morons. ;-)
If Bush takes CO but they vote to split their electoral votes then Kerry picks up probably 3 or 4 there. Plus this idiot GOP elector in WV says he may defect and not vote for Bush. I think Mr Bush must end up with at least 275 on election night or this could take a while to decide. The best strategy is to make sure FL is solid and then pour every available resource into OH. I dont see how the Repubs can lose without it.
Answer: Zero. Is it possible that Bush can win without Ohio? Yes, but it is very unlikely. Bush needs Ohio, period.
-T